Brisk Wind Advisory 50, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
642 AM AKST Wed Feb 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...
An active pattern continues for northern Alaska. The biggest
forecast challenge for this shift is a shortwave that continues to
bring snowfall as it moves from west to east across the forecast
area today. All of the models are in good agreement of the
overall synoptic pattern through Friday. The GFS and the ECMWF
have come into better agreement for the weekend with a upper level
ridge setting up over the Interior. Both the ECMWF and the GFS
have a fairly progressive pattern setting up early next week;
however, they differ on differ on the exact timing of the
different waves.

Central and Eastern Interior: A shortwave moving from west to east
across the Interior today into Thursday will bring another round
of snowfall to the Interior. The heaviest snowfall today will be
over the central Interior with the heaviest snowfall moving to the
east tonight. Zones 219 and 221 will see 4 to 7 inches of snow
through tomorrow morning. For Fairbanks, light snow is expected to
fall early today. The highest snowfall rates for Fairbanks are
expected to occur from this evening through the early morning
hours on Thursday. An additional 4 inches of snow is expected by
the time snowfall ends in Fairbanks; however, higher amounts are
expected elsewhere in the middle Tanana Valley (up to 6 inches).
A winter weather advisory remains in effect for zones 219, 220,
221, 222 and 224. Snowfall today will be somewhat limited in south
of Fairbanks thanks to some weak southerly downslope winds off of
the Alaska Range. Snowfall is expected to end in zones 219 and
221 by early Tuesday morning. Elsewhere, snowfall will taper off
from west to east during the day on Thursday. Some light snow will
linger in the far eastern Interior Thursday night. Clearing skies
are expected for Friday as a ridge builds in aloft. A weak front
moving through the Interior on Saturday will bring an increase in
clouds; however, at this time little to no precipitation is
expected.

West Coast and Western Interior: Conditions have generally
improved early this morning along the west coast and will continue
to improve today. As a result, I cancelled the inherited warnings
and advisories along the coast. Snow continues in the western
Interior with a bit of light freezing rain mixing with the snow in
the lower Yukon Valley. Snowfall in the western Interior will
come to an end this evening. An additional 2-5 inches of snow is
expected today in the western Interior with heaviest amounts in
zone 217 and the northern portion of zone 216. A weather front
will bring additional snow to the west coast Thursday night
(mainly to areas south of the Seward Peninsula. Strong southeast
to easterly winds will result in blowing snow developing along the
coast. Precipitation associated with this front will fizzle out
as it moves into the western Interior on Friday. Another system
will bring snowfall to areas north of Norton Sound Friday night
into Saturday. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are showing the
potential for locally heavy snowfall along the southern Seward
Peninsula Coast as well as in the preferred upslope regions along
the south slopes of the western Brooks Range as this system moves
through. The ECMWF and the GFS are both hinting at another system
moving through the west coast on Sunday; however, at this point
they differ on the timing and placement of the system.

North Slope and Brooks Range: Blowing snow will be the biggest
problem today along the Arctic Coast. The ongoing Blizzard Warning
in zone 201 looks to be in good shape with blizzard conditions
observed most of the night. The winds have picked up elsewhere
along the Arctic coast early this morning causing reductions in
visibility from Barrow to Nuiqsut. Winter Weather Advisories for
blowing snow have been issued with the morning package for zones
202 and 203. I also issued a Wind Chill Advisory for zone 204.
Wind chill values as cold a -50 have been observed this morning on
Barter Island. Winds along the coast should die down this
afternoon. A shortwave will spread snowfall from west to east
today and tonight across the North Slope and Brooks Range. 1-2
inches of snow is expected along the coast as this systems moves
across. Upslope flow on the north side of the eastern Brooks Range
will allow for locally higher snowfall totals with this system.
Current thinking is that 6-8 inches of snow will fall just north
of the range in the eastern Brooks Range as this system moves
through. I issued a Winter Storm Warning for zone 206 valid from
this afternoon through Thursday evening in anticipation of this
snowfall. A tight pressure gradient across the eastern Brooks
Range today will result in gusty southerly gap winds. Wind gusts
of around 40 mph are expected this morning through the passes. The
strong winds will also result in some reductions in visibility
due to blowing snow. Winds are expected to die down this afternoon
as the pressure gradient weakens. An area of low pressure will
strengthen over the upper Yukon Valley tomorrow resulting in
northerly gap winds developing in the eastern Brooks Range. Gusts
of 20 to 30 mph are expected. Winds are expected to die down again
Thursday night.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ204.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ206-AKZ208-AKZ216-AKZ217.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ201.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ215-AKZ219-AKZ220-
AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ224.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

FEB 18