Small Craft Advisory 209, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
244 PM AKST Mon Nov 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Active weather pattern continues for northern Alaska with snow,
blowing snow and freezing rain through much of the interior and
strong winds along the west coast, Bering Strait and St Lawrence
Island.

Aloft at 500 mb a strong upper level ridge remains steadfast over
the west coast of North America from California northward to the
Yukon while a strong long wave trough over the eastern Bering Sea
and western Alaska and the northwest Gulf of Alaska slowly pushes
east into the Ridge slowly eroding the northern portion of the
ridge with each shortwave moving north out of the northern
Pacific into Wednesday. The ridge then builds back west over the
Yukon and eastern Alaska later in the week. An upper level ridge
continues to dominate over Siberia and will build northeast over
the North Slope of Alaska into Wednesday.

A series of short wave troughs rotating through the long wave
trough are interacting with a subtropical feed of moisture
extending from near Hawaii to the Gulf of Alaska, and causing a
series of strong surface lows to form in the southern Gulf of
Alaska and rotate north over Western Alaska. Each low is cutting
into and eroding the long wave ridge, with the ridge breaking
down Tue and Wed and allowing the now weakened long wave trough to
move over mainland Alaska by Wed. The long wave trough moves east
Thu as a long wave ridge builds back over the Eastern Pacific and
Mainland AK late in the week. This translates to a warm and windy
pattern with periods of snow and freezing rain for the interior
through mid week with a slight cool down to near normal by the end
of the week. The West Coast will remain windy through Wednesday
as well as remaining warmer than normal through the rest of the
week. The north slope will remain warmer than normal for the rest
of the week.

On the surface, the first low in a series of lows is currently
located 150 nm south of Dutch Harbor and will weaken as it moves
southeast into the western Gulf of Alaska tonight. A Second low
currently around 978 mb low and located 100 nm south of Kodiak
Island will continue to deepen to 976 mb as it moves northwest
into Bristol Bay Tuesday as a 1036 mb high pressures builds over
the North Slope. A front rotating northwest around the second low
will bring another round of snow and a chance of freezing rain to
much of the interior tonight and Tuesday. The next low in the
series moves north into the northeastern Gulf of Alaska as a 994
mb low on Wednesday however a weak ridge is expected to build
aloft over south central and southwest Alaska as well as the
southern interior and will help diminish the snow over the
interior late Wednesday.

Ongoing High Wind Warning will be allowed to continue as winds
continue to to be strong and will once again push warning level
criteria tonight as the low in the Gulf of Alaska pushes northwest
and tightens the gradient between the low and the high pressure
center over Siberia, the Southern Chukchi Sea and the North Slope.

A brief lull in the snow and freezing rain this afternoon over the
interior before more snow and freezing rain moves into the area
this evening in the southeast interior and tonight for the central
and western interior. Ongoing Winter Weather Advisories will
continue to cover incoming weather with another 2 to 3 inches
expected around Fairbanks through tomorrow and heavier amounts
expected in the higher terrain north of Fairbanks through
tomorrow.

Models, the 12z model suite initialized better today as far as
pressure levels on synoptic scale features and their positions
than they did yesterday. Model spread in the short range is
minimal and is reasonable through mid week. Model spread
increases significantly by the end of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory for AKZ213.

High Wind Warning for AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ219-
AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-
PKZ225-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ225.
&&

CCC NOV 18

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