Small Craft Advisory 161, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
245 AM AKDT Thu Oct 11 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Unsettled weather pattern to continue over northern Alaska
through the weekend as a series of fronts move north over
northern Alaska.

Aloft at 500 mb a strong ridge holds fast along the Canadian
Border as several upper level lows rotate around a deep longwave
trough over the Bering Sea through the weekend. Strong southerly
flow will ebb and flow over the Alaska Range from the surface to
500 mb through the weekend as strong shortwaves move north over
the range.

Strong winds have diminished this morning over the Alaska Range
but are expected to pick up again late this afternoon and evening
over the central and eastern Alaska Range Passes and will continue
into Saturday morning. Winds are not expected to reach advisory
levels in the central Alaska Range and the Delta Junction area but
they will be close and will need to be monitored. A Wind Advisory
has been issued for the eastern Alaska Range where winds are
expected to reach criteria.

Central and eastern interior...The front responsible for the wind
today in the Alaska Range continues to move north through the
northern interior today with a mix of rain and snow north of
Fairbanks and snow north of Fort Yukon. Upper level winds will
briefly shift southwest over the central interior allowing for
some precipitation, mainly north and east of Fairbanks, however
the precipitation will dry out again from Manley east as drying
down slope winds increase this evening and continue into tonight
over the central and eastern interior. As the next front moves
north out of southwest Alaska Friday morning expect winds to
increase along the northern foothills and the passes of the
central and eastern Alaska Range late this afternoon and evening.
Strongest winds in these areas are expected mid day Friday.

Over the western interior and west coast expect showers to
continue as a 985 mb low moves north along the coast to be located
over Nunivak Island Friday morning. The low moves out into the
Bering Sea and then curves back toward Bristol Bay by Saturday
morning and will bring yet another round of rain to the lower YK
Delta, and wind through the Alaska Range.

Low ceilings, fog and snow showers are expected through he period
over the western north slope. The gusty east winds will diminish
over the eastern North Slope tonight.

The models continue to initialize well against the 00z surface
analysis and verify well against the 06z surface analysis. Model
spread remains minimal in the short range and is reasonable in the
mid range, however timing differences on the shortwaves rotating
north over the Alaska Range continue to play havoc with periods
of wind through the Alaska Range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

Hydrology...No issues, rivers continue to fall. The rivers north
of the Tanana Valley are starting to freeze up, while the lakes
across the area are starting to freeze over.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

CCC OCT 18