Gale Warning 44, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
124 PM AKDT Fri Apr 13 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Quiet early spring pattern continues over northern Alaska.

The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12z surface
analysis and verified well against the 18z surface analysis. Model
spread remains minimal in the the short range and very reasonable
in the mid range and long range.

Aloft a 500 mb a 500 DAM low over Banks Island will lift north and
east a a trough currently along the north slope coast moves south
and east to be along the eastern Brooks Range Saturday morning and
along a McGrath to Fairbanks to McKenzie Delta line Saturday
evening. The trough will continue south and east and will be along
a Banks Island to Northway line Sunday morning. An upper level
ridge builds over the west coast Saturday and over the western
Interior Sunday. A strong shortwave moves north out of the
southern Bering Sea and will be located near Nunivak Island
Sunday morning and along the Bering Strait Monday morning.

On the surface a 1030 mb high pressure system over Wrangel Island
will continue to move south and east and will be located over the
eastern North Slope as a 1033 mb high Saturday and over the
northern Yukon Sunday morning.

A 985 mb low moves north out of the southern Bering Sea Sunday
morning and will push a strong front north east over the lower YK
Delta and St Lawrence Island Sunday morning. Expect Gale fore
winds over marine waters near St Lawrence Island and gusty winds
over the Lower YK Delta and Norton Sound. Snow mixing with rain
will move into the lower YK Delta Sunday morning and north over
the Seward Peninsula and the Nulato Hills Sunday afternoon. The
front rapidly stretches and weakens Sunday night and monday as it
moves into the western interior. Expect several inches of snow
over St Lawrence Island and the Lower YK Delta with a transition
to rain during the daylight hours. Minimal blowing and drifting of
snow is expected with temperatures near freezing. Visibilities
will be highly variable with periods of heavy snow reducing
visibility at times and periods of improved visibility as the snow
mixes with and changes to rain. Blowing snow is not expected to
produce widespread reductions to visibility with this system. The
low continue to move north and curls back to the west as an
upper level ridge builds over western Alaska. Expect warm days
and chilly mornings under mostly clear skies over the central and
eastern interior through early next week. Another round of
precipitation will move north out of Bristol Bay into the lower YK
Delta Monday and Tuesday, however precipitation is expected to be
minimal over the rest of northern Alaska through the middle of
next week.

Temperatures will slowly climb next week over the central and
eastern interior while below freezing periods at night will
decrease in length and will allow for increased melt as the snow
pack continues to ripen and melt out. Will need to monitor for
increased overflow and runoff next week as temperatures increase.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.
&&

CCC APR 18