Small Craft Advisory 37, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
244 AM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Aloft, at 500 mb, models in good agreement with a
weak 540 dam low moving over the central Brooks range today
and with a ridge that will build again over the Interior
Friday into Saturday. The weak low will move across
the eastern Brooks range today and dissipate on Friday.
A 536 dam low currently just south of Wrangel Island will move
south across the Chukotsk Peninsula on Thursday and will reach St.
Lawrence Island by Friday morning. Broad low pressure will remain
over the west coast through Sunday.

Surface... A 1028 mb high pressure will build to 1030 mb
and persist into the weekend over the Arctic Ocean. Weak
high pressure will give way to weak low pressure over the west
coast through the weekend. The thermal trough will restrengthen
over the southern interior on Friday and persist into the
weeekend.

Central and Eastern Interior. Scattered showers will diminish
as the upper level low pushes to the eastern Brooks range. A
general warming trend in temperatures is expected through the
weekend as the ridge builds in aloft. The pressure gradient will
also tighten up across the Interior Friday afternoon bringing
increasing east to northeast winds. Winds likely to approach wind
advisory criteria Friday afternoon into Friday evening over
higher terrain north of Fairbanks. Will recommend the day
shift to look into advisories for zones 219 220 and 222. Fairbanks
could see gusts to 25 mph Friday evening. The leeside trough will
restrengthen Friday evening into Saturday. This will will bring
strong southerly gap winds for the Alaska range and near Delta
Junction on Saturday.

West Coast and Western Interior: Lower stratus and patchy fog
will persist along the coast into Thursday as high pressure
remains in place over the Bering Sea. Showers will taper off
today but weak low pressure will bring another round
of showers to the west coast on Friday. The west coast weather
will remain unsettled into the weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range: Upper level low will spread showers
across the eastern Brooks Range and Beaufort Sea coast on
Thursday. Precipitation type will be snow along the coast and in
the higher elevations of the Brooks Range. Snowfall amounts will
generally be under two inches. High pressure will build along
the north slope through Saturday. Areas of stratus and fog will
likely persist along the north slope. A strong pressure gradient
will develop on Saturday and increase the easterly winds on
Saturday. East winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are
possible on Saturday.

Coastal
Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

FIRE WEATHER...
A general warming and drying trend is expected through Saturday
with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s by the weekend.
Near red flag conditions on Saturday as strong winds on Saturday
will be combined with minimum relative humidity values around 25
percent in the area just south of Delta Junction. No
thunderstorms are expected for Thursday or Friday.

HYDROLOGY...
Breakup is progressing across the Yukon Basin. The Yukon is mostly
open up through Nulato. There is some open water from Nulato to
Grayling with the river mostly ice covered from Grayling to the
Delta. Residents in the lower Yukon Valley should continue to
monitor the river. For the latest breakup information go to
www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

JK MAY 18