Gale Warning 35, NWS Fairbanks, AK

753 
FZAK52 PAFG 171223
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
423 AM AKDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-180200-
423 AM AKDT Sat Mar 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A weather front associated with a 965 mb low near Kamchatka will 
move to the Bering Strait and Southwest Coast today, and the 
southern Chukchi Sea and into the West Coast tonight. A broad area
of low pressure will persist over the area as the low near 
Kamchatka moves to the Gulf of Anadyr by Mon morning. 

$$

PKZ200-180200-
Norton Sound-
423 AM AKDT Sat Mar 17 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.SUN...S winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Snow.
.MON...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow showers. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-180200-
Dall Point to Wales-
423 AM AKDT Sat Mar 17 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. 
.MON...SW winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. 
.WED...SE winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-180200-
Kotzebue Sound-
423 AM AKDT Sat Mar 17 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 5 kt increasing to 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt increasing to 25 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-180200-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
423 AM AKDT Sat Mar 17 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt.  

$$

SDB Mar 18

063 
FZAK52 PAFG 172159
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
159 PM AKDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-181430-
159 PM AKDT Sat Mar 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A weather front associated with a low in far eastern Russia will
push over west coast of Alaska south of the Bering Strait this
evening. The front will push north across the Chukchi Sea 
tonight and Sunday. A broad area of low pressure will persist 
over the area as the low near Kamchatka moves to the Gulf of 
Anadyr by Mon morning and into Norton Sound by Mon evening.

$$

PKZ200-181430-
Norton Sound-
159 PM AKDT Sat Mar 17 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.SUN...S winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.MON...SW winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Snow showers. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-181430-
Dall Point to Wales-
159 PM AKDT Sat Mar 17 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 35 kt becoming S 25 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. 
.MON...SW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.WED...SE winds 25 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-181430-
Kotzebue Sound-
159 PM AKDT Sat Mar 17 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-181430-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
159 PM AKDT Sat Mar 17 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 20 kt.  

$$

Mar 18

017 
FZAK52 PAFG 181222
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
422 AM AKDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-190200-
422 AM AKDT Sun Mar 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A trough of low pressure extends from a 978 mb low near Kamchatka
to a 995 mb low in the Gulf of Anadyr to a 999 mb low in the 
Bering Strait with the front extending southeast to King Salmon. 
The low near Kamchatka moves to the Dateline this evening and the
Bering Strait Mon morning. The low in the Bering Strait moves N 
to Cape Lisburne. A second weather front associated with the low 
near the Dateline will move to the West Coast tonight and inland 
Mon.
 
$$

PKZ200-190200-
Norton Sound-
422 AM AKDT Sun Mar 18 2018

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Snow.
.MON...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Snow showers. VSBY 1 NM or
less. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-190200-
Dall Point to Wales-
422 AM AKDT Sun Mar 18 2018

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. 
.MON...W winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.WED...SE winds 25 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-190200-
Kotzebue Sound-
422 AM AKDT Sun Mar 18 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt becoming S 10 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-190200-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
422 AM AKDT Sun Mar 18 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt becoming SW 20 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. 
.THU...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

SDB Mar 18

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
434 AM AKDT Fri Mar 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Good run to run continuity and once again the short term
solutions appear to be in very good agreement. They start
diverging a little later in the midrange than they did yesterday,
and mainly with the timing of the shortwaves that will be moving
across the area. Solutions continue to show a warming period
through the weekend south of the Brooks Range with a pool of cold
air moving east over the Arctic. Going to use the same blend of
solutions as yesterday with a lean to the GFS today. The big issue
with precipitation is location. The GFS and ECMWF have it
covering the Fairbanks zone, while the NAM would have it only
covering the northwest half of the zone with Fairbanks on the edge
of the precipitation.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging over the southeast mainland with
shortwaves moving over the top of it across the Central and
Eastern Interior today as they move away from a 523 dam low 150 nm
south of Unalaska. A 505 dam low has moved to 200 nm west of
Point Lay this morning with a trough extending over Point Lay to
Galena. The low will move to 50 nm north of Point Barrow by this
evening with the shortwave lying from Point Barrow to Beaver, and
by Saturday morning the low will be 200 nm north of Kuparuk with
the shortwave over the Yukon Territory. A 532 dam high develops
over the Central Bering Sea and moves to St Matthew Island later
this morning, then over the Lower Yukon Delta as the ridging over
the Gulf of Alaska merges with ridging over Chukotka. As the
ridges merge, the low south of Unalaska will move southeast into
the Pacific, while a 531 dam low will develop near Nunivak Island
and merge with a trough associated with a 493 dam low near
Kamchatka that moves over the West Coast Saturday morning and into
the Western Interior Saturday night as the ridge is pushed east
to lie from Skagway to Point Lay Sunday morning. Strong southwest
flow will develop over the state as the ridge moves east, and a
second stronger shortwave will move to the coast Sunday night. At
850 hpa...A slight warming trend across the area as the -10C
isotherm moves north to lie from Chalkyitsik to Tanana to Scammon
Bay this morning, and Chalkyitsik to Huslia to Gambell by Saturday
morning. As the -10C isotherm moves north a ball of cold air will
move east across the Arctic tonight with around -26C
temperatures. The -20C isotherm will move north of the coast by
Saturday evening, and the -10C isotherm will move to the Brooks
Range.

Surface...A trough of low pressure will set up southwest to
northeast across the interior today from a 1000 mb low near Cape
Newenham to Kantishna to Central, then east. The trough will
persist into the evening with a 1011 mb low developing south of
Old Crow in the Yukon Territory. High pressure will persist over
the Gulf of Alaska, while high pressure over Chukotka will push
east across the Chukchi Sea over the Arctic and into the northwest
Interior. The high pressure will continue to build east across
the Arctic tonight, and push south into the Central and Eastern
Interior squeezing out the trough. A 1021 mb high will develop
over the Yukon Territory by Saturday morning. Troughing remains
over the Arctic along 73N and it will persists as a series of lows
slowly move east. The trough will be squeezed out to the east as
high pressure over the Arctic Coast moves east, high pressure over
the Pole pushes south, and a weather front associated with a 965
mb low near Kamchatka moves to the West Coast with a 995 mb low
developing in the Eastern Bering Sea, then moving north into the
Chukchi Sea Sunday. The low will persist in the Chukchi Sea and
weaken as the low near Kamchatka moves to St Lawrence Island
Monday morning at 1004 mb and the weather front moves east across
the interior.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Trough persists about 150 nm
offshore as high pressure is building east over the Arctic Plains
and Coast tonight. Southwest to west winds over most of the area
at 10 to 20 mph. Patchy stratus floating across the area will
bring ceilings down at times with some flurries of light snow. No
significant accumulation expected. Temperatures a cooler as a pool
of colder air moves east across the area today and tonight.

West Coast and Western Interior...High pressure building across
most of the area today, but there is a lot of low stratus
associated with a decaying weather front over the Chukchi Sea on
the front edge of the high pressure that may move over the coastal
areas. Latest GOES satellite imagery shows it moving to the east
slowly. Expect a few flurries of even some light snow with the
stratus, but nothing significant. With the trough setting up to
the south there will be some cloudy areas mainly south of Galena,
and some heavier snow is expected in the Upper Kuskokwim River
Valley today along that front/trough. Canceling the Winter Weather
Advisories for zones 215 and 227 since there is not as much snow
as previously expected. The next front will move to St Lawrence
Island Saturday, and brings the potential for near Blizzard
conditions, so Winter Storm Warning has been raised for zone 213,
and Winter Weather Advisory for zone 214.

Central and Eastern Interior...Increasing clouds this morning
with snow developing along that line from Kantishna to Central,
mainly south of the Yukon River, and northwest of Chicken.
Heaviest snowfall will be around Lake Minchumina, and in the White
Mountains with up to 3 inches of new snow today. Expect around 1
inch in Fairbanks and vicinity, and south along the Parks Highway.
Along the Richardson the heaviest snow will be south of Delta
Junction with around 2 inches possible. Along the Alaska highway
expect some flurries with no significant accumulation. There is a
slight chance of rain mixing with the snow in the Middle Tanana
Valley today. Winds generally light and variable except near the
Alaska Range Pass where winds will be gusting to around 50 mph
during the day. Temperatures slightly warmer then next couple days
as highs in the Middle Tanana Valley rise to the upper 30s.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Models solutions continue to
diverge significantly in the extended periods. They do show
agreement on the building of a high amplitude ridge over the
Eastern Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea by the middle of next week,
with a trough digging south over the AlCan Border. With that being
said, will be using an ensemble based approach much the same as
WPC. This approach will bring a quiet weather scenario to the West
Coast, Western Interior, and Western Arctic Coast, with a more
active weather pattern to the Eastern Arctic Coast, and the
Central and Eastern Interior as fronts dive south out of the
Arctic across the area.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Advisory for AKZ226.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ214.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210.

&&

SDB MAR 18