Small Craft Advisory 96, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
121 PM AKDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Aloft 500 mb... A deep 510 dam semi-stationary low will persist
around Banks Island for the next several days. A 521 dam low
situated near 76N 170W will sweep southeast and continue east,
eventually merging with the low near Banks Island. A cutoff 545
dam low over Bristol Bay will meander slowly south and deepen to
538 dam over the North Pacific on Saturday while ridging begins
to build over the Interior. Ridging over the Interior will persist
into Monday. Models begin to diverge by Tuesday on the timing
of moisture coming up from the Gulf of Alaska.

North Slope...
A cold front sweeping east across the Arctic coast this evening
will keep winds strong into the evening for areas along the
immediate coast and higher terrain of the Brooks Range. Rain,
heavy at times, will continue across the North Slope into the
weekend. Rainfall so far has been between 0.25 to 0.75 inches for
areas of the Brooks range. Moist westerly flow will continue into
Sunday afternoon with additional rainfall from 2 to 4 inches
possible. The heaviest rain is expected east of Anaktuvuk Pass.
This rainfall will cause significant rises on area rivers
especially the SAG river this weekend into early next week.
A second surface low will move across the north slope on Saturday
with an associated mid level shortwave enhancing the showers.
Rain will begin to taper off for the north slope and Brooks
range by Sunday evening.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A weak ridge extending east out of the Bering Sea will keep
conditions quiet across much of the region over the next several
days. Temperatures will remain seasonably warm into the weekend.
The ridge will provide a respite from clouds and showers through
late this weekend, though southwest flow may initiate some shower
activity across south facing shores. By Sunday, showers associated
with a north Pacific low will begin to move up the Y-K Delta into
the interior.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Isolated shower activity will continue across the Interior
this afternoon as a weak mid lvl shortwave pushes south across
the area. Additionally, an increase in winds is anticipated to
develop late Thursday into Saturday, particularly across the
higher terrain north and east of the Tanana Valley. Wind gusts up
to 35 mph are possible over highway summits, with up to 25 mph
across lower elevations near Fairbanks. A ridge over the southeast
will build into the interior this weekend, pushing temperatures
back into the 70s. By early next week, a Pacific low will
initiate Chinook conditions as strong southerly flow develops
across the Alaska Range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure is expected to continue building into the interior
from the west and southeast. Warmer temperatures and drier
conditions are expected into the weekend. Southwest flow will help
moderate relative humidities, as most areas will remain well above
40 percent. However the upper Tanana Valley east of Delta Junction
may see RH values in the low to mid 30s by Saturday.

HYDROLOGY...
Significant Rainfall through the weekend for the Brooks range. A
weather front is moving across the Brooks range today and has
brought between 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain to many areas of the
Brooks Range. Moist westerly flow will continue into Sunday
afternoon with additional rainfall from 2 to 4 inches possible.
The heaviest rain is expected east of Anaktuvuk Pass. This
rainfall will cause significant rises on area rivers especially
the SAG river this weekend into early next week. Individuals
should be prepared for rising water levels and move property off
of gravel bars as soon as possible. For the latest information go
to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245.
&&

JK AUG 18