Small Craft Advisory 29, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
304 AM AKDT Thu May 3 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The 00z models suite initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis and verified well against the 06z surface analysis. The
00z model suite displays minimal model spread between model
families in the short range and reasonable spread in the mid range
as well as the extended range. Spread between model runs has also
improved over the last two model runs.

Aloft at 500 mb a trough over the Bering Sea continues to deepen
and dig to the south and east while an upper level ridge over the
Yukon continues to build northward and toward the west. Warming
and drying conditions are expected over the central and eastern
interior through early next week while cloudy, cool and showery
conditions are expected to continue over the western interior, the
west coast as well as the north slope. The pattern becomes very
meridional with strong southerly winds developing over the central
and eastern interior. As the strong winds aloft move over the
Alaska Range strong and gusty winds are expected to develop along
and near the northern foothills and through the passes of the
Alaska Range Friday afternoon and continue through Sunday.

Central and Eastern interior...Warming and drying conditions begin
today and will continue through the weekend for the central and
eastern interior. A trough setting up over the Upper Yukon Flats
this weekend will bring a slight potential for Thunderstorms east
of a line from Arctic Village to Ft Yukon To Eagle. Minimum
Relative Humidity values will fall into the 30s today for most of
the Central and Eastern Interior, and fall below 30 percent from
Fairbanks southeast starting Tuesday of next week. High
temperatures will rise into the 50s for the weekend and the lower
60s early next week. Strong winds aloft will move over the Alaksa
Range and will produce strong winds on the surface near the
northern foothills and through the passes of the Alaska Range.
Winds will increase Friday afternoon and continue to be strong in
these areas through the weekend. Wind Advisories have been issued
for these areas. Gusty easterly to southeasterly winds will also
develop over the central and eastern interior as a thermal trough
over the southern interior interacts with a strong front rotating
north over the Alaska Range Saturday. Will need to monitor for
advisory level wind gusts especially over interior highway
summits late Friday and Saturday.

Brooks Range...A strong front moving north out of the
interior rotating around a low in the lower YK Delta Saturday will
bring another round of snow especially along the south facing
slopes of the central Brooks Range. Expect 2 to 4 inches of snow
in these areas including Atigun Pass beginning Friday night and
continuing through Saturday.

Western Interior, West Coast...A stacked low pressure system will
continue to bring periods of moisture over the area with rain and
snow showers continuing through the weekend. As the upper level
ridge builds west over the central interior expect a drying and
warming trend.

North Slope...Strong high pressure north of Barrow combined with
low pressure over the lower YK Delta will produce persistent east
to northeast winds and will produce periods of low ceilings, fog
and light snow through the weekend especially along the eastern
coastal areas. Gusty winds combined with new snow will produce
areas of blowing snow east of Barrow Saturday. A strong front
moving north out of the interior combined with a trough that
develops over the North Slope plains will produce 1 to 2 inches
of snow Saturday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Strong north winds
developing in the Chukchi Sea, Bering Strait, and Northeastern
Bering Sea Friday night will bring potential for High Surf and
Freezing Spray to Little Diomede, and the north side of St
Lawrence Island. Winds will diminish Saturday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warming and drying conditions today through the
weekend for the central and eastern interior. Thermal trough
setting up over the Upper Yukon Flats this weekend will bring
slight potential for Thunderstorms east of a line from Arctic
Village to Ft Yukon To Eagle. Minimum Relative Humidity values
falling into the 30s today for most of the Central and Eastern
Interior, and below 30 percent from Fairbanks southeast starting
Tuesday of next week. High temperatures will rise into the 50s
for the weekend and the lower 60s early next week. Strong winds
aloft will move over the Alaksa Range and will produce strong
winds on the surface near the northern foothills and through the
passes of the Alaska Range. Winds will increase Friday afternoon
and continue to be strong in these areas through the weekend. Wind
Advisories have been issued for these areas. Gusty easterly to
southeasterly winds will also develop over the central and
eastern interior as a thermal trough over the southern interior
interacts with a strong front rotating north over the Alaska Range
Saturday however winds are expected to remain below advisory
criteria.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Temperatures will begin to climb today over the
central and eastern interior and will continue to climb through
the weekend and into early next week. Warm and dry conditions will
provide ideal conditions for snowpack ripening and melt off. We
continue to see ice movement in some of the mainstem rivers with
the Tanana starting to move near Nenana and bigger leads opening
in the Upper Tanana and Yukon Rivers. The ice is continues to
darken on the mainstem rivers and lakes, so caution should be used
if you need to be out on the ice.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ225-AKZ226.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.
&&

CCC MAY 18