Small Craft Advisory 25, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
449 AM AKDT Sun Apr 29 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Strong spring storm continues to be the weather focus through
Monday.

A 970 mb low centered near 60N and the Dateline will continue to
move northeast today and will swing a strong front north and east
through the west coast today and the western and central interior
tonight and Monday.

West Coast and western interior...the strong front associated with
the low in the central Bering Sea will produce gale force winds in
the waters surrounding St Lawrence and high end small craft winds
over Norton Sound. Strong wind headlines and Wind Advisories have
been issued for the west coast and western interior from the
Seward Peninsula south where wind gusts to 55 mph are expected
along the coast and to 45 mph inland. A mix of rain and snow is
expected in lower elevations with minor snow accumulations
expected over lower elevations while mostly snow is expected over
the higher elevations of the west coast and western interior. 4
to 8 inches of snow is expected with this system to the north of
Ambler in the Western Brooks range where a Winter Weather Advisory
has been issued.

Current track of the low brings the low over the eastern tip of
St Lawrence Island as a 980 mb low Monday morning which produces a
long southwest fetch and will produce high surf and elevated
water levels along the YK Delta coast, as well as most of Norton
Sound. High Surf Advisories have been issued for these areas, see
Coastal Hazard Potential section for more details.

Central and Eastern Interior...Strong gap winds will develop this
afternoon through the passes and along the northern foothills of
the Alaska Range as a lee side trough develops over the southern
interior and higher pressure continues over south central Alaska.
Expect sub advisory winds over the western and central Alaska
Range with southwest winds aloft not as ideal for mountain wave
development. The southwest winds aloft will produce a weak
mountain wave in the lee of the eastern Alaska Range where
Advisory level wind gusts are expected to develop this evening. A
Wind Advisory has been issued for this area. Low level wind progs
continue to indicate 45 to 50 knot winds at 850 mb and 35 knots of
wind from a southwest direction at 925 mb which will produce
advisory level wind gusts over southwest wind favored highway
summits to the south and west of Fort Yukon. A Wind Advisory has
been issued for this area.

From Fairbanks west moist southwest flow aloft will produce
scattered rain and snow showers today and a chance of rain and
snow tonight. From Fairbanks east and south the weak chinook will
limit precipitation to a slight chance.

Coastal Hazard Potential...The potential for for high surf and
minor coastal flooding for Scammon Bay and Cape Romanzof, the
lower Yukon Delta this evening and Norton Sound has prompted High
Surf Advisories beginning this evening and continuing through the
day Monday for the lower YK Delta and beginning tonight and
continuing through the day Monday for Norton Sound. Current surf
guidance continues to indicate water levels rising to 4 to 6 feet
above mean low low water levels as gusty southwest winds this
afternoon and evening transition to west and northwest winds
tonight. There remains considerable uncertainty on the track of
the low and small deviations in the track of the storm will
produce significant differences in where the highest surf
conditions will occur. Continue to monitor for additonal updates.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Near Red Flag conditions will continue today
south and east of Fairbanks near the eastern Alaska Range as gap
winds develop later this afternoon and continue into the evening.
Expect winds gusting to around 55 mph with minimum relative
humidity values in the 30s this afternoon and evening. Rain and
snow showers will increase today and tonight from Fairbanks West
as moisture moves northeast into the interior around a low moving
east out of the Bering Sea into Norton Sound. Expect limited
shower activity to the east and south of Fairbanks with weak down
slope winds capping the atmosphere.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ220-AKZ226.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ217-AKZ218.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC APR 18