Gale Warning 82, NWS Fairbanks, AK

379 
FZAK51 PAFG 152240
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
240 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-161415-
240 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1024 mb area of high pressure centered 250 nm north of the
Alaska Arctic Coast will shift east to be centered over the
Beaufort Sea and Banks Island by Tuesday afternoon. A low pressure
trough will persist over Interior Alaska.

$$

PKZ225-161415-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
240 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...N winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-161415-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
240 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-161415-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
240 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.WED...E winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Freezing
spray. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-161415-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
240 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft. Freezing
fog. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing fog. Snow.
Freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Freezing
spray. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow. Freezing spray. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-161415-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
240 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft. Freezing 
fog. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...E winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Freezing
spray. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

Oct 18

631 
FZAK51 PAFG 161209
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
409 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-170215-
409 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1024 mb area of high pressure extends east to west 200 nm north
of the Alaska Arctic coast. High pressure will persist over the
area through Wednesday. A low pressure trough will persist over 
Interior Alaska.

$$

PKZ225-170215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
409 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing rain. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-170215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
409 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 25 kt increasing to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing 
spray.
.TONIGHT...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow and rain. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-170215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
409 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing fog. 
.WED...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Freezing
spray. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-170215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
409 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing fog. Snow.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-170215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
409 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing 
spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow. Heavy freezing 
spray. 
.WED...E winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

Oct 18

243 
FZAK51 PAFG 162302
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
302 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-171430-
302 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1022 mb area of high pressure 350 nm north of Demarcation Point
will drift north and west through Wednesday morning and then move
southeast to be located 100 nm north of the McKenzie Delta
Thursday.

$$

PKZ225-171430-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
302 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...N winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-171430-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
302 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow. Freezing spray. 
.WED...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-171430-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
302 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing fog and blowing
snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. Freezing spray. 
.WED...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow. Freezing spray. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-171430-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
302 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-171430-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
302 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

CCC Oct 18

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
346 PM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Overall the models are in good agreement in the short term with
the main synoptic scale features and paint an active picture for
much of the Interior over the next few days.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a 516 dam low south of Adak will move to the
east tonight before turning to the north on Monday reaching
Bristol Bay Monday afternoon. As the low moves to the east it will
help to pump up a ridge along the Canadian Border that will bring
southerly flow across much of the forecast area. The low over
Bristol Bay will persist for much of the upcoming week, although
it will weaken after Tuesday night. The ridge over the Canadian
Border will push to the east Tuesday night turning the flow aloft
more southwesterly.

At the surface, a 970 mb low south of Unalaska will push east
tonight before turning to the north on Monday. The low will reach
Bristol Bay by Monday afternoon where it will persist through
Wednesday night, gradually weakening in place. A ridge of high
pressure will build east over eastern Russia Monday. High
pressure will persist over the Arctic for much of the week.

Central and Eastern Interior: Relatively quiet for most areas
tonight, although fog is expected in many valley locations around
the Interior. The next system will begin to approach from the
south on Monday. During the day a trough will strengthen just
north of the Alaska Range. This will cause winds to increase
across the Interior. Southerly gap winds will reach advisory
criteria in the eastern Alaska Range Monday night with advisory
level winds persisting into Tuesday. I opted to go ahead and issue
Wind Advisories for zones 223 and 226 for the expected winds.
Precipitation associated with this system will spread north Monday
evening. Strong southerly flow over the Alaska Range will keep
the snow level above 6000 feet south of the Yukon River early
Tuesday before decreasing to around 4000 feet late Tuesday.
Because of this, precipitation associated with this system is
expected to be rather messy, with a mixed bag of rain, freezing
rain and snow. Initially, on Monday night, the southerly winds
will help to limit the potential for precipitation from just north
of the Alaska Range to just north of Fairbanks. From Livengood
north to the Yukon River freezing rain is expected at times Monday
night and Tuesday. Because of the potential for freezing rain I
am issuing a Winter Storm Watch for zone 220 for Monday night into
Tuesday. North of the Yukon river, we expect to 2 to 7 inches of
snow Tuesday into Wednesday with high accumulations the closer you
get to the Brooks Range. Zones 218 and 219 will likely need a
winter weather product with this system; however, we will hold off
at this point with putting any out. On Tuesday, the flow aloft
turns a little bit more southwesterly allowing for higher PoPs in
the Fairbanks area. For Fairbanks we are expecting rain as the
precipitation type with this system. West of Fairbanks, there is
some potential for some light freezing rain early in the day on
Tuesday from Tanana south to Minchumina; however the precipitation
will change over to rain later in the day. Precipitation with
this system is expected to taper off south of the Yukon River
Tuesday evening and will taper off north of the Yukon River early
Wednesday morning. We liked the NAM solution as far as timing
goes. The GFS wants to hold onto the precip over the Fairbanks
area well into Wednesday. We did hint at this, keeping a slight
chance of PoPs for Fairbanks for Wednesday morning. If the GFS
solution does pan out, light freezing rain is possible for
Fairbanks early Wednesday; however, right now our current thinking
is that the chances of this happening is quite low. The GFS is
currently hinting at another system moving to the north Thursday
night into Friday thanks to a strong low in the Gulf of Alaska.

North Slope and Brooks Range: Some light snowfall is expected in
the eastern Brooks Range and along the eastern Arctic Coast this
evening. Any snowfall will taper off by early Monday morning.
Snowfall associated with the next system will begin in the Brooks
Range on Tuesday. 4 to 7 inches of snow is expected on the south
side of the Brooks Range before snow tapers off on Wednesday. The
north slopes of the Brooks Range will see lesser amounts due of
downsloping. Snowfall with this system will begin late Tuesday
along the Arctic Coast with the precipitation lasting into
Wednesday evening. Snow amounts along the coast with this system
look to be around 2 to 5 inches. Easterly winds along the coast
will pick up Tuesday with gusts up to 40 mph possible east of
Deadhorse (although the strongest winds look to remain offshore).

West Coast and Western Interior: The next front looks to bring
spread rainfall north along the coast late Monday into Tuesday.
With the low persisting in the Bristol Bay we expect that
conditions will remain unsettled through the middle of the week.
The combination the low moving into Bristol Bay combined with
high pressure building over eastern Russia will cause will cause
strong northeasterly winds to develop over the Bering Sea and
along the west coast. The strongest winds over a land area will be
over St. Lawerence Island where gusts around 50 mph are possible
early Tuesday. Right now, the wind direction doesn't look
favorable for coastal flooding issues on St. Lawrence Island for
Tuesday (the surge guidance is actually showing negative values).
The winds become more northwesterly for St. Lawrence Island on
Wednesday; however, at that point they are also starting to die
down. We will have to watch this area closely. At any rate, the
waters just offshore from St. Lawrence Island look to be quite
rough early this week. Elsewhere, we expect a lot of patchy fog
over the western Interior tonight into early Monday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None; however, see West
Coast section above for issues in the shorter term.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ226.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ220.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ218.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

OCT 18