Gale Warning 115, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
319 AM AKST Mon Dec 3 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The active weather pattern continues as a low approaches and moves
across the Aleutians during the first half of the week.

Models...00Z model solutions initialized a couple of millibars too
low with the low over the Chukchi Sea and the low south of the
Aleutians. Models are in fair agreement with the large scale
features through Tuesday, with spread increased Wednesday and
Thursday with the Aleutian low.

Aloft...At 500 mb...The large scale pattern of troughing over the
Bering Sea and ridging across the Interior will largely continue
for the first half of the week.

A 510 dam low is centered 350 NM northwest of Point Hope, while
ridging over the eastern Gulf of Alaska extends northward into the
far eastern Interior. A shortwave is draped across the middle of
the state, while a 582 dam low is located about 300 NM southwest
of Adak.

The 510 dam low will drift northwest today and tonight to be a 512
dam low located 275 NM northwest of Utqiagvik by 3 am Tuesday
morning, while the shortwave over the middle of the state lifts
northeast today and tonight to be east of Kaktovik by 3 am
Tuesday. As the shortwave moves across the state today, ridging
across the far eastern Interior will be shunted eastward into the
Yukon Territory. Behind the shortwave, ridging will build in
across the west coast today and the Interior Tuesday, as a low
approaches the Aleutians from the southwest. This low will slowly
move eastward across the Aleutians through Wednesday. A 508 dam
low over the East Siberian Sea today will rotate through the flow
Tuesday to be a 512 dam low over the Chukchi Sea about 300 NM
northwest of Point Hope.

Surface...
This morning a 996 mb low is centered 250 NM northwest of Point
Lay, with a weather front extending east offshore the Arctic
Coast, and a secondary weather front extending south along a line
from Cape Lisburne to Point Lay to St Lawrence Island. A 1004 mb
low is centered near Kotzebue, with a trough extending southeast
along a line from Buckland to Galena to just west of Lake
Minchumina. A 1008 mb low is centered west of Port Clarence and a
960 mb low is centered 250 NM southwest of Adak.

The 996 mb low over the Chukchi Sea this morning will weaken to
1004 mb by 3 pm today as it lifts north and will continue to
weaken as it tracks northeast tonight and Tuesday.

The 1004 mb low centered near Kotzebue early this morning will
lift north across the western Brooks Range and weaken to be 1011
mb low north of Utqiagvik by 3 pm this afternoon, with a weather
front extending south from Utqiagvik to Kotzebue to Nome. The low
will continue to lift northeastward and weaken as it moves across
the Beaufort Sea tonight into Tuesday, taking the associated
fronts with it.

The 1008 mb low west of Port Clarence early this morning will move
east today and weaken.

The 960 mb low southwest of Adak will lift northeast to be 75 NM
southwest of Adak by 3 pm this afternoon and will continue to
slowly slide east northeast across the Aleutians to be 75 NM east
of Nikolski by 3 pm Tuesday and continue to slowly drift eastward
through Wednesday. An occluded front will push north and east
across the Y-K Delta and western Interior on Tuesday and continue
to move northeast Tuesday into Wednesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Snow will taper off from the south to the north today, before the
low moving across the Aleutians and its associated front, bring
the next round of precip Tuesday and Wednesday. Much of the precip
will be in the form of snow, but freezing rain is possible across
portions of the Yukon Delta and lower Yukon Valley late Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Snowfall totals of 2 to 4 inches will be
common, with isolated higher amounts of 5 to 7 inches. The low
will also bring east to northeast winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts
to 45 mph to the west coast Tuesday, with winds of 40 to 45 mph
with gusts to 60 mph possible on St Lawrence Island. The
combination of the strong winds with falling snow, will bring
reduced visibility to some areas, with blizzard conditions not out
of the question. Given some uncertainty in how far north or south
of the Aleutians the low tracks and differences in strengths,
differences in moisture, will hold off on issuing any advisories
or warnings at this point.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A weather front is north of the Arctic Coast this morning and will
continue to lift northward through the day, while a cold front
will move east across the western Brooks Range this morning and
will lift northeast this afternoon and tonight. Winds will shift
around to the west today and increase, with snow moving northeast
across the Brooks Range and North Slope through tonight. Snowfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches possible through tonight. Fairly
quiet conditions expected Tuesday, with the next round of snow
Tuesday night into Wednesday with another 1 to 3 inches possible.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A shortwave is moving across the Interior this morning bringing
snow to much of the region, with additional snow accumulations of
1 to 2 inches possible during the day. A strong mountain wave
moving across the Alaska Range Tuesday and Wednesday will bring
another round of gap winds to the Alaska Range passes, with
advisory level winds likely in zone 226 with gusts approaching 60
mph and 50 mph in zone 225. A weather front moving northeast
across the central and eastern Interior Tuesday night into
Wednesday will bring snow to the region, however, downsloping from
the Alaska Range may shadow out snow for the Fairbanks east and
south.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ212-AKZ216-AKZ217.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

EB DEC 18