Brisk Wind Advisory 83, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
310 PM AKST Wed Mar 7 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Transition continues that will push the more active
pattern we have been seeing south of our forecast area, but not
before it takes another swipe at the Lower Yukon Delta. Last
couple solutions have pulled back a bit with the winds and
precipitation. Going with a blend of the solutions with a lean
toward the higher precipitation values that the NAM is producing
yesterday may have been a little overdone, but it had been working
well, so will go that direction again, but cut the values back
some. Snow ratios have been too high for the last several days as
they don't seem to be handling the warmer airmass, so will
adjust them down in an attempt to improve the forecast snowfall
amounts. Will be nudging the precipitation probabilities higher
using the SREF.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Active pattern continues. A stacked 494 dam
low is now over the Gulf of Anadyr and will move to Nunivak Island
by Friday evening. A shortwave ahead of the low is spinning
onshore and lies from the Bering Strait to Marshall, then
southwest to the Central Aleutians. By Thursday morning the
shortwave will lie from Gambell to Red Dog to Indian Mountain with
the tail washing out as it pushed over ridging that extends from
the north from the Pacific to Old Crow YT. A 503 dam low 300 nm
northwest of Wainwright with troughing extending east to the
Beaufort Sea, then south of Banks Island will move to the Dateline
at 499 dam with a 508 mb low moving over the Coast of Banks Island
Thursday morning. The low over the Dateline will weaken and move
southwest over Siberia, then merge into the low that was over
Nunivak Island as it moves to Kodiak Island at 498 dam. Weak
ridging will build south over the Central Arctic with the low over
Banks Island moving over the Beaufort Sea. A 502 dam low will
develop over the Aleutians and move over Cook Inlet Thursday
night, then merge with the low over Kodiak Island. A fairly strong
shortwave will move over the Gulf of Alaska Coast Thursday night
and over the Interior by Friday afternoon. A 518 dam high will
develop over the Eastern Arctic Coast Friday afternoon and move
over the Plains at 524 dam by Saturday morning. At 850 hpa...There
is a surge of warm air this afternoon with the front that is
moving through, but temperatures moderate back fairly rapidly to
prefront temperatures. For the remainder of the area, not much
change.

Surface...High pressure persists over the eastern half of the
state with 974 mb low near the Gulf of Anadyr moving to Nunivak
Island by Thursday evening. A 1007 mb low will develop along the
front near Dutch Harbor this evening and move to Kodiak Island by
Thursday morning at 984 mb as it absorbs a dissipating 1006 mb low
south of Yakutat. The low will continue northeast to the Kenai
Peninsula Thursday night as it absorbs the low that was over
Nunivak Island. A broad area of cyclonic flow results and extends
from 40N to 80N, and 170E to 120W. Several waves will move around
the low and timing them is impractical. One of the waves will
spin over the Southeast Panhandle and move to lie from Kodiak
Island to the Ruby, then east over the Middle Tanana Valley to the
Northwest Territories. The pattern starts breaking down over the
interior as weak high pressure builds.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus will hang around, but
there may be a few breaks. A few flurries. Primarily winds from
the northeast and east over the area as broad area of low pressure
develops over the state with the low in the Gulf of Alaska. Winds
speeds generally 10 to 20 mph near the coast through Thursday
evening, then increasing to 15 to 30 mph. In the Plains the winds
will be lighter, and in the Brooks Range expect some gusty winds
to 35 mph tonight and tomorrow morning. Temperatures fairly steady
across the area with lows 0 to -10, and highs 0 to +10.

West Coast and Western Interior...Strong weather front is making
its way onshore spreading snow northeast this evening. Heaviest
snowfall will be this evening and overnight for most of the area
with some lingering snow over the northwest interior Thursday.
Strong winds also accompany the front, but not quite as strong as
they looked yesterday for some of the areas inland. Near Blizzard
conditions have moved to the Lower Yukon Delta already and expect
those to continue through most of the evening and spread northeast
with the front. Snowfall amounts are expected to be lower than
previous forecast but will maintain the current warnings and
advisories. There is a minor surge of warmer air to the west coast
from the Seward Peninsula south today so we have a slight chance
of freezing rain mainly south of Shaktoolik and Kaltag in the
Lower Yukon Delta and Western Interior. With that expect
temperatures to be fairly steady the next 24 hours, then cooling
slowly.

Central and Eastern Interior...Some clouds, some breaks, some
flurries, but mostly cloudy will prevail over the area. Expect
some breaks/clearing overnight and that will allow for good
diurnal cooling so have adjusted temperatures down a few degrees
for most areas. Winds generally northeast to east 5 to 10 mph. The
exceptions of course will be the Alaska Range Passes where winds
will be gusting to 45 mph Thursday then diminishing. Winds in the
Eastern Alaska Range pick back up Friday as Tanana Valley jet also
kicks in, so expect gusts to 35 mph. Temperatures will be fairly
steady the next couple days, with overnight lows dependent on
cloud cover.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Quite a bit of disagreement
in the extended solutions. Will primarily go with the WPC guidance
which is Ensemble based. That means a less active pattern, but
with strong Gulf of Alaska low there is potential for snow to move
into the Central and Eastern Interior as it wraps north around
it.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-
AKZ214.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ210-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240.

&&

SDB MAR 18