Small Craft Advisory 103, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
110 AM AKDT Sat Aug 25 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A series of storms to impact the west coast and interior of
Alaska through next week.

Aloft at 500 mb a longwave trough extends southwest from the high
Canadian Arctic to the central Aleutians and is anchored by a 540
DM low over eastern Siberia that continues to rotate a series of
shortwaves north and east over the Alaska west coast and interior.
Computer models are in good agreement on keeping these features
in place through next week with the only differences exhibiting
themselves on the track and strength of the shortwaves moving
through the pattern.

The first in a series of lows is currently located over the
central Bering Sea will continue to move north and east today and
will be located over Nunivak Island Sunday morning and Norton
sound Sunday evening. This upper level low with a 992 mb surface
low and attending fronts will continue to move north and east into
the central Brooks Range by Monday morning. As the low tracks
north and east into the Brooks Range expect another round of heavy
rain to move over the west coast Sunday morning and over the
western interior and western Brooks Range through the day Sunday.
The central interior will also receive heavy rain Sunday to the
west of Fairbanks with much lighter amounts to the east where down
slope winds off of the Alaska Range will limit rainfall totals
until late Sunday when the downslope winds off of the Alaska Range
weaken and moist westerly flow sweeps in from the west. Rainfall
totals of one half to one inch are expected to the west of
Fairbanks with one quarter to one half inch expected though
Monday morning to the east of Fairbanks. Computer models continue
to indicate elevated water levels from Nome to Hopper Bay of 2 to
4 feet above normal tide levels Monday and Tuesday as 20 to 30
knot long fetch winds on the back side of the low moving into the
Brooks Range develop. See Coastal Hazard Potential section for
additional details.

The second in a series of low pressure systems that will impact
northern Alaska will move into the southern Bering Sea late next
week. Computer models continue to struggle with the track and
strength of the merged remnants of former tropical storm Cimaron
and former tropical storm Soulik as the merged extratropical low
is pulled north and east into the longwave trough mentioned before
that extends from the high Canadian Arctic southwest into the
central Aleutians. The remnants of the two former tropical storms
is expected to track into the central Bering Sea next week and
may impact northern Alaska with another round of heavy rain and
elevated water levels along the west coast. Continue to monitor.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4... A 994 mb low currently
located 250 nm southwest of St Paul Island will continue to track
northeastward and will be located 150 nm west of Nunivak Island
Sunday morning as a 993 mb low and located near Nome as a 1000 mb
low Sunday evening. As the low continues to move north and east
into the Brooks Range a broad wind field of sustained 20-30kt west
to northwest winds are expected to develop over Norton Sound and
the lower YK Delta coast. Computer models continue to indicate
water levels 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast
from near Nome through Norton Sound to Hopper Bay Monday and
Tuesday of next week. Additionally, late next week a similar
system containing the post tropical remnants of Cimaron and Soulik
will follow a similar track and my produce elevated water levels
in the same areas. We will continue to monitor the development of
both scenarios. For the latest forecasts go to
www.weather.gov/fairbanks.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather threat will remain low into next week with periods of
wetting rain expected over much of northern Alaska south of the
Brooks Range. No major change to the current pattern is expected,
as moisture continues to stream northeast across the state. The
driest areas will continue to be the upper Tanana Valley and the
southern Brooks Range, though relative humidity will remain well
above 40 percent.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Periods of rainfall will continue into next week and will keep
water levels high for many of the already swollen rivers and
streams across the state. Several rivers are forecast to continue
to rise to near bankfull, particularly the Tanana and lower Yukon,
though there is no anticipated flood threat at this time, however
many rivers are forecast to approach action stage this weekend and
early next week. Extra vigilance is advised for activities in or
near rivers and streams across the state. For the latest forecasts
go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ226.
&&

CCC AUG 18

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