Small Craft Advisory 162, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
319 AM AKDT Fri Oct 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Unsettled weather continues for northern Alaska with strong winds
in the Alaska Range and mixed precipitation for the interior,
mostly rain for the western interior and west coast while light
snow continues for the north slope.

The 00z model suite initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis and verified well against the 06z surface analysis. Model
spread is minimal in the short range as well as into the early
part of next week.

Aloft at 500 mb a strong ridge continues to hold fast over eastern
Alaska, Yukon, and British Columbia while a deep longwave trough
remains over the eastern Bering Sea. A series of shortwaves will
rotate north along the back side of the Ridge and move over the
western and central portions of Alaska with the first wave moving
into the YK Delta and over the Alaska Range Today and the northern
interior tonight and a second wave moving north out of the Gulf
of Alaska Saturday night and Sunday. A third wave will move north
over Northern Alaska Monday night and Tuesday.

Central and Eastern Interior: A moist atmosphere combined with
scattered skies has produced fog at many valley locations this
morning. Snow showers continue to decrease in coverage and
intensity as the next wave moves north over the Alaska Range
today. Expect increasing clouds over the interior today as the
next wave moves into the interior from the south. Southern
portions of the Passes through the Alaska Range will likely see
minor snow accumulations today and tonight. Winds will increase
this morning along the northern foothills and through the passes
of the western, central and eastern Alaska Range where Wind
Advisories have been issued through Saturday morning. The drying
downslope winds will again shield the central and eastern portions
of the interior to the east of Manley Hot Springs and south of
Fairbanks while rain and higher elevation snow moves into the
Western Interior and West Coast. The second wave moves north into
the interior on Saturday night and Sunday morning and will lower
snow levels to around 1800 in the Fairbanks area. Most of the
precipitation is expected to fall as rain at valley level around
fairbanks while some light snow accumulations are likely in the
hills around Fairbanks Saturday night and Sunday morning. A third
wave is forecast to move into the interior Monday night and
Tuesday and will bring a mixed bag of precipitation over the
interior.

Western Interior, West Coast; A series of low pressure systems
will move north and then west through the eastern Bering Sea over
through next week with the fist wave moving into the lower YK
Delta this morning. Snow levels are around 3500 feet over the
lower YK Delta dropping to 2500 near Galena so no significant
snowfall is expected with this system in the lower elevations. The
second low pressure moves over the area Saturday night and Sunday
morning bringing another round of rain below 1500 feet and minor
snow accumulations above. A third and stronger system moves into
the lower YK Delta Monday night and moves up the coat to the
Seward Peninsula Tuesday Snow levels are expected to remain over
2500 for the third system and will produce rain for all but higher
elevations.

The North Slope will remain unsettled with periods of snow low
ceilings and fog through the weekend. Will need to monitor the
wave moving north out of the interior on Monday night and Tuesday
as ample moisture, and upslope flow will likely produce
significant snowfall especially the southeastern Brooks Range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215.
&&

CCC OCT 18