Gale Warning 55, NWS Fairbanks, AK

191 
FZAK51 PAFG 071217
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
417 AM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-080200-
417 AM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
High pressure persists over the Arctic with a 1024 mb center 400 
nm N of Wainwright with high pressure pushing S over the Arctic 
Plains and Central Brooks Range. Broad area of low pressure 
remains over mainland Alaska. The ridging over the Arctic will 
be squeezed out as a 992 mb low moves over the North Pole into 
the high Arctic. By Sat the high pressure over the Arctic will be 
pushed S over the Plains as it continues to weaken with the low 
in the high Arctic moving to 600 nm N of Demarcation Point. A 
weather front will sweep SE across the Arctic Fri night to the 
Central Arctic Coast Sat afternoon, and the Eastern Arctic Coast 
Sat night.

$$

PKZ225-080200-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
417 AM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-080200-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
417 AM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-080200-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
417 AM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 25 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-080200-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
417 AM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.TODAY...NE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 25 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-080200-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
417 AM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.TODAY...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 25 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

SDB Jun 18

504 
FZAK51 PAFG 072141
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
141 PM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-081530-
141 PM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
High pressure persists over the Arctic with a 1024 mb center 400 
nm N of Wainwright with high pressure pushing S over the Arctic 
Plains and Central Brooks Range. Broad area of low pressure 
remains over mainland Alaska. The ridging over the Arctic will 
be squeezed out as a 992 mb low moves over the North Pole into 
the high Arctic. A weather front will sweep SE across the Arctic 
Fri night to the Central Arctic Coast Sat afternoon, and the 
Eastern Arctic Coast Sat night.

$$

PKZ225-081530-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
141 PM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-081530-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
141 PM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-081530-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
141 PM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...NW winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-081530-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
141 PM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Snow and freezing rain. 
.SUN...W winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Freezing rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-081530-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
141 PM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 25 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Snow and freezing rain. 
.SUN...W winds 30 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

Jun 18

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
408 AM AKDT Wed Jun 6 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Synopsis...Not much change for the short term, thunderstorm
coverage will again be range to range, and just inland to the
AlCan Border. Area of highest activity will extend from the
Upper Tanana Valley south of Fairbanks along the Western Alaska
Range, and most of the Western Interior areas. Pressure gradient
has tighten up a bit east of Arctic Village and northeast of Fort
Yukon today with winds around 15 mph and near Red Flag conditions
in the afternoon. Relative Humidity values slightly lower today,
but starting to rise Thursday. Pressure gradient has also
tightened over the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait with Small Craft
Advisories issued. In the western interior/inland areas expect
thunderstorms and showers to develop again today. On the Arctic
Coast river breakup, and the stratus and fog, continue to be the
biggest issues, and see no change in that through at least Friday.
There is a significant winter like storm that will be moving to
the Arctic Coast and Brooks Range Saturday night.

Models...06/00Z solutions are in good agreement through 72 hours
before they start diverging, but they still show similar
tendencies through 132 hours before they jump all over in the
Arctic. 06/00Z surface solutions initialized well against the
06/06Z analysis with similar pressures and locations of the major
features, including the Thermal Trough, and continue in good
agreement through around 60 hours before diverging. Lifted
Indicies range to around -4, and CAPE values to 400 J/kg.
Precipitable Water values of 0.30 to 0.85 inch with the highest
values in the Middle Yukon River Valley. Going to use an equal
blend of solutions and the current database for most elements to
maintain continuity.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Broad ridging continues over most of the
state with a 554 dam center 200 nm north of Wainwright and a ridge
axis extending southeast over Eagle into the Yukon Territory. A
band of lower heights lies to the south of the state extending
from a 551 dam low over northern Kamchatka, to a 544 dam low 150
nm north of Shemya to a 527 dam low 600 nm south of Seward, then
northeast over the Panhandle. A 554 dam high has moved over the
northern Bering Sea Coast with a 553 dam center over St Matthew
Island. A 547 dam low will develop over Norton Sound this morning,
then swing west over St Lawrence Island By Thursday morning with
a trough extending southeast to the low in the Northeast Pacific.
Short waves will continue to move west over the Alaska Range, and
may extend north into the Southern Interior, but timing the waves
remains very difficult. By Thursday morning the ridging weakens as
troughing develops over the AlCan Border with a 544 dam low near
Eagle and trough extending north to a 531 dam low high in the
Canadian Archipelago. By Friday morning a large col will develop
over the state with weak troughing extending from weak troughing
over the Beaufort Sea over the AlCan Border to a 532 dam low in
the Northeast Pacific, and weak ridging extending the Siberian
Arctic near the Dateline over the West Coast to ridging over the
North Pacific. At 850 hpa...Temperatures in the forecast area are
all above 0C today with the +10C isotherm pushing west over the
Middle Yukon And Upper Kuskokwim River Valleys. By Thursday the 0C
isotherm will be pushed south over the Arctic Plains and most of
the Central and Eastern Arctic Coast, while the +10C isotherm
will shift a bit north as it pushes northwest into the Interior
Seward Peninsula. Much colder temperatures will dive south over
the Arctic Coast, Brooks Range, and into the Central and Eastern
Interior this weekend.

Surface...High pressure remains over the Arctic with a 1030 mb
center near 80N and the Dateline and ridging extending southeast
over the Arctic Plains and Central Brooks Range. Broad area of
low pressure around the Thermal Trough over mainland Alaska.
Thermal trough remains along the north slopes of the Alaska Range
from the Kuskokwim Valley to the Upper Tanana Valley with a
secondary branch extending from the Middle Tanana Valley to the
Noatak Valley. Not much change through Thursday morning, but the
high will move to 400 nm north of Point Barrow at 1024 mb, and
the pressure gradient will tighten up over the Brooks Range, and
the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait. 987 mb low remains in the
Northeast Pacific. By Friday morning, not much change, but the
high moves to 200 nm north of Point Barrow at 1025 mb, and a 1003
mb low will move over the Seward Peninsula enhancing the already
compressed pressure gradient over the Chukchi Sea.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus and fog continues to be
the biggest issue along the coast. Expect some isolated
thunderstorms and showers in the Brooks Range. Not seeing much
change to that scenario through Friday. Temperatures near the
coast continue to be cool with temperatures in the 30s, and as you
move inland temperatures will be much warmer. Temperatures will
start cooling later today as cooler air aloft moves south over the
Coast and Plains. Flood Advisories continue for the Colville and
Kuparuk Rivers. The 06/1130Z GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR Probability
products still have not changed significantly in at least 10 days.
Visible Satellite imagery shows more stratus moving west over the
coast. Observations in the coastal areas match up well with the
area indicated and show ceilings in the 200 to 700 foot range.
Winter like weather system will move to the Central and Eastern
Arctic Coast and Brooks Range Saturday night.

West Coast and Western Interior...Another day with much of the
activity inland with Thunderstorms and showers developing through
the day. No change expect in the intensity of the thunderstorms as
heavy downpours with up to 0.50 inch of rainfall, small hail
generally less than 0.50 inch, and gusty winds to 35 mph. Weak
offshore flow south of the Bering Strait, so expect Sea Breeze
development in the coastal zone (within 10 miles of the coast)
during the afternoon hours, with a return to offshore flow
overnight. Pressure gradient has tightened over the Chukchi Sea
and Bering Strait with winds to 30 mph. Temperatures in the inland
areas rising into the 70s today while coastal areas will range
from the lower 40s on the Outer Capes and St Lawrence Island to
the mid 60s on the Norton Sound Coast.

Central and Eastern Interior...Another round of thunderstorm and
shower activity, but not as intense as Tuesday. Thunderstorm
activity will be confined to the Southern Interior, mainly south
of Fairbanks. Thunderstorm development mainly after noon, with
some lingering into the early morning hours. Heavy downpours with
up to 0.25 inch of rainfall, small hail generally less than 0.50
inch, and gusty winds to 35 mph may accompany the strongest
thunderstorms. Thermal trough remains over the Southern Interior
with generally light winds south of the Yukon River. Winds to
around 15 mph east of Arctic Village, and northeast of Fort Yukon
today. Temperatures a couple degrees cooler today and Thursday.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.Fire Weather...Widespread isolated to scattered thunderstorm
activity from range to range, and from just inland on the West
Coast to the AlCan Border continues. Thunderstorms will continue
to be of the wet variety with Precipitable Water values from 0.25
to 0.95 inch. Lightning activity Tuesday was double Mondays, but
expect it will fall back to the Monday level of around 2500
strikes today. Area of highest activity will extend from the
Upper Tanana Valley south of Fairbanks along the Western Alaska
Range, and most of the Western Interior areas. Temperatures in the
70s for most interior/inland locations. Winds less than 15 mph
with the exception of the area east of Arctic Village, and
northeast of Fort Yukon where winds will be around 15 mph with
near Red Flag conditions during the afternoon hours today and
Thursday. Relative humidity values falling into the 20s to lower
30s again today with a few teen values in the Tanana Valley, and
the Upper Yukon Flats. Relative Humidity recovery will continue to
be good with maximum values above 60 percent. For the latest Fire
Weather information go to www.weather.gov/arh/fire.

&&

.Hydrology...Rivers of concern at this time continue to be the
Colville, and Kuparuk with the Kuparuk running near flood stage,
but currently falling. The Colville has been reported to be
falling with ice flowing through, but a jam can occur at any time,
so Flood Advisories remain in place for both rivers. Melting and
runoff will slow the remainder of the week as temperatures cool.
For the latest breakup and flooding information go to
www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Extended solutions performing
poorly, but there is agreement on a strong cold front moving to
the Central and Eastern Arctic Coast Sunday with winter like
temperatures and weather from Wainwright east over most of the
Arctic and Brooks Range. Potential for heavy snow with 4 to 6
inches of snow Sunday morning through Monday afternoon with
temperatures in the 20s to lower 30s, and winds turning from the
northwest to north at 15 to 30 mph. South of the Brooks Range,
cold air will dive into the Central and Eastern Interior, and
Sunday night into Wednesday temperatures north of Fairbanks will
be significantly cooler with highs in the 50s, and lows in some of
the low lying areas falling to around freezing. Thunderstorms and
showers will accompany the front as it moves into the area,
mainly from Fairbanks east. The West Coast and Western Interior
will be relatively quiet as high pressure builds southeast over
the area. Expect some stratus and fog in the Chukchi Sea and
Kotzebue Sound, otherwise offshore flow will keep conditions
partly cloudy.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flood Advisories for portions of AKZ203.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

SDB JUN 18