Wind Advisory 52, NWS Fairbanks, AK

870 
WWAK73 PAFG 041127 CCA
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
327 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018

AKZ226-042000-
/O.COR.PAFG.WI.Y.0052.181004T1127Z-181004T2000Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
327 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT TODAY...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect until noon AKDT today. 

* LOCATION...Isabel Pass.

* WINDS...South 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will die down late this morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

358 
WWAK73 PAFG 041959
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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1159 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018

AKZ226-042100-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-181004T2000Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
1159 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Wind
Advisory. 

Strong gusty winds are diminishing and will continue into the
afternoon.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
302 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Synopsis...
A slow progression of the current overall pattern will result in
continued pleasant weather across much of the state to the north
and east of the Y-K Delta. The remnants of Typhoon Trami continue
to swirl in the central Bering Sea, bringing showers and clouds
to the West Coast from the Bering Strait to the Y-K Delta and
areas south. A slow shift in the current setup is anticipated this
weekend as unsettled weather moves into the Interior.

Aloft 500 mb...
A pronounced ridge axis extends southward through the eastern
interior from a 568 dam high centered 500 nm north of Prudhoe
Bay. This feature is responsible for the above average high
temperatures across much of the Interior. Over the next several
days, the high will slowly weaken and move southeastward, allowing
cooler temperatures to infiltrate the low and mid levels. A 508
dam low centered over the Central Bering Sea associated with the
remnants of Trami will remain in place and slowly weaken over the
next few days. However, as the high to the northeast decays, a
series of shortwaves will move eastward into the Interior,
exploiting the weakness in the ridge. This process will begin late
Thursday and accelerate into the weekend as the high begins to
drift more rapidly to the southeast. By Saturday, models begin to
show significant discrepancies with far reaching consequences into
the forecast for next week.

Models...
Good overall verification against the 03/18Z analysis, although
generally around 2 to 3 mb too high along the Beaufort coast. This
indicates guidance may be about 3 to 5 kt too strong in this
region. Run to run consistency remains decent in the 0 to 3 day
range, but beyond this timeframe, major discrepancies become
quickly apparent. By Saturday, a zonally oriented trough will
migrate eastward across Northern Canada as the ridge over the
eastern Interior weakens. The GFS then suggests this feature will
remain an open trough as it begins to track southward, consistent
with the southeastward track of the ridge axis. The ECMWF however,
shows a deep closed low begin to develop due south of the high,
followed by a retrograding track to the northwest. As it is
difficult to justify a closed low deepening in the middle of a
ridge axis without any major dynamics in play, we will lean
towards the GFS beyond day 3, unless further evidence for this
strange scenario becomes apparent.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Dominant high pressure in the northern Beaufort Sea continues to
drive brisk easterly winds across the North Slope and offshore
waters. Mostly clear conditions will persist over the next several
days, though a few isolated areas of marine layer stratus and
scud are possible. Temperatures will decrease over the next few
days as the high erodes, especially farther inland where winds
will be relatively calmer.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Strong offshore winds will continue for much of the west coast
over the next few days, accompanied by cloudy, showery conditions
for areas south of the Bering Strait. A core of 25 to 30 kt
southeast winds extends well east of the center of low pressure.
Winds will begin to slowly decrease this evening as the low
weakens, but winds will be a constant over the next few days.
Scattered showers and gusty winds will begin to move farther
inland as the ridge in the east begins to break down, reaching
Buckland to Galena by Thursday afternoon then Ambler to Tanana by
Friday morning.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Aside from a gradual cooling trend in daytime high temperatures,
no major deviations to the current weather pattern are expected.
The ridge axis will continue to promote unseasonable warmth and
clear skies into the weekend. However, a weather front will begin
to creep eastward into the central Interior Friday as broad
Bering Sea low pressure takes advantage of the weakening ridge. On
and off again southerly gap flow through the Alaska Range will
continue for the next several days, particularly through Windy
Pass and areas of the western Alaska Range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
The remnants of Typhoon Trami will continue to dissipate in the
Bering sea with winds gradually diminishing. No significant
coastal issues are expected at this time.
&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

COWMAN OCT 18