Wind Advisory 48, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
436 AM AKDT Sat Sep 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
Westerly flow over the northern half of Alaska will persist
through the middle of next week. This will keep northern Alaska
generally cloudy with temperatures generally near to above normal,
with the wettest conditions from the Brooks Range north.

A series of strong short waves will move from the Arctic Coast of
Russia east across the North Slope of Alaska through the middle of
next week, bringing periods of moderate to strong west winds and
rain/snow to the North Slope.

Surface...
A 982 mb 300 NM northeast of Demarcation Point will move to near
Banks Island as a 985 mb low by 4pm Sat and then continue east. A
cold front extending from this low to Demarcation Point to
Wainwright to a 995 mb low near Wrangel Island, will move by 4pm
Sat to Old Crow to a 998 MB low near Atigun Pass to Cape Lisburne.
By 4am Sun the front will move to Dawson to a 1008 mb low near
Eagle to Point Lay to a 1004 mb low north of Wrangel Island. By
4pm Sun the front will move to Chicken to Bettles to Wainwright to
a 999 mb low 300 NM northwest of Barrow. By 4am Mon the front
will be from Chicken to Deadhorse to a 998 mb Low 250 nm north of
Barrow, with a cold front from the low to Barrow to Point Lay and
west. By 4pm Mon the low will be a 1001 mb low 200 NM north of
Demarcation Point with a cold front from the low to Barter Island
to Point Lay to a 1005 mb low near Wrangel Island.

Rain, and snow above 3500 feet, will continue today along the
front over NE Alaska. Expect another 4 inches of snow above 3500
feet today over the Eastern Brooks Range, with .50-1.00 inch of
rain below 3500 feet in zone 206. Will continue Winter Weather
Warning for Heavy snow in zone 206 through this afternoon. Will
need to watch precip amounts in zone 206 for possible high water
issues on rivers there for Sun into next week.

Expect 0.25 inch of rain along the front south of the Brooks Range
today and tonight. Rain will likely reach Fairbanks about 4pm Sat.
Could see up to 0.50 inch of rain over the Tanana Yukon Uplands
north and east of Fairbanks for this afternoon through Sun.
Expect west winds 20kt gusting to 30kt along and just south of
the front today then dropping gradually tonight. Rain and snow
will taper off north of the front today over the North Slope, and
taper off over the Interior north of the front Sun. Will see rain
along the front continue over the SE Interior into Sun.

The low moving east north of the Arctic Coast Sun night and Mon
will bring another round of west winds of 20-30kt from Barrow east
on Sun night and Mon. Can expect another round of high surf from
Barrow East Sun Night and Mon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft, but all models are 6mb too weak at
06Z Sat on the depth of the frontal wave north of Wrangel Island
and on the low north of Demarcation Point. NAM maintains both of
these features deeper than the ECMF and GFS they move east today.
Expect both features to remain about 5mb deeper than even the NAM
indicated through 4pm Sat. Expect the NAM to be 2-3 hrs too fast
on timing of these features, since the deeper features will tend
to move more slowly. As a result, we will use the NAM timing
slowed down 2-3 hrs through 4pm Sat, and will bump winds up 3-5kt
around the low centers. After today, the NAM and GFS bring a much
deeper low center into the northern Chukchi Sea Sun than the ECMF
indicates, and keep this much deeper as it moves east to the
Beaufort Sea by Mon. The GFS and NAM are preferred Sun and Mon as
the strong dynamics and strong thermal contrast lend themselves to
a stronger surface feature per the GFS/NAM.

What this means is that we will go with the NAM solution through
4PM Sat, but with a slightly slower and deeper low moving east
across the Brooks Range today. The tonight we will merge to the
GFS solution by 4am Sun, and maintain the GFS solution through
Mon PM.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Surf along the Arctic Coast now diminishing.
Another round of high surf possible from Barrow east
Sun night and Mon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Another .50-1.00 inch of rain below 3500 feet in zone 206 today.
Will need to watch precip amounts in zone 206 for possible high
water issues on rivers there for Sun into next week.

Expect 0.25 inch of rain along the front south of the Brooks Range
today and tonight. Rain will likely reach Fairbanks about 4pm Sat.
Could see up to 0.50 inch of rain over the Tanana Yukon Uplands
north and east of Fairbanks for this afternoon through Sun which
will keep rivers high. Highest amounts are east of Two Rivers.
Could see flooding on the upper Chena Sun PM, but will wait to
see how much rain falls there today.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory for AKZ222.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ206.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240.
&&

SEP 18