Brisk Wind Advisory 77, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
429 AM AKST Sat Mar 3 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Another active weather pattern setting up for northern Alaska.

Storm number one is currently developing over the western interior
and will bring snow into the central and eastern interior where
Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for zones 220, 222 and
224 including the Fairbanks area. In general storm total snowfall
of 2 to 4 inches is expected at valley locations and 4 to 6 inches
are expected in higher terrain especially to the east and north
of Fairbanks. Snow is expected to develop later this morning and
will continue into late this evening. Snow over the central and
eastern interior diminishes tonight as storm number two begins
impacting the west coast and western interior.

Storm number two moves east off of Kamchatka as a 986 mb low this
afternoon as the associated front stretching east and southeast
over the eastern Bering Sea and sweeps over St Lawrence Island
and the Bering Strait this evening and over the YK Delta and
Seward Peninsula by Sunday morning. Winter Storm Watches have been
issued for heavy snow for zones 211 and 212 as moisture laden
southwest flow will produce heavy snow in the Nulato Hills and
along the southern portions of the Seward Peninsula. The front
continues north and east and will produce heavy snow along the
south and west facing slopes of the Western Brooks Range as well
as south and west facing coasts of Kotzebue Sound. Additional
Winter Storm Watches for heavy snow have been issued for these
areas as well beginning Sunday afternoon. Snow along and ahead of
the front pushes into the western interior Monday with generally 2
to 4 inches of snow expected over the western and central
interior and 1 to 2 inches of snow expected over the western North
Slope.

Tuesday brings storm number 3 along the west coast, Seward
Peninsula and the Bering Strait with another round of strong
winds and heavy snow especially along south and west facing
slopes. At this point the low appear to make landfall over eastern
Norton Sound Tuesday evening and will push another round of snow
into the western and central interior Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday night. Latest models are backing off on the strength of
this storm as it moves into the central interior however another
round of snow is expected as this storm moves east into the Yukon
Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

Snow and strong winds will begin to impact the west coast, Bering
Strait and the Seward Peninsula Wednesday as storm number 4
pushes another strong front onshore. South and west facing slopes
will again bear the brunt of this storm however heavy snow will be
possible over a large area of western Alaska Thursday and into
Friday. The track of this storm and upper air support will likely
produce strong southerly winds as a strong chinook develops over
the central and eastern Alaska Range. The strong chinook will
likely limit snowfall over the central and eastern interior south
of Fairbanks at least initially. As the low moves east over the
central interior upper level winds will shift to the southwest
ending the drying chinook and will allow snow to sweep east into
the central and eastern interior.

The 00z model suite initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis and verified well against the 06z surface analysis.
Model spread is limited in the short range. Model track and
strength is remarkably good given the very progressive pattern.
Models begin to display more spread by the middle of next week but
overall present reasonable spread on feature strength and track.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ213-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ220-AKZ222-
AKZ224.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ217.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210.
&&

CCC MAR 18