Brisk Wind Advisory 27, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
408 AM AKST Sat Jan 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
The long wave pattern consisting of of a high amplitude ridge over
the Bering Sea and deep troughs over the Sea of Okhotsk and the
Gulf of Alaska will build into an omega block with the high
centered over the Bering Strait Sun. This block is expected to
persist through Tue, then the ridge is expected to build east
over Northern Alaska in the second half of next week. Most of
Northern Alaska will clear under the ridge aloft. There will be
warming temperatures over hills and along the coasts next week as
warmer air aloft moves over Alaska under the ridge. Valley
temperatures in the Interior will remain cold however, as valleys
see radiational cooling under the clear skies.

A short wave trough that lies from McGrath to Old Crow will move
to Denali to Old Crow by 3pm Sat, and to Tok to Dawson by 3am Sun.
Stratus clouds and flurries associated with this trough will
retreat east through tonight as the ridge aloft builds in from the
west and caused subsidence and clearing of the clouds west of the
trough.

Surface...
A low pressure trough from Nuiqsut to MacKenzie Bay will  weaken
this evening. Low stratus, fog and flurries along this trough will
this this afternoon. West winds 10 mph over the eastern North
Slope will decrease this evening as the trough weakens.

A 1044 mb high centered north of Barrow with a ridge to the
eastern Bering Sea will move to Old Crow to St Lawrence Island
tonight then persist into Sun. This will keep weak north winds
through Alaska Range passes.

A low in Northeast Russia will move to 300 NM northwest of
Wrangel Island as a 1008 mb low by 3pm Sat, to 300 NM north of
Barrow as a 1017 mb low by 3pm Sun, and to 100 NM northeast of
Barter Island as a 1020 mb low by 3pm Mon. An occluded front
stretching south from this low into the Western Bering Sea will
move along the Dateline by 3pm Sat, just northwest of Barrow by
3am Sun, to Pt Thompson to Barrow then west by 3pm Sun, to
Demarcation Pt to Anaktuvuk Pass to Cape Lisburne by 3am Mon, and
to Inuvik to Eagle to Point Hope by 3pm Mon. Expect snow along the
front north of the Brooks Range with just flurries and mid levels
clouds with it south of the Brooks Range. Could see 1-3 inches of
snow Sun night and Mon from Atigun Pass East. Also expect SW
winds 15-25kt along the front over the North Slope.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 06Z there was a 1039 mb low 100 nm north of Prudhoe Bay that is
about 4mb deeper than any models indicate. As a result there is
slightly more wind along the Eastern Arctic Coast than models
indicate. Expect a surface trough to persist in this area through
tonight.

In other fields models initialize well and show similar
solutions through Mon. Start to see h500 short wave differences
after Mon, but long wave patterns remain fairly similar into next
weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ212-AKZ218-AKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

JB JAN 18