Brisk Wind Advisory 16, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
415 AM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Good agreement in the short term. 10/00Z Solutions
initialized well at the surface, with only minor differences when
compared to the 10/06Z surface analysis. Will blend with the
current database for most elements, making minor adjustments in
the near term.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...538 dam high 150 east of Wrangel Island this
morning and will slowly rotate northeast to 300 nm northwest of
Point Barrow by Thursday morning, and 400 nm north of Point Barrow
by Friday morning. 522 dam low has moved over the Eastern Brooks
Range and will move over Tanana by Thursday morning at 518 dam,
then west over the Gulf of Anadyr by Friday morning at 512 dam. A
trough will persist over the Brooks Range. Ridging will persist
over the northeast Pacific and Gulf of Alaska. A 511 dam low 150
nm west of St Matthew Island with a shortwave extending east to
Cape Romanzof will move northwest into Siberia and dissipate. A
502 dam low in the central Bering Sea will merge with a 495 dam
low that will move south of the central Aleutians by Thursday
morning and merge with a developing 495 dam low that will be 150
nm south of Nikolski. At 850 hpa...Temperatures relatively flat
the next couple days, with only some weak warming in the Upper
Yukon Flats, Fortymile Country, and along the AlCan border.

Surface...Broad area of low pressure remains over the Bering Sea
and the southwest mainland. 1038 mb high remains over the Yukon
Territory with ridging extending north over the eastern Beaufort
Sea and west along 75N in the Arctic, west over the south slopes
of the Eastern Brooks Range, and west over the Copper River Basin
with a 1023 mb high near Glennallen. Ridging over Canada will
weaken the next couple days as the low pressure over the Bering
Sea pushes north as a 958 mb low moves to 150 nm south of Nikolski
Thursday morning, and 300 nm south of Kodiak Island by Friday
morning. A 1023 mb high will develop over the Central Arctic
Thursday morning, and move to the northeast Arctic by Friday
morning at 1028 mb. Trough over the Arctic Coast this morning will
persist into Saturday. Tight pressure gradient across the Eastern
Brooks Range will weak this morning as ridging to the south
weakens, then tighten back up Friday night with gusty gap winds
returning. Tanana Valley Jet will weaken a bit today as the
leeside troughing north of the Alaska Range weakens a bit today,
then strengthen Thursday night with the gradient tightening back
up. Gradient also remains relatively tight over the highlands to
the north and east of Fairbanks. Tight pressure gradient over the
Nulato Hills will persist.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Still getting some gusty winds in
the Eastern Brooks Range this morning as the GOES IR at 10/1145Z
indicates, but they will be diminishing this morning. High moving
to the northeast Arctic Friday will start pinching the trough
over the area, and strong winds will develop on the Eastern Arctic
Coast, with strong gap wind developing in the Eastern Brooks
Range as the high pressure over the south slopes strengthens.
Expect some blowing snow issues east of Nuiqsut, and in the
eastern Brooks Range, when the winds do kick up. Mostly clear
over most of the area today, but NPP VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour
Microphysics RGB at 10/1159Z shows stratus around a low level
circulation north of Barrow that extends from Nuiqsut to Point
Lay and northwest over the Arctic. GOES MVFR/IFR Probability
Product at 10/1130Z indicates MVFR clouds over the same area, and
observations have the stratus as low as 300 ft.

West Coast and Western Interior...Mostly Clear, some gusty winds
to 40 mph, mainly in the Nulato Hills, channeled areas, and
downslope off the Central Brooks Range north of Ambler.
Temperatures trending slightly cooler through Friday morning.

Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear with some high clouds
mainly east of Fairbanks moving south across the area today. A
upper level low over the Brooks Range will move west over the
Yukon River Basin, and this may help develops some clouds north of
Fairbanks. Winds continue to be strong over the higher terrain,
but will settle down some today, so expect some cooler daytime
temperatures with the lighter winds. The winds in the hills will
increase tonight with gusts around 40 mph expected over the Ray
and White Mountains, and the Upper Chena and Upper Salcha
Basins. The Tanana Valley Jet will settle down today as well, then
come back stronger Thursday through Saturday with gusts around 50
mph. Cold air over the area will start retreating back into
Canada, but with the winds diminishing today, expect as cold or
colder temperatures today and tonight for most areas.

&&

Coastal Hazards for days 3 and 4...None.

&&

Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Flow becoming southwest over
the area and that will allow the ridging over Canada to build back
in to the interior. No precipitation expected. Cooler temperatures
in the Eastern Interior, and gusty winds returning to the uplands
and Upper Tanana Valley. A blend of the solutions is likely the
best place to start.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Advisory for AKZ217-AKZ223.

Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ223.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

&&

SDB JAN 18