Brisk Wind Advisory 37, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
124 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Very good agreement continues for the short term. Run to
run solutions remain consistent with the exception of the
extended periods which continue to struggle to find a reasonable
solution. 06/12Z surface solutions initialized well against the
06/18Z surface analysis with major features similar in location
and strength. Dry pattern continues over most of the forecast area
through the week. Will use a blend and lean on the SREF to
provide appropriate probabilities for the precipitation that is
moving up the West Coast and then over the Arctic Coast.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Omega Block is now in place as ridging
extends from a high in the Eastern Pacific over Yakutat to a 545
dam high over the Western Arctic Plain, then northwest over
Wrangel Island. Ridging also extends northeast over the Arctic. A
466 dam low remains north of Hudson Bay, and a 509 dam low is over
the southern tip of the Kamchatka Peninsula. A 524 dam low has
moved over St Matthew Island and will continue to move northwest
across Chukotka. A series of lows will swing north to the Central
Aleutians, then over the Western Bering Sea through Thursday and
dissipate. The high over the Arctic Plain will drift southeast
over the Upper Yukon Flats by Sunday morning as a long wave trough
moves to the West Coast. Several shortwaves will move up the
western flank of the ridge through Saturday. At 850 hpa...-10C
isotherm lies from Point Barrow to Atigun Pass to Livengood to
Beaver Creek YT. By Wednesday afternoon it will lie from
Demarcation Point along the crest of the Brooks Range to Atigun
Pass to Denali, then southeast as some warmer air is pulled north
over the west coast and Arctic around the ridge, and cold air is
pulled into the interior out of Canada. As the ridge continues to
retreat southeast, warm air continues to be pulled north, and the
cold air over the interior will retreat back into Canada.

Surface...Ridge of high pressure extends from Montana to the Yukon
Territory to a 1034 mb high 150 nm north of Prudhoe Bay, then west
along 73N to the Dateline, then southwest. 1038 mb high over the
Upper Tanana Valley persists with leeside troughing north of the
Alaska Range. As high over the Arctic moves east, Troughing pushes
east across the Arctic Plains and Coast, and the high over the
Upper Tanana Valley Builds to 1039 mb by Wednesday morning. A 1004
mb low in the northern Gulf of Alaska will weaken overnight and
merge with a low over British Columbia Wednesday night. A
weakening 995 mb low is over St Matthew Island and will move
northwest and dissipate over the Gulf of Anadyr tonight. The
associated front will continue to decay as it moves up the West
Coast and into the Chukchi Sea, then moves east across Arctic
Coast. The high in the Upper Tanana Valley will persist and build
to 1045 mb by Thursday morning, and to 1052 mb by Friday morning
as it drifts to the southern Yukon Territory. A 1036 mb high will
develop in the Upper Yukon Flats tonight and persist into Saturday
before merging with the high in the Yukon.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Mostly clear tonight, but some
high clouds will be moving around the ridge. There is also a band
of stratus just offshore of the Eastern Arctic Coast that may
drift onshore for a while, then drift back offshore as the flow
changes. Temperatures slightly warmer as trough builds east across
the area tonight, then lifts northeast Wednesday. Winds generally
less than 15 mph from the southeast becoming southwest then west
Wednesday. Strongest widns today are around Point Lay at 20 to 30
mph, but those will diminish this evening. Strongest winds
Wednesday will be around Kaktovik as the gradient gets pinched in
the area and west winds increase to around 40 mph. Expect some Gap
winds in the Eastern Brooks Range tonight as the trough builds
across the area and the gradient tightens up. Blowing snow is
expected to reduce visibility around Atigun Pass.

West Coast and Western Interior...Some lingering snow along the
coast, mainly south of the Bering Strait, but there will be some
flurries to the north overnight and Wednesday. Northeast and east
winds along the coast will continue to be gusty, but diminishing
from the south Wednesday. Another front will move up the coast
Friday night. Temperatures slightly warmer.

Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear continues. Winds in
higher elevations are from the northeast and gusting to around 25
mph. Tanana Valley Jet has kicked in and east winds around Delta
Junction are gusting to around 30 mph but gusts to almost 50 mph
were recorded earlier today. Expect the gusty winds to continue
through Wednesday. Gap winds kicked up earlier today, but have
diminished. Expect them to pick back up by Wednesday afternoon
with gusts around 45 mph. Winds in the valleys will continue to
be light and variable. Temperatures a couple degrees cooler as
cold air is pulled into the Eastern Interior out of Canada.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

Extended Forecast for Days 4 to 7...Extended solutions remain
confused as they try breaking down the blocking pattern to a more
progressive pattern. Will lean toward the less volatile Ensemble
solutions.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ213.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ240.

&&

SDB FEB 18