Brisk Wind Advisory 25, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
142 PM AKST Wed Jan 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Brutal cold continues in the western interior, and light snow and
mostly cloudy conditions continue in central and eastern Alaska.
Temperatures dropped below 50 below at multiple locations over the
western interior with Clear Creak near Hogatza reaching 57 below
this morning.

The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12z surface
analysis and verified well against the 18z surface analysis. Model
spread remains minimal in the short range and reasonable in the
mid range. Model spread continues to show significant differences
in the long range.

Aloft at 500 mb a 507 dam low over the central Brooks Range will
continue to drop south and west and will be located over the
eastern Seward Peninsula Thursday morning and over Bristol Bay
Thursday evening. The low continues to move south to be located
100 nm west of Kodiak Island Friday morning. A 567 dam ridge
builds rapidly northward over the eastern Bering Sea and will
anchor an Omega Block through the middle of next week. The ridge
axis will drifts slowly east and will be centered over the Bering
Strait beginning Sunday and continuing into next week.

As the upper level low moves to the south mid level ceilings and
light snow over the eastern and central interior will drift to the
west and will moderate the very cold temperatures that have been
locked over the area for the past several days. Temperatures will
be moderating into the 20s and 30s below by the weekend over the
western interior and temperatures in the teens and 20s below will
continue over the eastern and central interior.

Winds through the eastern Brooks Range foothills as well as the
Alaska Range passes will increase just enough to create advisory
level wind chill values beginning tonight and continuing into
Friday. Wind Chill Advisories have been issued for for the
foothills of the northeastern Brooks Range and for the passes
through the Alaska Range. Will need to monitor the Seward
Peninsula and the Bering Strait coasts for wind chill values
approaching advisory levels over the next couple days.

Long range models continue to offer significant spread between
model families and from run to run but on the whole below normal
temperatures appear to remain over northern Alaska through the
long range period.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

CCC JAN 18