Small Craft Advisory 31, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
143 AM AKDT Fri May 4 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A pattern change is currently underway with southerly flow
developing across northern Alaska. This will result in a series
of weather fronts moving north across the forecast area into the
weekend. The strongest front will move through Friday night. The
highest impact weather will be along the Alaska Range with
southerly chinook winds gusting to 70 mph Friday night, strong
northerly winds along the west coast, and low visibility due to
blowing in the eastern Arctic on Saturday. In addition, higher
elevations above 14k feet on Denali will be buffeted by winds
from 80 to 100 mph Friday night along with heavy snow.

A relatively strong low for early May moving into Bristol Bay
this morning will progress northward and weaken near Kotzebue
Sunday morning. Northerly winds 30 to 40 mph will develop on the
backside of the low over the Chukchi and northern Bering Sea
Friday and Saturday. This may bring elevated surf to north facing
beaches in areas free of shore fast ice. Easterly winds will also
increase along the North Slope.

This low will bring periods of mixed precipitation over the
western half of the state with the best chances for snow in the
Brooks Range and along the west coast where the airmass with be a
bit cooler. Several inches of snow are likely especially at higher
elevations of the Brooks Range Friday night and Saturday,
including along the Dalton Highway. This snow will spread to the
eastern Arctic coast on Saturday. Accumulating snow will persist
in the western Brooks Range into Sunday. Much of the eastern half
of the state will be shielded from any significant precipitation
by the Alaska Range until Sunday when the flow shifts a bit more
westerly. The strong southerly flow will bring warming
temperatures through the weekend to the eastern Interior.

Forecast models agree on another unseasonably strong low moving
into the southern Bering Sea on Monday producing strong winds and
mixed precipitation along the west coast. Meanwhile in the eastern
Interior, a strong ridge will build in from Canada bringing
temperatures well into the 60's by the middle of next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Strong northerly winds in
the Chukchi and northern Bering Sea will diminish on Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Fire weather forecasts started on Thursday for
portions of the eastern Interior including zones 222/223/224/226.
Southerly flow will bring warming and drying conditions through
the weekend for the central and eastern interior. Chinook winds
will develop through Alaska Range passes and foothills along the
north side of the range and continue through the weekend.
Widespread minimum relative humidities in the 30's percent range
are expected in the central and eastern Interior, with values
falling into the 20's along the north side of the Alaska Range.
Any remaining valley level snowpack will continue to melt away in
this areas and expose more fuels. A thermal trough setting up over
the Upper Yukon Flats this weekend will bring the slight
potential for isolated Thunderstorms. This area is still fully
snow covered so fire starts are not a concern.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Rising freezing levels and temperatures into the
50's in the eastern Interior are expected into the weekend. This
will help to ripen and melt the higher elevation snowpack and also
weaken in-place river ice. Rising water levels from snowmelt will
help to get river breakup started on more rivers in the eastern
Interior over the next few days. An even more pronounced warmup
with temperatures climbing into the 60's over the eastern Interior
will bring a rapid melting of the snowpack and better chances for
ice jams and high river levels next week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ223.

High Wind Warning for AKZ225-AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

EWP MAY 18