Gale Warning 71, NWS Fairbanks, AK

532 
FZAK52 PAFG 282259
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
259 PM AKDT Fri Sep 28 2018

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-291415-
259 PM AKDT Fri Sep 28 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 988 mb 300 NM S of the Gulf of Anadyr will move W to be over 59N
170E in the western Bering Sea by Sat afternoon. A 988 mb low 200
NM E of Shemya will weaken tonight as it moves E. 

$$

PKZ200-291415-
Norton Sound-
259 PM AKDT Fri Sep 28 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-291415-
Dall Point to Wales-
259 PM AKDT Fri Sep 28 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Fog.
.SAT...E winds 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-291415-
Kotzebue Sound-
259 PM AKDT Fri Sep 28 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-291415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
259 PM AKDT Fri Sep 28 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

Sep 18

686 
FZAK52 PAFG 291332
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
532 AM AKDT Sat Sep 29 2018

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-300200-
532 AM AKDT Sat Sep 29 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
High pressure will persist over mainland Alaska and the Arctic.  
A broad area of low pressure will persist over the Bering Sea and
Siberia. A 987 mb low in the Central Bering Sea will move into
Siberia and merge with a 984 mb low Sun. A 948 mb low will move
into the Western Bering Sea Mon evening. 

$$

PKZ200-300200-
Norton Sound-
532 AM AKDT Sat Sep 29 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-300200-
Dall Point to Wales-
532 AM AKDT Sat Sep 29 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...E winds 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-300200-
Kotzebue Sound-
532 AM AKDT Sat Sep 29 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...E winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-300200-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
532 AM AKDT Sat Sep 29 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

SDB Sep 18

981 
FZAK52 PAFG 292106
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
106 PM AKDT Sat Sep 29 2018

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-301500-
106 PM AKDT Sat Sep 29 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
High pressure will persist over mainland Alaska and the Arctic.  
A broad area of low pressure will persist over the Bering Sea and
Siberia. A 987 mb low in the Central Bering Sea will move into
Siberia and merge with a 984 mb low Sun. A 948 mb low will move
into the Western Bering Sea Mon morning.

$$

PKZ200-301500-
Norton Sound-
106 PM AKDT Sat Sep 29 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-301500-
Dall Point to Wales-
106 PM AKDT Sat Sep 29 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...E winds 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-301500-
Kotzebue Sound-
106 PM AKDT Sat Sep 29 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-301500-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
106 PM AKDT Sat Sep 29 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.  

$$

Sep 18

180 
FZAK52 PAFG 301209
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
409 AM AKDT Sun Sep 30 2018

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-010200-
409 AM AKDT Sun Sep 30 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
High pressure will persist over mainland Alaska and the Arctic. A
broad area of low pressure will persist over the Bering Sea and 
Siberia. A 990 mb low in the Central Bering Sea will move into 
Siberia and merge with a 986 mb low today. a 979 mb low 300 nm S 
of Atka will move to Nunivak Island Tue morning and dissipate. The
remnants of Typhoon Trami will move to the Bering Sea Tue morning
with a 950 mb center 400 nm NW of Shemya.

$$

PKZ200-010200-
Norton Sound-
409 AM AKDT Sun Sep 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...E winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-010200-
Dall Point to Wales-
409 AM AKDT Sun Sep 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...E winds 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-010200-
Kotzebue Sound-
409 AM AKDT Sun Sep 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-010200-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
409 AM AKDT Sun Sep 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.  

$$

SDB Sep 18

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
431 AM AKDT Fri Sep 28 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
A long wave ridge over the Gulf of AK will build strongly over
northern AK today through Sat, then remain very strong over
Northern AK into early next week, and possibly longer. This ridge
will build to have h500 heights near 580 DM, which is near record
high heights, and indicates that this will be and extremely warm
airmass. This will mean dry and clear conditions with near record
warmth for most of northern AK.

Exception will be periods of rain along the West Coast today and
tonight, and possibly over the weekend, and cool cloudy
conditions along the Arctic Coast. Expect very warm, near record
high, daytime temperatures over most of Northern AK through Mon.
Night time lows will remain near normal over the Interior due to
the clear skies and strong nocturnal radiation.

A weak short wave trough over the Yukon Flats will weaken this
afternoon as the ridge builds and move east of the Alcan Border tonight.
Stratus and flurries associate with this feature over the Yukon
Flats should dissipate this afternoon as the ridge builds and the
short wave weakens.

Surface...
A strong ridge of high pressure over the North SLope and NE
Interior of AK will move slowly east to a position over the
Beaufort Sea and Yukon of Canada Sat, then persist into early
next week, and possibly longer. This will cause stratus and fog
along the Arctic Coast to persist through early next week.

Expect steam fog overnight through weekend off Interior water
bodies, with fog developing in low wind areas at night.

A 986 mb low just west of St Paul will move to 200 nm west of St
Matthew Island as a 981 mb low by 4pm Fri, then continue moving
west into the western Bering as a 980 mb low by 4pm Sat. A warm
front stretching east from this low to Nunivak Is King Salmon will
move to the Bering Strait to McGrath by 4pm Fri, and to Point Lay
to McGrath by 4am Sat. Rain along the front over zone 214 will
spread to zone 213 and 211 this afternoon with a chance of rain
with the front along the remainder of the coast, and isolated
showers in the Western Interior. East winds 25-35 kt will spread
north with the front today south of the Bering Strait.

A trailing cold front will move over the Eastern Bering Sat and
Sat night and could bring more rain zones 214 and 213.

East drainage winds 10-20kt will develop across the Interior
today as the low moves over the Bering increasing the gradient.
These winds will continue into Sat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well above the surface and similar solutions
through Mon. Models differ slightly on speed of precip moving
north today. Precip is already 100 nm N of where GFS and NAM
indicate at 12Z Fri, so we will move precip north faster today and
tonight, more like the ECMF precip.

At the surface, all models verify 5 mb too weak at 06Z Fri on low
in the southeast Bering Sea. Expect the low to remain deeper than
models indicate through tonight as it moves northwest across
Bering Sea. Will boost winds in northern Bering sea and West Coast
3 kt above what models indicate today and tonight as a result of
this deeper low and stronger gradient. Otherwise models similar
solutions through Sun. Start to see significant differences in a
strength of low moving in the southern Bering Sea next week, but
all solutions keep moderate east winds over West Coast and Arctic
Coast next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
East winds will cause low water levels in Norton Sound coast
today and tonight. Otherwise expect elevated surf SE facing shores
of zone 213 tonight and Sat.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River will remain high but continue to fall over Interior through
weekend.

Chena River is now cresting in Fairbanks, but ground water will
remain high in Fairbanks area through next week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

JB SEP 18