Gale Warning 23, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
506 AM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Models...22/00Z Solutions are in very good agreement through
around 48 hours before they start to diverge. Solutions are not as
aggressive in bringing warm air into the Upper Kuskokwim and
Central Interior today so the threat of Freezing Precipitation is
greatly reduced. Will be leaning toward a blend of the NAM and GFS
snowfall amounts because temperatures aloft are a bit cooler than
anticipated and snow ratios will be a bit higher than previously
anticipated.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridge axis that was over the West Coast
yesterday has moved over the Yukon Territory. Long wave trough
that extended from the Chukchi Sea to the Aleutians over 170W
yesterday has moved over the West Coast this morning and by this
afternoon it will lie from Ambler to Prince William Sound. A
shortwave over the northeast Arctic will swing south to the
Eastern Arctic Coast by this evening. A series of shortwaves will
move from the Northwest Arctic Coast southeast into the Central
Interior, then east into the Yukon Territory. A ridge lies
northwest to southeast across the Central Bering Sea this morning
and will move over the Gulf of Anadyr and the Southwest Alaska
Coast by Friday morning. The ridge will continue to move east as
it is pushed south of the Alaska Range and will be over the
Southern yukon Territory and Southeast Panhandle by Saturday
morning. A 503 dam low will move over Kamchatka this morning,
moving over the Lower Yukon Delta to Prince William Sound by
Saturday morning at 518 dam. At 850 hpa...Temperatures are a bit
cooler than previously advertised and will remain below zero over
the forecast area today. The -10 isotherm will be over the West
Coast and Arctic Coast today, with colder temperatures pushing
east over the forecast area by Friday morning.

Surface...High pressure over the Interior is weakening as a 999
mb low over Point Hope moves east over the Brooks Range and merges
with a 991 mb low over Banks Island this afternoon. A 1014 mb low
develops over the Kenai Peninsula this morning and moves east to
Yakutat by this evening. High pressure across the Central Bering
Sea will move to lie from Bristol Bay to the Gulf of Anadyr and a
1034 mb high over Chukotka late this evening. Ridging will push
east over the south slopes of the Alaska Range this evening and
east over the Brooks Range tonight as weak troughing persists over
the Upper Yukon Flats. High pressure will move over the southwest
mainland by Friday morning with a 1018 mb center over McGrath and
ridging extending northwest over the Chukotsk Peninsula. A 994 mb
low will move to the Western Bering Sea by Friday morning, then
east to St Matthew Island Friday evening as a weather front moves
to the southwest mainland coast. The trough will string out to lie
along 60N with a 988 mb low in the Gulf of Alaska. A 996 mb low
over Banks Island will move east as a 981 mb low drops southwest
to Banks Island by Saturday morning a 970 mb.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Cloudy, snow, winds increasing,
blowing snow developing on the Eastern Arctic Coast, with Blizzard
conditions developing from Kaktovik east tonight, as the pressure
gradient tightens over the are, so have issued a Warning for zone
204. Generally northwest to west winds 10 to 25 mph. Winds 35 mph
gust to 45 mph from Kaktovik east Friday. Several fronts will
move into the area through the weekend bringing strong gusty winds
and blowing snow. Temperatures cooling.

West Coast and Western Interior...Precipitation moving inland
today with improving conditions in the coastal areas by Friday
morning. A band of strong winds will move southeast across the
Chukchi Sea over the northern Seward Peninsula, and northern of
Galena, but south of Ambler. Expect winds gusting to around 40 mph
in some areas. Blowing snow issues in a few areas through the
night with visibility one half mile or less at times. Temperatures
cooling.

Central and Eastern Interior...The potential for freezing
precipitation has diminished as the airmass has cooled across the
interior. In the Fairbanks area that means some slightly higher
snowfall amounts are now expected through Friday morning with 4 to
7 inches expected, and up to 10 inches expected in some outlying
areas. Winds picking today with a band of stronger winds extending
from Minchumina to the Upper Chena Basin, then southeast over the
Delta Junction area to Dot Lake. In Fairbanks winds potentially
gusting to 35 mph with winds in the higher elevations gusting
around 40 mph. A second band of winds will be over the Upper Yukon
Flats. It still looks like winds will diminish by Friday around
noon for most areas. Areas of blowing snow will reduce visibility
to less than 1/2 mile at times. Temperatures continuing to cool.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Will most likely be using a
blend of the Ensemble means as the current solutions offer little
in agreement. So expect weak high pressure over the interior with
a low in the Beaufort Sea spinning a front to the Arctic Coast,
and a low in the Bering Sea moving to the Eastern Bering Sea.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Blizzard Warning for AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ216-
AKZ217-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ227.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ215-PKZ220.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

SDB FEB 18