Brisk Wind Advisory 80, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
214 PM AKST Tue Mar 6 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Model guidance continues to display close agreement with regard to
track and speed of synoptic scale features with reasonable
concensus extending through Saturday. The longwave pattern remains
in agreement through the early part of next week, though
significant spread in shortwave and small scale features become
apparent by Saturday.

A 996 mb low east of Kamchatka will track eastward along the
southern Siberian coast and rapidly deepen to 970 mb before
passing south of St. Lawrence Island Thursday morning.
A strong occluded boundary emanating from this system will spawn
a surface low east of Kodiak which will rapidly deepen to 965 mb
by Friday morning as it tracks northeastward toward the Kenai
Peninsula. The Bering low will meanwhile move southeast, reaching
Bristol Bay early Friday.

An elongated trough reaching from the Kamchatka low across the
northern Bering Sea and into the Yukon Delta continues to
facilitate cloudy skies and light snow across the west coast south
of Point Hope and into the Yukon Delta and Kuskokwim Mountains.
Additional snow of 1 to 2 inches remains likely for much of the
west through tomorrow morning.

As the Kamchatka low presses eastward and deepens, a strong front
will dig across the central Being Sea, reaching St. Lawrence
Island and the Yukon Delta Wednesday afternoon. Increasing winds
and snow will be felt ahead of this front, with impacts reaching
into the western interior by Thursday morning. Low and mid level
southerly flow across the Alaska Range and eastern interior should
mitigate any significant impacts from the Tanana Valley to the
Yukon Flats as the front progresses eastward. This system will
carry significantly more moisture than its predecessors and will
generate large snow totals across the west coast, especially along
southern coastlines where upslope forcing will support heavy snow
in excess of 1 inch per hour at times.

Southerly gap flow across the Alaska Range is currently producing
south winds in excess of 45 mph and will continue to do so over
the next few hours. A lull in the winds is expected tonight
through early Wednesday followed again by an increase in winds
late Wednesday into Thursday as frontal passage occurs supported
by cyclogenesis over Kenai. Likewise, strong winds in the Brooks
Range are likely to persist over the next few days, and advisories
may be warranted for the Alaska Range late Wednesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ216.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ215.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210.

&&

COWMAN MAR 18