Gale Warning 46, NWS Fairbanks, AK

062 
FZAK52 PAFG 231223
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
423 AM AKDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-240230-
423 AM AKDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 973 mb low in the central Bering will deepen to 967 mb by this
evening. A weather front will move through the Yukon Delta this
morning and reach the Southern Chukchi coast Tuesday AM. A 976 mb
low will form over Nunivak Island Tuesday and reach St. Lawrence
Island Tuesday evening as a 969 mb low.

$$

PKZ200-240230-
Norton Sound-
423 AM AKDT Mon Apr 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-240230-
Dall Point to Wales-
423 AM AKDT Mon Apr 23 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 9 ft. Freezing 
fog. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog. Snow showers. Freezing
spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...W winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-240230-
Kotzebue Sound-
423 AM AKDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...SE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-240230-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
423 AM AKDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...SE winds 20 kt.  

$$

COWMAN Apr 18

980 
FZAK52 PAFG 240008
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
408 PM AKDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-241415-
408 PM AKDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A weather front from Nome east will move to along the Brooks 
Range by 4pm Tue. A second weather front from Gambell to the Yukon
Delta will move north and diminish over the southern Chukchi Sea 
Tue pm. A 977 mb low developing in the southeast Bering Sea early 
Tue will move to near St Lawrence Island as a 969 mb low by 4pm 
Tue, near Gambell as a 981 mb low by 4pm Wed, and to near the 
Bering Strait as a 993 mb low by 4pm Thu. A 970 mb low in the 
southern Bering Sea will dissipate over the Yukon Delta early Wed


$$

PKZ200-241415-
Norton Sound-
408 PM AKDT Mon Apr 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow and rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-241415-
Dall Point to Wales-
408 PM AKDT Mon Apr 23 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.WED...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.THU...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-241415-
Kotzebue Sound-
408 PM AKDT Mon Apr 23 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Rain and snow. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 25 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-241415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
408 PM AKDT Mon Apr 23 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Rain and snow. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Rain and snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Snow.
.WED...E winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 25 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...S winds 25 kt.  

$$

Apr 18

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
340 PM AKDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
A long wave pattern consisting of a trough over the Bering Sea
with a ridge over NW Canada and northern Alaska will progress east
through Wed to a trough over the Eastern Bering and West Coast of
Alaska and Ridge over Western Canada. A series of progressively
stronger short wave troughs will move north over Alaska in this
flow, with each trough cutting into the ridge and pulling the
trough east. There will be occluded fronts moving north coincident
with each strong short wave.

This pattern will cause increasingly strong south flow over
Northern Alaska with temperatures warming to well above normal by
Tue. This will cause increasing chance of rain and snow along the
West Coast and Western Interior Mon PM into Tue, while the
Eastern Interior has increasing Chinook flow, with very warm
temperatures and very strong winds over the Tanana Valley Mon
night and Tue.

Surface...
A ridge of high pressure north of the Arctic Coast will persist
into Tue and then weaken Wed. This is causing areas of stratus
and fog along the Arctic Coast from Barrow east. This is also
causing east winds that will increase Mon night and Tue.= as
fronts approach from the south.

An Arctic Front stretching from Eagle to Nome will move to Eagle
to the Bering Strait by 4am Mon, to Old Crow to Kotzebue by 4pm
Mon. along the Brooks Range crest by 4am Tue, and to Barter
Island to Point Lay by 4pm Tue, then persist into Wed. There are
east winds 15 kt along this front. This will cause winds to
increase to 20-30kt over the North Slope north of the front Mon
into Tue.

An occluded front in southeast Bering will move to the Yukon Delta
by 4am Mon, to Gambell to Shageluk by 4pm Mon, then dissipate
along a Wale to Denali line by 4am Tue. Rain and snow will occur
with this front with no snow accumulation below 2000 feet.

A strong low southwest of Shemya will move to the southcentral
Bering by 4pm Mon, to the central Bering as a 978 mb low by 4pm
Tue, and to near Gambell as a 990 mb low by 4pm Wed. A front
extending east from this low will move over the southeast Bering
Mon, to St Matthew Island to a frontal wave near the YK Delta by
4am Tue, and by 4pm Fri to a frontal wave in western Norton Sound
with the front from the Bering Strait to Kotzebue to McGrath.
Frontal will move to Gambell to Point Hope to Atigun Pass to
Northway by 4am Wed, and to Provideniya to Barrow to Barter Island
by 4pm Wed. Expect rain and snow along the front, with no
accumulation below 3000 ft south of the Brooks Range. Could see 4
inches of snow above 3000 feet in some locations.
Could see several inches of snow with the front over the Eastern
North Slope, with freezing rain possible along the coast.

Expect south winds increasing to 50kt across the Alaska Range Tue,
and south to 30 kt over the Brooks range tue night into Wed. Winds
will decrease west of the front.

Another Wave is expected to move north over the YK delta Wed
bringing more rain/snow and winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well at the surface and aloft. Similar
solutions are shown through 4pm Mon, then the ECMF takes the
short wave energy further northeast than the GFS and NAM. Since
there is a strong jet streak moving northeast over SW Alaska Mon
night and over the Interior Tue, and North Slope Wed, this favors
the ECMF solution of moving the front and weather northeast
faster than the GFS/NAM for Tue into Wed.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong Chinook winds along Alaska Range Tue.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch for AKZ223.

High Wind Warning for AKZ225-AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.
&&

JB APR 18