Brisk Wind Advisory 43, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
137 AM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A transition to a more active pattern over northern Alaska will
begin over the weekend and will bring active weather next week.

Aloft at 500 mb the strong ridge which has been locked over
northern Alaska for the last week will weaken and retreat to the
east through the weekend. The ridge axis will be located along a
Wainwright to Cordova line Friday and along a Point Barrow to
Northway line Saturday and will move into the Yukon Sunday.

A strong shortwave will move northeast out of the southern Bering
Sea over Bristol Bay Saturday afternoon and will continue to move
north and east further weakening the upper level Ridge on Sunday.
The shortwave located along a Nunivak Island to Kodiak Island
Sunday Morning will move north and east to be along a Nome to
Fairbanks to Northway line Sunday evening. The shortwave will
continue to move north and east over the northeast Brooks Range
Monday Morning.

Another and stronger shortwave moves north and east out of
Bristol Bay Monday morning and will effectively flatten the
persistent upper level ridge and will bring a moist southwest flow
over much of western and central Alaska. Ahead of this shortwave
southerly flow aloft will produce gap winds and weak chinook
conditions through the Alaska Range passes and along the northern
foothills of the Alaska Range. The weak chinook conditions will
limit available moisture over the central interior to the east of
Manley Hot Springs as well as the eastern interior, however the
lower YK Delta, Seward Peninsula, western Brooks Range and
western interior will pick up light snow Saturday in the 1 to 2
inches range and more snow on Sunday in the 2 to 4 inch range
Sunday. Forecasted soundings continue to indicate the possibility
for mixed precipitation in the lower YK Delta both on Friday and
Saturday.

As the upper level wave pushes east Sunday night and Monday
morning the weak chinook over the central and eastern interior
will collapse and light snow will develop over these areas.

The 00z model suite initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis and verified well against the 06z surface analysis. Run
to run continuity remains good as does spread between model
families in the short range. The models continue to struggle with
breaking down the Omega Block and transitioning to a more in the
progressive pattern however spread in the mid range was better
today than in previous runs. Model spread in the long range is
considerable.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230.
&&

CCC FEB 18