Small Craft Advisory 113, NWS Fairbanks, AK

831 
FZAK51 PAFG 041312
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
512 AM AKDT Tue Sep 4 2018

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-050215-
512 AM AKDT Tue Sep 4 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1003 mb low 350 nm north of Wrangel Island will move east as a
weather front sweeps across the coast. A 1012 mb low will move
into the Chukchi Sea from Siberia early Wednesday.

$$

PKZ225-050215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
512 AM AKDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-050215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
512 AM AKDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-050215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
512 AM AKDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE winds 25 kt becoming SW. Seas building to 5 ft. Fog,
rain.
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog and fog. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-050215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
512 AM AKDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Snow and rain. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED...W winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow and rain. 
.THU...NW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and fog. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-050215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
512 AM AKDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE winds 25 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Freezing fog and 
fog. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain. 
.THU...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 30 kt.  

$$

Sep 18

605 
FZAK51 PAFG 041324
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
524 AM AKDT Tue Sep 4 2018

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-050215-
524 AM AKDT Tue Sep 4 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1003 mb low 350 nm north of Wrangel Island will move east as a
weather front sweeps across the Arctic coast. The front will pass
east through Utqiagvik this morning to Prudhoe Bay by 4 PM
Tuesday. A 1012 mb low will move into the Chukchi Sea from 
Siberia early Wednesday.

$$

PKZ225-050215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
524 AM AKDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-050215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
524 AM AKDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-050215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
524 AM AKDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 25 kt becoming SW. Seas building to 5 ft. Fog,
rain.
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog and fog. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-050215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
524 AM AKDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Snow and rain. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow and rain. 
.THU...NW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and fog. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-050215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
524 AM AKDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 25 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Freezing fog and 
fog. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain. 
.THU...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 30 kt.  

$$

Sep 18

706 
FZAK51 PAFG 042225
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
225 PM AKDT Tue Sep 4 2018

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-051515-
225 PM AKDT Tue Sep 4 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1006 mb low 350 NM NE of Wrangel Island will move E as a 
weather front continues to sweep across the Arctic coast this 
afternoon. A 1014 mb low will move into the Chukchi Sea from 
Siberia early Wednesday and move E across the North Slope 
Wednesday, with high pressure building in behind it.

$$

PKZ225-051515-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
225 PM AKDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft. Fog.
.WED...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.THU...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-051515-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
225 PM AKDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-051515-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
225 PM AKDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Fog.
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog and fog. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog and fog. 
.FRI...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-051515-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
225 PM AKDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog and fog. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain. 
.THU...NW winds 20 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Freezing fog and fog. 
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...NW winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-051515-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
225 PM AKDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt becoming W. Seas building to 5 ft.
Freezing fog. Snow.
.WED...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain. 
.THU...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Freezing fog and fog. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog and fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 30 kt. 
.SUN...NW winds 30 kt.  

$$

Sep 18

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
118 PM AKDT Mon Sep 3 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Synopsis...
A series of disturbances will continue to track southeastward
across the North Slope over the next several days. Mostly cloudy
skies with on and off showers will prevail for much of the central
and eastern Interior, with heavier rainfall expected across the
Brooks Range. To the southwest, a ridge in the Bering Sea should
keep weather fairly quiet across the coast south of the Bering
Strait and into the western Interior.

Aloft 500 mb...
A high amplitude ridge axis extending northward through the
central Aleutians and into the Bering Sea from a central Pacific
589 dam high will remain in place over the next few days as an
Omega Block develops. This blocking pattern will facilitate mild
weather for the Bering Coast and western Interior. A more
progressive pattern across the Arctic will feature a series of
lows which will track southeast from the polar Arctic and impact
the northern coast before continuing into the Interior.

Models..
The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12z surface
analysis and verified well against the 18z surface analysis. Model
spread is limited in the short range forecast. Model agreement on
the shortwave features is reasonable as far as timing and track
and remains solid into Thursday and Friday of this week but does
increase rather significantly over next weekend especially on the
details on timing and track of the various shortwaves moving
through the long wave pattern. The models do agree on the location
and the development of an Omega Blocked pattern with axis over
the eastern Bering Sea. The Omega Block is expected to continue to
build slowly north and east through the end of this week.

North Slope and Brooks Range... A 1006 mb low approx 100 NM north
of Demarcation Point will move southeast, moving southeast of the
Mackenzie Delta by late this evening. A cold front extending
southwest of the low over the Brooks Range along with high
pressure moving east to be located 200 NM north of Utqiagvik
tonight will produce an extended period of west to northwest
upslope flow for the eastern Brooks Range. This enhanced upslope
flow is expected to produce significant rain over the eastern
Brooks Range with the potential for heavy snow above 5000 ft. The
heaviest snow is expected to occur to the east of the Dalton
Highway and not significantly impact Atigun Pass. Rain totals of
around 0.50 to 1.00 inches are expected with locally higher
amounts up to 1.50 inches though Wednesday. Cloudy, showery
conditions will persist north of the mountains as high pressure
and onshore flow following the front continue into Tuesday. A warm
front will pass over the area Tuesday evening rising producing
slightly warmer conditions and rising the snow level in the Brooks
Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Strong sfc high pressure in the south central Bering will support
onshore flow with marine layer stratus and isolated showers for
the immediate coastline. For much of the upcoming week, the
Western Interior will experience relative warmth along with a few
breaks in the clouds as the Sea Stratus breaks up as it moves
inland.

Central and Eastern Interior...
As shortwaves continue to sweep southeast through the interior,
expect on and off again showers along with mostly cloudy skies
over the next few days. Rainfall totals will be unimpressive as
the prevailing west to northwesterly flow aloft over the Brooks
Range and White Mountains will restrict moisture availability down
range and will limit precipitation in the Yukon Flats and the
Fortymile Country but will locally enhance precipitation on
favored west wind upslope locations just east and north of
Fairbanks. A slow upward trend in temperatures is likely late in
the week as high pressure builds from the southwest.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4... Northwesterly flow along
the Arctic coast on the north side of the developing Omega Block
over the Bering Sea will allow a series of lows which will
periodically cause high surf, particularly east of Utqiagvik to
the AlCan Border through Tuesday morning. The next system will
affect the Chukchi coast late Tuesday afternoon and will move east
affecting the Beaufort Sea Coast Wednesday. Computer models
continue to indicate water levels between one half foot to one
foot above normal tide levels. Sustains west to northwest winds
will likely produce moderately high surf along the coast to the
east of Utqiagvik Wednesday and Thursday. Continue to monitor.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rivers will continue to remain high across the Eastern Interior
and Eastern North Slope for the next several days. No flooding
expected at this time, but high water in the Upper Chena and the
Salcha River will need to be watched given the recent widespread
rainfall across the region.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

CCC SEP 18