Small Craft Advisory 206, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
553 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The main forecast concerns involve the coastal hazards for the
West Coast and winter hazards for Western Alaska over the next 24
hours. Elsewhere across the forecast area, relatively quiet
weather will persist. Models solutions are in good agreement for
the first 24 hours, then diverge with the handling of the
conglomeration of lows in the Bering Sea.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a broad upper low complex currently resides
over the Bering Sea with a 509 dam centered 600 miles west of St
Matthew Island and a collection of several shortwaves over Western
Alaska. The 509 dam low west of St Matthew Island will dig south
to be between Nikolski and Atka by late Saturday morning, and then
move to be 430 miles south of Unalaska by Sunday morning. The
collection of shortwaves will shift north and east to be over the
Brooks Range and Eastern Interior Saturday morning, and then over
the North Slope by Saturday evening. A strong shortwave 550 miles
northwest of Wrangel Island will drop southeast to be over the
western Arctic Coast by late Sunday afternoon. An upper level
ridge will build north from the northeast Pacific Ocean over the
Gulf of Alaska and then over southern Alaska Saturday, then shift
east Saturday night. Strong southerly flow will develop over
central Alaska Saturday night with several shortwaves riding north
in the flow.

At the surface, similar to the flow aloft, a broad complex of lows
currently resides over the Bering Sea with a 989 mb low west of St
Lawrence Island, a 994 mb low center 460 miles west of St Lawrence
Island, and a third 1002 mb low 350 miles northeast of Attu
Island. The 989 mb low will move north towards the Gulf of Anadyr
and continue to weaken today. The 1002 mb low center will move
east and deepen into a 997 mb low west of St Michael Island by
this evening. The 998 mb low will rotate south to be over Adak by
Saturday morning. A fast north moving low will deepen into a 978
mb by Saturday afternoon over Sand Point. This low will continue
to move north into Bristol Bay later Saturday evening. Surface
high pressure over Siberian Russia will build east over the
Alaskan Arctic and Interior Alaska through Saturday morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...The main concern will involve
coastal hazards in the Norton Sound and eastern Bering Sea over
the next 24 hours. Gusty south to southwest winds along the Norton
Sound coast and Yukon Delta coast (where ongoing High Surf
Advisories are in effect) will cause high surf today along with a
modest rise in water levels. As winds dissipate later this evening
and into tonight, water levels will decrease and high surf will
abate. Precipitation will has moved inland overnight and has been
mostly snow, except for along the Yukon Delta coast from Scammon
Bay south. An intrusion of warm air over the immediate coast today
will allow rain to mix in with the snow. Could see up to an
additional 3 inches of snow, except for along the immediate coast.
Will see precipitation taper off south of the Seward Peninsula
tonight with snow developing north of Huslia and Deering late this
afternoon and evening where a couple of inches are expected.

Eastern and Central Interior...Will see increasing clouds today
ahead of the next disturbance moving east from the Western
Interior. Snow will spread east to be over the Central Interior
from Bettles to Lake Minchumina by this afternoon, then to Fort
Yukon to Fairbanks by this evening. Snow showers will continue
through Saturday morning and then dissipate as the disturbance
lifts north over the Brooks Range and into the Arctic by Saturday
evening. A powerful shortwave will sweep north from the
Gulf of Alaska Sunday, with widespread snowfall likely in and
north of the Alaska Range. Chinook conditions may inhibit
significant snow across the Tanana Valley, though the exact track
of the system will the extend of the downsloping effect.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Light and variable flow over the
eastern Arctic Slope will become light and onshore by Saturday
morning and will likely bring low ceilings in stratus and areas of
fog back to the Arctic Coast east of Utqiagvik. A weak front will
move north along the Chukchi coast Saturday, facilitating clouds
and snow showers west of Utqiagvik into Sunday. High pressure will
then move in from the northwest and gradually build along the
coast into next week. Cold arctic air will infiltrate the region,
returning temperatures to seasonable normals by the middle of next
week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...In addition to the
concerns noted above, strong northeast winds are expected to
begin Sunday across the southern Chukchi Sea into the eastern
Bering Sea. Impacts will be possible along the norther Seward
coast as well ans the northern shores of the Yukon Delta and St.
Lawrence Island. We will continue to monitor.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.
&&

LTH NOV 18

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1259 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

AKZ222-101200-
Middle Tanana Valley-
Including Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright, Eielson AFB, Ester,
North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox, Chatanika,
Chena Hot Springs, and Sourdough Camp
1259 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

Snow will be moving into the Fairbanks area by 2 PM causing
difficult driving conditions for the evening commute. Light
accumulations of around an inch are expected for Fairbanks through
tonight, with up to 2 inches possible in the hills north and east
of town. A few snow showers will linger into early Saturday
morning.

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