Brisk Wind Advisory 101, NWS Fairbanks, AK

106 
FZAK52 PAFG 202324
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
324 PM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-211430-
324 PM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A low in the Central Interior of Alaska will move east tonight. A
low in the southwest Bering Sea will move to near Anadyr Wed 
afternoon. A low developing in the central Bering Sea Wed night 
will deepen and move to Cape Navarin as a 963 mb low by 4pm Thu,
then slowly weaken on Fri. 

$$

PKZ200-211430-
Norton Sound-
324 PM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt becoming E. Snow. Freezing fog. VSBY 1 NM
or less. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. Snow. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.THU...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.FRI...SE winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-211430-
Dall Point to Wales-
324 PM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Snow. Freezing fog. 
.WED...S winds increasing to 35 kt. Snow. Blowing snow. Rain. Fog. 
VSBY 1 NM or less.
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 45 kt. Snow. Rain. Fog. VSBY 1 NM or less.
.THU...SE winds 50 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...S winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-211430-
Kotzebue Sound-
324 PM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 10 kt becoming E. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...SE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-211430-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
324 PM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 10 kt becoming E. 
.WED...SE winds increasing to 35 kt. Snow. Blowing snow. 
VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Snow. Blowing snow. Rain. Fog.
VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.THU...SE winds 35 kt. Snow. Blowing snow. Rain. Fog.
VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. VSBY
1 NM or less. 
.FRI...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

Mar 18

407 
FZAK52 PAFG 211223
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
423 AM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-220230-
423 AM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A low entering the central Bering Sea today will deepen and
produce strong winds and poor weather for the Bering and Chuckchi
Seas through Thursday. Strongest winds are expected to be from St
Lawrence Island through the Bering Strait to Cape Lisburne. The
low will then weaken on Friday.

$$

PKZ200-220230-
Norton Sound-
423 AM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

.TODAY...SE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. VSBY
1 NM or less. 
.THU...SE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.FRI...SE winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-220230-
Dall Point to Wales-
423 AM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 35 kt. Snow and freezing rain. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Snow and freezing rain. 
.THU...SE winds 50 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-220230-
Kotzebue Sound-
423 AM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. VSBY
1 NM or less. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...SE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-220230-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
423 AM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt. Blowing snow and
freezing fog. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.THU...SE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. VSBY 1 NM
or less. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. VSBY
1 NM or less. 
.FRI...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

Mar 18

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
441 PM AKDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
A progressive southwest flow with several strong short waves
moving through it is now over northern Alaska. This flow will turn
northwest as a ridge builds over Western Alaska Tue and Wed, with
a blocking ridge developing by Thu and then remaining into the
weekend. This means that warmer and wetter than normal conditions
now over most of Northern AK will become drier and cooler than
normal by Wed under the ridge aloft, then remain cooler than
normal through the weekend.

Short waves have surface fronts/low pressure systems associated
with them and the weather with each will be addressed under the
surface sections below.

Surface...
A 1010 mb low near Point Lay will move to near Wainwright as a
1031 mb low by 4pm Tue, to 300 nm Northeast of Barter Island as a
1033 mb low by 4am Wed, then continue east. An occluded front from
this low to Deadhorse to Northway will move to Barrow to Inuvik to
Mayo by 4am Tue. Snow with 1-2 inches accumulation accompany this
front. Blowing snow, and west winds gusting 30-40 mph are
occuring with this front over the southeast Interior. Winds, snow
and blowing snow will tapering off by midnight tonight.

A surface trough extending from the Point Lay low to the Bering
Strait will move to Barrow to Nome by 4pm Tue, and to Barter
Island to Denali by 4am Wed, and to Inuvik to Tok by 4pm Wed.
Expect light snow showers or flurries with the trough, and
clearing west of the trough.

A 1010 mb low near St Lawrence Island will move to Kaltag as a
1019 mb low by 4am Tue and to near Talkeetna as a 1026 mb low by
4pm Tue. Several bands of snow showers extend southeast from this
low and can expect 2-4 inches of snow in the area near the track
of the low. Southwest winds 25 kt are occuring in the southeast
quadrant of this low with Gale force winds near the Yukon Delta.
Winds will turn NW 15-25 kt west of the low. Winds will decrease
as the low moves inland early Tue.

A strong low developing in western Bering Sea Wed will move to
the northern Bering Sea Thu. A warm front associated with this
will move into the Central Bering Sea by 4am Wed, to the Chukotsk
Peninsula to the Yukon Delta by 4pm Wed, then spreading north Wed
night. This will bring snow, blowing snow, and a chance of rain
with the front to the West Coast Wed into Thu. At this time still
much uncertainty as to precipitation amounts, type, and
probability.

An associated cold front will move into the Eastern Bering Thu
bringing SE gales to the eastern Bering.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models similar solutions through 4pm Wed at h500, h700, h850,
pcpn. On Wed night and Thu the ECMF keeps the precip further west
of Nome than the GFS and NAM. At this point, Wed night and Thu is
worth a chance of precip at Nome, but great uncertainty about
amounts so keeping amounts lower than GFS/NAM at Nome Wed night
and Thu. At the surface, the ECMF verifies much better than the
NAM/GFS at 18Z today on the low just southwest of Gambell. On
other features the models initialize similarly. The ECMF solution
which keeps this feature deeper than other models through tonight
is best. This means that winds along the west coast will be a bit
stronger than NAM/GFS would indicate, and precip may be stronger
as well.

All models agree on block setting up Thu, but then diverge from
each other. I would lean closer to the ECMF solution of a REX
type block with the high over the Arctic and Low moving east
across northern AK over the weekend, then the ridge rebuilding
over N AK next week. This means generally clear and cold
conditions over the Interior and Arctic Coast will develop late
this week and continue into next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...SE Gales Thu but expect no
issues in zone 213 due to ice cover extending south of St Lawrence
Island.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ219-AKZ220-
AKZ224-AKZ226.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200.
&&

JB MAR 18