Wind Advisory 46, NWS Fairbanks, AK

894 
WWAK73 PAFG 210739
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1139 PM AKDT Mon Aug 20 2018

AKZ223-226-210845-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-180821T1200Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, Healy Lake, 
Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, 
Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
1139 PM AKDT Mon Aug 20 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Wind
Advisory. 



$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
524 AM AKDT Mon Aug 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A progressive and somewhat active pattern is expected the area for
the next few days. The main forecast challenges that we are
dealing with on this shift are continued winds in the Alaska
Range today along with an area of low pressure that will will
bring rainfall along with areas of gusty winds to the Interior on
Tuesday. The 06z deterministic models generally initialized well
and are in good agreement with the overall synoptic scale features
out through the middle of the upcoming workweek.

Aloft, at 500 mb, from the Panhandle into the southern Chukchi
Sea. A 555 dam low currently in the north Pacific will move to
near King Salmon by early Tuesday morning. As the low and
associated trough continue to push to the north on Tuesday it will
push the aforementioned ridge east into the Yukon Territory. By
late Tuesday evening the low will be located near Eagle. Much of
the area will be under the influence of a broad trough Wednesday
into the weekend.

Central and Eastern Interior: Strong gap winds are currently being
observed in the ALaska Range. Our current expectation is that
winds will die down this morning as the pressure gradient across
the range relaxes. I trimmed back the ongoing wind advisories to
end later this morning. Today is expected to be the warmest day of
the week. A pattern change is expected for Tuesday as an area of
low pressure moves into the Interior. Much of the Interior will
see rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.0 inches Tuesday morning into
Wednesday afternoon with this system. As the surface low moves to
near Eagle Tuesday night we expect south to southwesterly winds to
pick up in the Alaska Range as well as in the upper Tanana
Valley. At the same time gusty northerly winds are expected in the
Yukon Flats. Winds should die down during the day on Wednesday. A
cool showery pattern will persist Wednesday through the end of
the week. Both the ECMWF and the GFS seem to agree in a break in
the showers at some point on Saturday as an upper ridge moves
across; however, they differ some on the timing. Both models bring
a good push of rainfall as southwesterly flow moves in behind the
ridge at some point on Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior: A front that is currently
stretches from the Central Brooks Range into the Yukon Delta will
push north today with rainfall expected along the front. South of
the front we expect a few scattered showers today. A system
pushing up from the south on Tuesday will bring rainfall to the
western Interior. A showery pattern is expected for Wednesday and
Thursday. A brief break from the precipitation is expected for
Friday with a more significant rainfall expected at some point
late Saturday or Sunday (the GFS is about 12 hours faster with
this than the ECMWF right now).

North Slope and Brooks Range: With high pressure building south
along the Beaufort Sea coast we expect fog and low ceilings to be
an issue along the coast into Tuesday. A northward moving front
will bring rainfall to the Brooks Range today before diminishing
tonight. Easterly winds will pick up on Tuesday as the moves to to
the south and low pressure moves into the Interior.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today will be the warmest day of the week for the Interior with
some locations making it up into the low 70s. Southerly gap winds
are expected to persist in the Alaska Range this morning before
weakening in the afternoon. A pattern change is expected tomorrow
for the Interior. An area of low pressure will move in from the
south bringing cooler temperatures along with widespread wetting
rainfall. Much of the Interior will see rainfall amounts of 0.5 to
1.0 inches Tuesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. Cool and
showery conditions are expected Wednesday through the end of the
week. Another round of wetting rain is expected to push from west
to east across the West Coast and the Interior next weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Recent rainfall on the north side of the Brooks Range as brought
high water levels to rivers draining the area. Most of the rivers
on the North Slope have either already crested or will crest very
soon. Water levels will continue to decrease through the middle of
the week. Much of the Interior will see rainfall amounts of 0.5 to
1.0 inches Tuesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. This will
cause rivers in the Interior to begin rising late Tuesday with
some rivers reaching bankfull by Thursday. We will have to
continue to monitor this situation.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

AUG 18