Gale Warning 111, NWS Fairbanks, AK

562 
FZAK52 PAFG 291312
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
412 AM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-300315-
412 AM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A high pressure ridge extends east from the Siberian Arctic at 80N
to the Canadian high Arctic. A weather front spanning the northern
coastline will weaken today. A 996 mb low just west of the Bering
Strait will weaken and merge with a 980 mb low moving north into
the Gulf of Anadyr this evening.

$$

PKZ200-300315-
Norton Sound-
412 AM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Snow showers.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SAT...SE winds 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Blowing snow. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-300315-
Dall Point to Wales-
412 AM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt becoming SE 40 kt. Seas 6 ft building to
12 ft. Snow showers. Heavy Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing rain and snow.
Freezing spray. 
.SAT...SW winds 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing rain. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-300315-
Kotzebue Sound-
412 AM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

.TODAY...SE winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow.
.SAT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN...SE winds 20 kt. 
.MON...S winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-300315-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
412 AM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...E winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

CCC Nov 18

483 
FZAK52 PAFG 300042
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
342 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-301515-
342 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A weather front associated with a 978
low in the western Bering Sea currently stretches from Chukotsk
Peninsula to St. Lawrence Island to the Yukon Delta. This front
will move north tonight weakening as it moves north of the Bering
Strait early Friday morning. A 974 mb low will move north to near
Nunivak Island Friday night and will move north along the coast on
Saturday. 

$$

PKZ200-301515-
Norton Sound-
342 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Snow. VSBY
1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow and freezing rain.
Freezing spray. 
.SAT...S winds 45 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. 
.SUN...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-301515-
Dall Point to Wales-
342 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 40 kt becoming S 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.FRI...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing rain. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT...SW winds 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and freezing rain.
Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-301515-
Kotzebue Sound-
342 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.MON...S winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-301515-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
342 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...E winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow and freezing rain. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SUN...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

Nov 18

515 
FZAK52 PAFG 301215
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
315 AM AKST Fri Nov 30 2018

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-010315-
315 AM AKST Fri Nov 30 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A weather front associated with a 978 low in the western Bering 
Sea currently stretches from Chukotsk Peninsula to St. Lawrence 
Island to the Yukon Delta. This front will move north weakening 
as it moves north of the Bering Strait early Friday morning.
A 977 mb low will move over Nunivak Island Saturday evening then
move northward towards the Bering strait Saturday morning.

$$

PKZ200-010315-
Norton Sound-
315 AM AKST Fri Nov 30 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow with freezing rain.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...SE winds 45 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow and freezing rain. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-010315-
Dall Point to Wales-
315 AM AKST Fri Nov 30 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...W winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-010315-
Kotzebue Sound-
315 AM AKST Fri Nov 30 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Freezing rain. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-010315-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
315 AM AKST Fri Nov 30 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow and freezing rain. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Blowing snow. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...S winds 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

Nov 18

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
358 AM AKST Wed Nov 28 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The snow and blowing snow continues to diminish today over the
north slope with the Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow for
Utqiagvik hanging on through noon. There is potential for a strong
storm moving north through the Bering Sea Friday into Sunday. The
evolution of this system will be the focus of our attention over
the next few days.

Aloft at 500 mb, a trough over the eastern Bering Sea and the
West Coast of Alaska will continue to weaken and move east ahead
of a weak upper level ridge that is expected to push east out of
the Central Bering Sea and into the Eastern Bering Sea Thursday
and over Alaska on Friday. The longwave redevelops over the
western Bering beginning Thursday and deepens over the central
Bering Sea through the weekend. A strong shortwave rotating around
the base of the longwave over the Aleutians on Friday and moving
north into the southeast Bering Sea Friday night combined with
favorable dynamics will produce strong cyclogenisis in the
southern Bering Sea late Friday and Saturday.

West Coast and Western Interior, a frontal system extends
southwest from a weak low currently located in Norton Sound and
will be the focus today for light snow over the West Coast and
Western Interior along and south of the Seward Peninsula today and
over Kotzebue Sound tonight. The low will continue to weaken and
move through the Bering Strait into the the southern Chukchi Sea
tonight.

On the North Slope, conditions continue to improve with both winds
and snow diminishing and visibilities improving at most locations
overnight. Conditions are expected to improve over Utqiagvik
through the morning. Gusty east winds along with low ceilings, fog
and flurries will continue through Thursday over the North Slope.

Light snow will move into the Central Interior today and into the
Eastern Interior tonight ahead of a weak front rotating into the
interior around the weak low over Norton Sound. The front
continues to weaken with only a chance of light snow over the
interior. Temperatures aloft over the interior will drop a few
degrees, behind the front however cloud cover and light winds
will do little to improve the strong inversions currently over
interior valleys.

Gap winds through the Alaska Range Passes will pick up this
afternoon and continue into tonight but are expected to remain
below advisory criteria. Strong winds will likely develop ahead of
the front moving north over Alaska Range Saturday in association
with the strong low moving north through the Bering Sea on
Saturday.

The 00z model suite initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis and verified well against the 06z surface analysis. Model
spread on feature strength and location is reasonable through
Friday, however considerable spread exists between model families
and from run to run on the timing, track and strength of the
low/lows forecasted to move north through the Bering Sea Saturday
with some models advocating a single deep low and other model
families indicating multiple less deep low pressure systems moving
through the Bering Sea. Very large uncertainties exist on storm
surge guidance at this point as would be expected with the
considerable spread on storm track and strength. Continue to
monitor.

On the surface, a strong low pressure system moving east off of
the Kamchatka Peninsula Thursday will merge with a low moving
north over the Pribilof Islands Saturday morning and will deepen
rapidly as it moves north over the central Bering Sea Saturday and
into the Bering Strait Saturday night. The models continue to
struggle with the details on the strength and track of the low.
This system has the potential to bring strong winds and a mixture
of snow, rain and freezing rain to the west coast and western
Interior. At this point, there is still considerable uncertainty
in the exact timing and track of this system. This will affect the
placement of the strongest winds, heaviest precipitation and
highest water levels. We will have to continue to monitor this
system as it develops.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A strong storm system is
expected to move north through the Bering Sea Friday night into
Sunday. This system has the potential to bring elevated water
levels to the west coast as well as St. Lawrence Island. At this
point, there is still considerable uncertainty in the exact timing
and track of this system. This will affect the placement of the
highest water.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ202.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC NOV 18