Small Craft Advisory 49, NWS Fairbanks, AK

752 
FZAK52 PAFG 102242
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
242 PM AKDT Sun Jun 10 2018

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-111415-
242 PM AKDT Sun Jun 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 988 mb low 300 nm northeast of Demarcation Point will weaken 
slowly and drift north through Tuesday. A cold front stretching 
from this low to Inuvik to Fairbanks to the Bering Strait will 
move to south of the Yukon Delta late Sun night. 

$$

PKZ200-111415-
Norton Sound-
242 PM AKDT Sun Jun 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-111415-
Dall Point to Wales-
242 PM AKDT Sun Jun 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-111415-
Kotzebue Sound-
242 PM AKDT Sun Jun 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-111415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
242 PM AKDT Sun Jun 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

Jun 18

357 
FZAK52 PAFG 111228
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
428 AM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-120215-
428 AM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A ridge of high pressure that is centered over eastern Russia will
build east today across the Bering Sea. High Pressure will 
persist over the Bering Sea through the middle of the week. A 
trough of low pressure will move west into the southern Chukchi 
Sea Tuesday night. 

$$

PKZ200-120215-
Norton Sound-
428 AM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.TODAY...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-120215-
Dall Point to Wales-
428 AM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.TODAY...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-120215-
Kotzebue Sound-
428 AM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-120215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
428 AM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.TODAY...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 5 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

Jun 18

160 
FZAK52 PAFG 112222
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
222 PM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-121600-
222 PM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A ridge of high pressure will persist over the Bering Sea through
the middle of the week. A trough of low pressure will move west 
into the southern Chukchi Sea Tuesday night.

$$

PKZ200-121600-
Norton Sound-
222 PM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-121600-
Dall Point to Wales-
222 PM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-121600-
Kotzebue Sound-
222 PM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-121600-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
222 PM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 5 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

Jun 18

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
250 PM AKDT Sat Jun 9 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
The long wave pattern over Alaska undergoing a big change over
the next several days into a much cooler pattern. The long wave
ridge over Northern AK will morph into a long wave trough northern
AK on Sun, with the trough deepening on Mon. The long wave trough
is expected to persist through at least mid- week. This will
bring much colder and wetter conditions Sun and Sun night, with
much below normal temperatures and drier conditions expected Mon
into Tue. Cool and generally dry conditions will persist through
mid-week.

Surface...
A thermal low pressure trough that lies from Eagle to Livengood
to the Seward Peninsula, will move to Eagle to Fairbanks to Anvik
by 4am Sun, to Eagle to Fairbanks to McGrath by 4pm Sun, to
Northway to Mentasta by 4am Mon, then stationary and weakening
Mon. Isolated thunderstorms will occur along and southeast of this
trough this afternoon/evening with small hail and gusty winds.
Expect scattered thunderstorms will occur this PM along and south
of this trough over zones 224, southern 220. Expect isolated
thunderstorms along and southeast of this trough Sun PM, and Mon
PM.

An arctic cold front that lies 200 nm north of Demarcation Point
to Barrow then west, will move to Inuvik to Arctic Village to
Point Lay by 4am Sun, to Old Crow to Livengood to the Yukon Delta
by 4pm Sun, to 50 nm north of Eagle to Denali to McGrath by 4am
Mon, and to Eagle to Isabell Pass by 4pm Mon, then weakening into
Tue. West winds 25-35 mph, with gust to 50 mph near Barter
Island, are now occuring along the front over the Arctic Coast and
will continue into Sun. Snow will occur with the front from the
Brooks range north. Expect 2-4 inches along the coast through Sun,
with up to one foot in the Brooks Range from Atigun Pass east.

With the front will see downslope conditions and north winds
20g30 mph on the south slopes of the Brooks Range and NW Interior
Sun and Sun night. With rh falling to 25-30% this will cause an
uptick on fires near the NW Interior and south slopes of the
Brooks range Sun.

Winds will be NW 15g25 mph with the front across the remainder of
the Interior and West Coast Sun into Sun night, then decreasing
Mon. Expect isolated to scattered showers along the front over the
southern Interior Sun and Sun night, but will see numerous showers
in the Southeast Interior SE of Fairbanks to Old Crow Sun and Sun
night with 0.25-0.50 inch of rain. As the front merges with the
thermal trough over the extreme SE Interior could see up to 1.00
inch of rain Sun night and Mon over the Eastern Alaska Range.
This will cause rises in rivers draining AK Range east of the
Richardson Hwy Sun night into Tue. Since this may be convective
will need to keep watch over Eastern AK Range precip amounts Sun
night into Mon night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well and show similar solutions through 4pm
Sun. After that the ECMF and NAM remain similar into Tue while the
GFS deviates from them, especially with 850 mb temps. The GFS
moderates the 850 mb temperatures significantly Mon as the cold
front moves south of the Brooks Range, while the ECMF and NAM
bring the cold air south across the Interior. Since this is a
strong cold front with strong flow aloft, favor a mix of the ECMF
and NAM solutions Mon into Tue. Will use

Looks like GFS and ECMF operational runs keep deep H500 low over
NW AK for most of the coming week. ECMF solution of deepening the
low late in the week seems unlikely since there do not appear to
be any additional large scale intrusions of cold air into the low
and seems unlikely to develop any this time of year. That said,
GFS solution of gradual weakening of H500 low in NW AK seems more
reasonable and will merge towards mix of ensembles late next week
considering lingering run to run model variance within an overall
similar larger scale pattern evolution.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Will see downslope conditions and north winds 20g30 mph on the
south slopes of the Brooks Range and NW Interior Sun and Sun
night. With rh falling to 25-30% this will cause an uptick on
fires over NW Interior and near the south slopes of the Brooks
Range on Sun. Winds will be NW 15g25 mph across the remainder of
the Interior and West Coast Sun into Sun night, then decreasing
Mon. Rh Values of 30-40% over the West Coast and Western Interior
could be an issues with these winds on Sun. In the Interior from
Fairbanks east, expect showers and higher humidities on Sun to
mitigate impacts of winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Will see numerous showers in the Southeast Interior SE of
Fairbanks to Old Crow Sun and Sun night with 0.25-0.50 inch of
rain. As the front merges with the thermal trough over the extreme
SE Interior could see up to 1.00 inch of rain Sun night and Mon
over the Eastern Alaska Range. This will cause rises in rivers
draining AK Range east of the Richardson Hwy Sun night into Tue.
Since this may be convective will need to keep watch over Eastern
AK Range precip amounts Sun night into Mon night.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ206.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

JB JUN 18