Small Craft Advisory 159, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
228 AM AKDT Tue Oct 9 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A return to more unsettled weather for most of northern Alaska as
a persistent high pressure ridge over central and eastern Alaska
weakens and frontal systems in the Bering Sea move north through
the Bering Strait and Western Alaska.

Aloft at 500 mb a ridge of high pressure extending from near
Kotzebue southeast to Northway will push east to be located along
the Canadian Border as a strong shortwave extending from an upper
level low over the central Bering Sea south and east to Bristol
Bay and Kodiak Island continue to move north over the Alaska Range
Wednesday morning. Strong winds will develop tonight through the
passes in the Alaska Range and a strong pressure difference
between Northway and Delta Junction will produce a Tanana Valley
Jet and will produce Advisory level wind gusts from near Delta
Junction west to near just south and east of Salcha as well as
passes through the eastern Alaska Range. A Wind Advisory has been
issued for passes in the eastern Alaska Range west of the Tok
Cutoff beginning this evening and for the Delta Junction area as
the Tanana Valley Jet spins up Wednesday Morning. Gusty winds are
also expected to develop over the central Alaska Range around
Healy however wind gusts are expected to remain below Advisory
Levels in these areas.

Gusty east to southeast winds are also expected to develop this
evening and continue through the day Wednesday over highway
summits over the interior as strong gradient develops between a
1024 mb high pressure center over the Yukon and a 983 mb moving
north into the lower YK Delta Wednesday.

Showers will move into the western interior and west coast south
of the Seward Peninsula Wednesday morning and will continue to
move north and northwest through the west coast and western
interior north of the Seward Peninsula Wednesday afternoon. The
central and eastern interior will initially receive limited
precipitation especially from Fairbanks south with drying chinook
winds blowing over the central and eastern Alaska Range, however
as upper level and surface winds switch to the southwest as the
low in the lower YK Delta continues to move north, showers will
develop over the central and eastern interior to the south of
Fairbanks Wednesday afternoon and evening. Scattered snow showers
will be possible in these areas Wednesday evening into Thursday
morning.

&&

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Unsettled conditions are
expected over most of the forecast area. A series of shortwaves
moving north over the west coast and western interior will bring
periods of rain and rain snow mix at higher elevations into the
weekend. Periods of gusty winds are expected along the northern
foothills and passes of the central and eastern Alaska Range as a
series of shortwaves move north over the Alaska Range through the
weekend. The central and eastern interior will have periods of
rain showers and snow showers as the shortwaves move north through
the interior, especially north of Fairbanks. The central and
eastern interior will also have periods of dryer weather as the
shortwaves move north over the alaska Range and produce drying
downslope chinook winds, especially from Fairbanks south.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

Hydrology...No current issues, rivers continue to slowly fall.
Rivers north of the Yukon River are starting to freeze up.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230.
&&

CCC OCT 18