Brisk Wind Advisory 176, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
526 AM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Synopsis...
A complex of surface lows and frontal boundaries will facilitate
wintery weather across much of the state over the next couple of
days. Weak to moderate Chinook conditions continue for the Alaska
Range, resulting in mixed freezing precipitation across the region
including parts of the Tanana Valley and Fortymile country.
Farther west, temperatures continue to slowly decrease and a
changeover to all snow is likely by Monday evening. Across the
North Slope, winds will begin to increase tonight as a front
moves north from the Brooks Range. Gusty winds and blowing snow
are likely, particularly east of Prudhoe Bay. A cooling trend is
expected to begin by mid week for large portions of northern
Alaska.

Aloft 500 mb...
The longwave pattern is becoming more progressive despite a
stubborn ridge axis across western Canada into northeastern
Alaska. This feature is moving eastward more slowly than
anticipated as the trough over the eastern Bering Sea and Gulf of
Alaska progresses more quickly east. The result is a higher
amplitude trough which continues to prolong Chinook conditions
across the Alaska Range. However by early Tuesday the ridge should
be displaced well into Canada, decreasing the southerly gradient
and allowing the longwave trough to consume much of the state.

Models...
Models are beginning to show better agreement in regards to
shortwave features with a 512 dam low at 500 mb centered over the
Y-K Delta late Tuesday. The longwave troughing pattern will
persist through late this week, but model concensus tends to fall
apart quickly beyond Friday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A front will push north across the Brooks Range, reaching the
Arctic coast this afternoon. Accumulations across the Brooks Range
and Beaufort coast east of Utqiagvik will be generally 1 to 3
inches through Tuesday. High pressure over the high Arctic will be
simultaneously reinforced as the front progresses north towards
the coast. Winds will begin to increase along the Beaufort Coast
this morning, particularly east of Prudhoe Bay where winds will
gust to 40 mph by early afternoon. Snowfall associated with the
front will reach the coast around this time, resulting in blowing
snow and visibility below one half mile. A winter weather advisory
has been issued accordingly for the eastern Arctic coast. The
front will stall out along or just offshore from the coast, so on
and off snow showers and low stratus will be likely throughout
the week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A 996 mb low continues to churn in the Norton Sound and will
meander around this area before dropping southeast into the Gulf
of Alaska Wednesday. Snow will persist across the Y-K Delta and
Seward Peninsula, with rain mixing in across the immediate
coastline from Cape Romanzof south. Snow showers will persist
across the western Interior, particularly along a stalled frontal
boundary across the western Brooks Range. Snowfall of 1 to 3
inches can be expected through Tuesday for the immediate coast
south of Kivalina as well as the western Brooks Range. Lesser
amounts up to an inch are likely across the lower Yukon Valley.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Snow is expected to develop along a stalled occluded boundary
spanning McGrath to Tanana to Arctic Village this afternoon. A few
areas of freezing rain will linger into the late morning along the
immediate northern fringe of the Alaska Range. Winter Weather
Advisories are in effect for much of the region, with freezing
rain being the main culprit for the Alaksa Range and Tanana
Valley, and snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches farther north along
the aforementioned boundary. A brief resurgence of the Chinook is
expected this afternoon before quickly diminishing into Tuesday.
Widespread snow showers will linger through the end of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ204-AKZ213-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-
AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

Gale Warning for PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240.
&&

COWMAN NOV 18