Gale Warning 119, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
334 AM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Generally quiet conditions expected for much of northern Alaska
through the next several days. Wind will be the catalyst for the
main concerns, primarily along the Arctic Coast, the eastern
Brooks Range, and the Ray Mountains.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a trough extends from Fort McPherson west to
Fort Yukon to Bettles. A high is centered 150 NM northwest of
Utqiagvik. A low is centered 50 NM northwest of St Lawrence
Island. A low is centered 150 NM southeast of Whittier and a low
is centered 300 NM south of Adak. As the high northwest of
Utqiagvik slides east today the trough that extends to Bettles
this morning will slide east across the Yukon Territory. The high
will lift northeast across the Beaufort Sea through mid-week.
Behind the high, low pressure will extend east across the North
Slope by Tuesday night. This low pressure is lifted north as
ridging builds in across the Interior of the state. The low
southeast of Whittier this morning will dissipate today as ridging
builds north across the Gulf of Alaska and into the Interior and
the low south of Adak moves eastward. By Tuesday morning, this low
will be located 125 NM southeast of Sand Point and have two
centers of circulation, with one moving north over Port Heiden by
Wednesday morning and the other 200 NM southwest of Sitka. The low
northwest of St Lawrence Island will move little through Wednesday.

Models...00Z model runs initialized well against 00Z surface
observations. Models handle the overall synoptic pattern well
through mid-week. The current trend of model guidance of being too
warm with temperatures continues and opted to trend temperatures
colder than guidance.

North Slope and Brooks Range: Primary concern the next several
days remains centered around wind and wind chills. High pressure
continues to build in across the Beaufort Sea, with a weak surface
trough lingering across the North Slope. The stratus layer that
was in place yesterday across the North Slope has eroded away
some, with clear skies observed at Wainwright and Utqiagvik,
however, areas of stratus,fog, and flurries continue this morning.
Am optimistic that skies will clear today, paving the way for
colder temperatures. Gusty winds expected today across the western
Brooks Range. As the surface high slides eastward tonight and
Tuesday, a trough of low pressure will strengthen north of the
Brooks Range, tightening the pressure gradient across the eastern
Brooks Range and along the Arctic Coast. This will result in
gusty southerly flow through the passes and easterly winds along
the Arctic Coast. The combination of the winds and cold
temperatures will result in wind chill values of near 50 below
zero. A Wind Chill Advisory remains in place for zone 206,
primarily for Anaktuvuk Pass, through noon today. Winds are
expected to diminish through the morning hours there and become
southerly tonight. Have maintained the Wind Chill Advisories for
zones 201 and 203, with wind chill values as low as 50 below
zero. Upgraded the Wind Chill Advisory for zone 204 to a Winter
Weather Advisory, given the likelihood of blowing snow reducing
visibilities to one half mile or less and wind chill values as low
as 50 below zero.

West Coast and Western Interior: An inverted trough remains draped
across the West Coast and Chukchi Sea this morning. As a closed
surface low over Norton Sound lifts to the northwest this morning,
snow will taper off for the Y-K Delta this morning and the Seward
Peninsula this afternoon. Another round of snow is expected
Tuesday and Wednesday as the next front moves north. Easterly
winds have increased across the Kotzebue Sound area and areas
north as the pressure gradient has tightened. Gusts to 30 mph are
expected to continue through tonight, with winds decreasing Tuesday.

Central and Eastern Interior: A surface trough remains in place
along a line from Eagle to Fairbanks extending southwest to
Anderson to Trapper Creek this morning. Patchy stratus persists
across the Interior. Primary concern for the Interior continues to
be the winds. A tight pressure gradient will continue across the
Interior today and tonight, bringing wind gusts to around 40 mph
to the Ray Mountains north of Fairbanks. The gusty winds will
cause blowing and drifting snow at times over summits along the
Dalton and Elliott Highways. The combination of the winds along
with the cold temperatures could produce wind chill values around
40 below zero tonight.  As ridging builds in over the Interior,
mostly clear skies are expected through mid-week, though some
patchy stratus may linger, which will allow for temperatures to
fall into the -15F to -25F range for many valley locations the
next couple of nights.Winter Weather Advisories are out for zones
219 and 221. Extended the Winter Weather Advisory for zone 219 out
through 3 pm Tuesday and for zone 221 through 9 am Tuesday, and
mentioned the possibility for wind chills to 40 below zero. Issued
a Wind Chill Advisory for zone 218 for tonight given winds around
15 mph.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ203-AKZ206-AKZ218.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ204-AKZ219-AKZ221.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

EB DEC 18