Gale Warning 63, NWS Fairbanks, AK

306 
FZAK51 PAFG 172304
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
304 PM AKDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-181615-
304 PM AKDT Tue Jul 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A ridge of high pressure over Yukon Delta will persist through
Thu. A 990 mb low currently 50 nm southeast of Wrangel Island 
will continue to deepen to 988 mb as it moves rapidly north and 
east tonight to be located 250 nm northwest of Point Barrow 
Wednesday morning and 300 nm northeast of Point Barrow Wednesday 
evening.

$$

PKZ225-181615-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
304 PM AKDT Tue Jul 17 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-181615-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
304 PM AKDT Tue Jul 17 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...W winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-181615-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
304 PM AKDT Tue Jul 17 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt becoming S 30 kt. Fog, rain.
.WED...SW winds 30 kt. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Fog.
.THU...W winds 20 kt. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...SW winds 25 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-181615-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
304 PM AKDT Tue Jul 17 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Fog.
.WED...SW winds 30 kt. Fog, rain.
.WED NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Fog.
.THU...W winds 20 kt. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-181615-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
304 PM AKDT Tue Jul 17 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 10 kt increasing to 20 kt. 
.WED...S winds 25 kt. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Fog, rain.
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 10 kt.  

$$

CCC Jul 18

509 
FZAK51 PAFG 181243
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
443 AM AKDT Wed Jul 18 2018

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-190230-
443 AM AKDT Wed Jul 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 983 mb low 400 NM northwest of Barrow will move to 500 NM
north of Barrow as a 979 mb low by 4pm Wed, to 600 NM north of 
Demarcation Point as a 979 mb low by 4pm Thu, then weaken slowly 
in place through Fri.

$$

PKZ225-190230-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
443 AM AKDT Wed Jul 18 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 35 kt decreasing to W 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog, 
rain.
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-190230-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
443 AM AKDT Wed Jul 18 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 35 kt decreasing to W 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog,
rain.
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.THU...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-190230-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
443 AM AKDT Wed Jul 18 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 30 kt. Fog, rain.
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Fog.
.THU...W winds 25 kt. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...SW winds 25 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-190230-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
443 AM AKDT Wed Jul 18 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt increasing to SW 25 kt. Fog, rain.
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Fog, rain.
.THU...W winds 20 kt. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SW winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-190230-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
443 AM AKDT Wed Jul 18 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE winds 15 kt increasing to SW 25 kt. Fog.
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Fog, rain.
.THU...W winds 20 kt. Fog, rain.
.THU NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Fog.
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 10 kt.  

$$

Jul 18

644 
FZAK51 PAFG 182212
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
212 PM AKDT Wed Jul 18 2018

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-191415-
212 PM AKDT Wed Jul 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 988 mb low currently 300 nm north of Point Barrow will push 
north to near 80N and strengthen to 982 mb by Thursday morning and
will drag a strong front west over the North Slope and Brooks 
Range tonight. A high pressure ride will build north over the 
north slope late Thursday and will continue into Saturday.

$$

PKZ225-191415-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
212 PM AKDT Wed Jul 18 2018

.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-191415-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
212 PM AKDT Wed Jul 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.THU...W winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-191415-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
212 PM AKDT Wed Jul 18 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Fog.
.THU...W winds 25 kt. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...SW winds 25 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-191415-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
212 PM AKDT Wed Jul 18 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Fog.
.THU...W winds 25 kt. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 10 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-191415-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
212 PM AKDT Wed Jul 18 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Rain showers. 
.THU...W winds 25 kt. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 10 kt. 
.MON...W winds 10 kt.  

$$

CCC Jul 18

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
430 AM AKDT Tue Jul 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
A progressive westerly flow pattern will persist through Fri with
a ridge building over mainland Alaska on the weekend. Westerly
flow will keep the Northern Interior, North Slope, and Northwest
Alaska wet through late this week, with a warming and drying trend
over the weekend.

A strong short wave trough from Deadhorse to Denali will move to
Demarcation Point to Delta Junction by 4pm Tue, and east of the
Alcan Border tonight. Widespread showers east of this trough will
diminish to isolated showers along and west of the trough.

A second strong short wave over the New Siberian Islands will move
to the western Chukchi Sea by 4am Wed, over the eastern Chukchi
Sea by 4pm Wed, and over the Beaufort Sea and North Slope by 4am
Thu. This will bring rain and gale force winds to NW Alaska and
the North Slope. More in this in the surface section below.

Surface...
A cold front from Old Crow to Northway will move east of the Alcan
Border by noon Tue. Will see west winds and rain along the front
that will taper off west of the front.

A ridge of high pressure over the West Coast of Alaska and Western
North Slope will build east over the Interior and eastern North
Slope by 4pm Tue and then move over the Interior and Beaufort Sea
tonight. Will see showers and widns diminishing under this ridge.

A 992 mb low 500NM southwest of Wrangel Island will move near
Wrangel Island as a 990 mb low by 4PM Tue, to 300 NM northwest of
Barrow as a 988 mb low by 4am Wed, to 450 NM north of Nuiqsut as
a 984 mb low by 4pm Wed, and to 500 NM north of Deadhorse as a 980
mb low by 4am Thu, and to 600 NM north of Demarcation Point by 4pm
Thu. A warm front stretching southeast of the low will move over
NW Alaska by 4pm Tue, to Umiat north by 4am Wed, and from Old Crow
north by 4pm Wed. Rain and fog will spread east along the warm
front. Also expect south-southwest winds 20-30 kt along the warm
front.

A cold front trailing the low will move to the central Chukchi
Sea by 4am Wed, to Deadhorse to Point Hope by 4pm Wed, to
Demarcation Point to Point Hope by 4am Thu, and to lie along the
Brooks Range by 4pm Thu. Expect southwest winds 25-35kt along the
cold front turning west 20 kt west of the front. Rain and fog east
of the cold front to the warm front will taper off west of the
cold front. Expect 0.25 to 0.75 inch of rain over the North Slope
and NW Alaska, heaviest in upslope areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Model initialization has significant uncertainty over western
Alaska and Northeast Russia due to lack of any RAOBs in those
areas. Models start to see differences in speed of incoming short
wave energy over the Arctic Coast Tue PM, with the ECMF bringing
short wave energy in faster than the GFS and NAM, and the ECMF
also moving the surface low on a track further north than the GFS
and NAM Tue night and Wed. At this time favor the faster ECMF
solution due to the strong dynamics involved causing the low to
move northeast at a high speed. The ECMF is not as strong with the
winds over NW Alaska Tue night and Wed as a result of the low
being further north. As a nod to the uncertainty, we will bump
winds up slightly from what the EMCF displays to account for the
uncertainty and potential hazard of the winds.

Coastal Hazard Potential...
High surf expected between Point Lay and Wainwright Tue night
through Wed, and from Kivalina and Point Hope tonight and Wed.
Due to short fetch length and duration, and the peak winds
occuring in the warm sector, expect surge heights of 2-3 feet.
This should cause high surf but no flooding.
The area north of Wainwright is mainly ice covered which will
inhibit and high surf from occuring.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warmer and drier Wed and Thu across the Interior, with
temperatures warming further through the weekend. RH remaining
above 30% through Fri.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No issues.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ207.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Gale Warning for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235.
&&

JB JUL 18