Brisk Wind Advisory 124, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
211 PM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

.DISCUSSION...

A pretty quiet weather pattern continues for much of Northern
Alaska. This will remain the case for the next few days. Winds
along the North Slope and West Coast will be the main issue. No
major changes with the forecast thought process from previous
forecasts, so other than winds most discussion is about the finer
points of the weather. Taking a middle of the road approach to
resolving the models, as three main models we use (GFS/NAM/ECMWF)
diverge by Friday when the next potential for any weather presents
itself. Models diverge on their placement of an upper level low
on the West Coast Friday and the ECMWF is trending drier and
warmer for possible weather in the interior on Friday, so will
have to keep an eye on both of those issues.

Aloft...An upper level low continues to work its way Northwest
across the state from the Yukon flats. This will be the system
that tightens a northeast gradient across the north slope and
Brooks Range, which is detailed below. Otherwise, things are
pretty quiet as this low is sandwiched between two high pressure
systems...one to its East over the Yukon and Eastern Interior and
the other to its Northwest pushing in from Russia.

Central and Eastern Interior...Nice spring weather will continue
until at least Friday. Gusty winds along summits will diminish
this evening into tonight. Winds will first subside this evening
along the Elliott Highway in zone 221, then overnight along summits
of the Dalton Highway in zones 219 and 220 so have extended both
until 6AM local time tomorrow. Winds are also gusting to advisory
level in zone 218 so have issued a wind advisory for that zone,
also until 6AM tomorrow. All locations are for gusts to 40 mph,
based on observations.

Seasonal temps will persist in the afternoon, with lows remaining
below freezing overnight. Friday there is a chance of precip for
the interior, with the GFS and NAM in agreement there. The GFS and
NAM bring in colder air at the 850mb level towards the interior,
but keep the coldest air north of the Brooks Range. The ECMWF
prefers a different solution of warmer temperatures and no
precipitation, so went with a consensus of the three. Precip type
will be tricky with diurnal temperature swings crossing the
freezing line, but expecting a rain/snow mix right now. This will
bring some of the first liquid precipitation of the spring to the
Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...Quiet other than winds. Easterly
winds around Unalakleet will be strong today into tonight due to
local effects of funneling down the river valley to their east.
Expecting a gradient to form inducing strong northeast winds
Thursday morning continuing into Saturday from Kotzebue Sound
through the Western Seward Peninsula. They may be strong enough
to prompt wind advisory issuance, but will make that determination
over the next day or so.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Strong winds will be the only
significant issue. There will be a brief lull in winds tomorrow
before winds begin to increase again on Thursday. Winds will be
moving in a different direction this time around, with a low off
the Eastern Arctic coast inducing winds out of the west. The
northeast gradient causing strong winds along the West Coast will
do the same for the Western Arctic Coast and the Northwest Brooks
Range. Winds out of the north will also cause gap winds in places
like Atigun and Anaktuvuk passes. As with the West Coast, there
may be advisory level wind speeds but will hone in on any hazard
issuance over the next day or so.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

BJB APR 18