Wind Advisory 15, NWS Fairbanks, AK

022 
WWAK72 PAFG 040924
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
124 AM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

AKZ215-227-041030-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-180404T1400Z/
Lower Yukon Valley-Upper Kuskokwim Valley-
Including Russian Mission, Grayling, Holy Cross, Shageluk, Anvik,
Flat, McGrath, Nikolai, Takotna, and Farewell Lake
124 AM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Wind
Advisory. 



$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
142 PM AKDT Tue Apr 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
A ridge over the Bering Sea will build northeast of the Chukchi
and Beaufort Seas Wed, and then weaken slowly Thu and Fri.
A 518 dm low aloft over the Copper River Basin will move west to
near Bethel as a 515 dm low by 4pm Wed, to near Scammon Bay as a
511 DM low by 4pm Thu, and to near Provideniya as a 515 DM low by
4pm Fri. There will be strong NE flow aloft between these two
features today through Wed, then weakening Thu.

There area patches of mid to high levels clouds, flurries and
colder air mass associated with the low aloft that will spread
west across the Interior through Wed, with low level clouds and
snow associated with the low Thu-Fri along the West Coast and
Western Interior. Will see warming Thu and Fri over Interior as
southerly flow aloft develops.

Surface...
A 1048 mb high north of Barrow with a ridge stretching to the
Chukotsk Peninsula will persist through Thu and then weaken Fri.

A 1034 mb low 200 NM northeast of Barter Island will become a
surface trough over the Eastern North Slope by 4am Wed, from
Barter Island to Atigun Pass to Barrow by 4pm Wed, and then
stretching from just south of Barter Island to Point Lay by 4am
Thu and then persisting into Fri. There are low clouds and
flurries along the Low and trough which will spread west with this
trough. East winds north of the low/trough will spread across the
Arctic Coast north of the trough, then increase Wed night and Thu.
Will see east winds increasing and areas of blowing snow along
the coast starting Wed evening, with east winds gusting 40 mph
low visibility in blowing snow from Point Lay south Wed night into
Thu, and east of Deadhorse Thu.

A 1010 mb low near Kodiak will deepen to 1004 mb low near Kodiak
by 4am Wed, move to Dillingham as a 1006 mb low by 4pm Wed, to
near Bethel as a 1005 mb low by 4am thu, to near Mekoryuk as a
1004 mb low by 4pm Thu, and to near Gambell as a 1006 mb low by
4pm Fri. An occluded weather front stretching east from the low
will move along the Alaska Range by 4am Wed, to Dillingham to
McGrath to Northway by 4pm Wed, to Bethel to Unalakleet to
Northway by 4am Thu, to the YK Delta to Shaktoolik to Tanana to
Northway by 4pm, and to Provideniya to Eagle by 4pm Fri. Expect to
see increased easterly winds over the Interior and West Coast
ahead of the weather front. Will see east winds increasing tonight
to 25 mph gusting to 40 mph in channeled areas of zones 207 208
209 210 211 212 216 217 218 219 220 221 and 222 along with blowing
snow drifting snow. See WWA for details. Will also see scattered
to broken clouds and flurries move north with this front. Will
also see south winds gusting 30-40 mph through Alaska Range passes
after the front moves north of the Alaska Range Wed pm into Thu.

An arctic cold front extending south from the low mentioned above
will move to Dillingham to Port Heiden by 4pm Wed, to Bethel to
Kodiak by 4am Thu, to the YK Delta to Kodiak by 4pm Thu, then
moving northwest to the Bering Strait to Illiamna by 4pm Fri.
Expect several inches of snow with this front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft and show similar solutions through
4am Fri, then start to see difference in strength of short wave
over the West Coast of Alaska, with the GFS maintaining a deeper
trough than the NAM and ECMF. Model differences increasing on the
weekend. Favor the ECMF from Fri into the weekend.

At the surface, all models initialize too weak on the low that is
northeast of Barter Island and too strong on the high north of
Barrow. Result is about the same weak gradient over the Arctic
Coast with light north winds today into tonight.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ216-AKZ217-
AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

JB APR 18