Storm Warning 175, NWS Anchorage, AK

182 
FZAK52 PAFC 290807 AAA
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1107 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018

Updated zone 150

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-292115-
1107 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 960 mb low 400 nm southwest of Adak moves over Shemya Sat 
afternoon at 950 mb. The low then moves 200 nm southwest of Adak at
960 mb Sun afternoon. A second low forms 300 nm south of Dutch
Harbor Sat afternoon at 977 mb and moves 200 nm north of Dutch
Harbor at 963 mb Sat night and then moves inland Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-292115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
1107 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt with gusts to 50 kt out of bays and
passes. Winds decreasing to 25 kt towards morning. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft.  Rain. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 45 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft building to 22 ft after midnight. Rain. 
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-292115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
1107 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt, Seas 10 ft building to 17 ft in the
afternoon. From the Shumagin Islands E, S wind 20 kt becoming SE
30 kt in the afternoon, Seas 5 ft building to 10 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight, Seas
26 ft. From the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft 
building to 25 ft after midnight. Rain. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-292115-
Bristol Bay-
1107 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. Snow with rain. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-292115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
1107 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. From
Port  Moller E, NW wind 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 9  ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt except SE 25 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
8 ft.  Freezing spray. Snow and rain. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-292115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
1107 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Snow. 
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft. Rain showers and snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SW 35 kt after midnight. Seas
12  ft building to 23 ft after midnight. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ171-292115-
Unalaska Bay-
1107 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Snow. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers and snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain showers. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-292115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
1107 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft building to 12 ft after midnight. Snow and rain. 
.SAT...S wind 40 kt decreasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19  ft. Rain and snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight. Seas
28  ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ173-292115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
1107 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft building to 16 ft after midnight. Snow and rain. 
.SAT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft subsiding to 10 ft in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ174-292115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
1107 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 19 ft after
midnight. Rain and snow. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 27 ft. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-292115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
1107 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SAT...S wind 35 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-292115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
1107 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft building to 30 ft after
midnight. Rain and snow. 
.SAT...S wind 35 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
31 ft subsiding to 25 ft in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-292115-
Adak to Kiska-
1107 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 60 kt becoming SW after midnight. Bering side,
 seas 28 ft. Pacific side, seas 26 ft building to 37 ft after 
midnight. Rain and snow. 
.SAT...S wind 55 kt diminishing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Bering
side, seas 31 ft. Pacific side, seas 39 ft subsiding to 32 ft in
the afternoon. Snow showers. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
20 ft Bering side...27 ft Pacific side. Snow showers and rain
showers. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-292115-
Kiska to Attu-
1107 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 55 kt increasing to 65 kt after midnight. Seas
33 ft. Snow and rain. 
.SAT...NE wind 65 kt except S 55 kt E of Shemya. Seas 37 ft. Rain
 showers and snow showers. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. From Shemya W, NE wind 55 kt
diminishing to 45 kt after midnight. Bering side, seas 33 ft
subsiding to 27 ft after midnight. Pacific side, seas 26 ft. Rain
showers and snow  showers. 
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-292115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
1107 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...E wind 45 kt decreasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14  ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning. Snow and rain. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 15 ft
building to 24 ft after midnight. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 32 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-292115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
1107 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt decreasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray near the ice edge. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt becoming E 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 3 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Heavy 
freezing spray near the ice edge. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft. Snow
with rain. 
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-292115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
1107 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Snow. 
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. 
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ185-292115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
1107 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, N wind 20 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 14 ft in the
afternoon.  Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Snow. 
.SUN...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

601 
FZAK52 PAFC 291305
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
405 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-300200-
405 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 944 mb low 150 nm east of Shemya will move to 110 nm southeast
of Shemya at 947 mb Sun morning. The low will then move near Adak 
at 960 mb Mon morning. Another 973 mb North Pacific low will move
to 140 nm west of Dutch Harbor then it will move to 40 nm north 
of St Paul at 956 mb Sun morning. the low will then move into the 
northern Bering Sun afternoon. A third 961 mb North Pacific low 
will move over Cold Bay Sun afternoon then it will move inland 
over Bethel Mon morning at 964 mb.

$$

PKZ150-300200-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
405 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt with gusts to 45 kt out of bays and passes in
the morning. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 21 ft after midnight.
Rain and snow.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 45 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 33 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-300200-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
405 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon, Seas 10
ft building to 19 ft in the afternoon. From the Shumagin Islands E, 
S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon, Seas 8 ft. Rain and 
snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight, Seas
28 ft. From the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 45 kt becoming SW 25 kt
after midnight, Seas 18 ft building to 25 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 22 ft 
building to 30 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 34 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-300200-
Bristol Bay-
405 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray near the ice edge
in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray near the ice edge. Snow.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 55 kt. Seas in ice free waters 16 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-300200-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
405 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. From 
Port Moller E, E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. Snow and afternoon rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt becoming NE. From Port Moller E, S wind 25 kt
becoming E 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-300200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
405 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ171-300200-
Unalaska Bay-
405 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-300200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
405 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft building to 25 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 50 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 29 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 21 ft.
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ173-300200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
405 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ174-300200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
405 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-300200-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
405 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-300200-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
405 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-300200-
Adak to Kiska-
405 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt diminishing to 50 kt in 
the afternoon. Bering side, seas 37 ft subsiding to 29 ft in the 
afternoon. Pacific side, seas 42 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Bering
side, seas 22 ft. Pacific side, seas 29 ft subsiding to 23 ft
after midnight. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft Bering side... 24 ft Pacific
side. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-300200-
Kiska to Attu-
405 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 65 kt with gusts to 75 kt from Shemya west. S wind 
45 kt east of Shemya. Seas 41 ft Bering side...31 ft Pacific side. 
Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt with gusts to 65 kt in the evening. Seas 34 
ft Bering side...27 ft Pacific side. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 30 ft Bering side... 24 ft Pacific
side. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-300200-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
405 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the
morning. Snow. Rain from Saint George south in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 23 ft.
Snow and rain.
.SUN...SW wind 45 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 23 ft subsiding to 17 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-300200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
405 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt becoming E 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 2 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray near the ice edge. Snow.
.SUN...S wind 45 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-300200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
405 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Snow.
.SUN...E wind 50 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt.
.WED...W wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-300200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
405 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 17 ft in the
afternoon. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 55 kt. Seas 28 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 55 kt diminishing to 45 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 29 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

809 
FZAK52 PAFC 300127
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
427 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-301430-
427 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 943 mb complex low 60 nm southeast of Shemya moves 150 nm
southwest of Adak at 951 mb Sun afternoon and then moves 150 nm
south of Saint Paul at 962 mb Mon afternoon. A second low 130 nm
west of Dutch Harbor Sat afternoon moves 130 nm northwest of Saint
Paul at 960 mb Sat night and then exits the Bering to the north 
Mon morning. A third 964 mb low 190 nm southeast of Dutch Harbor Sun
morning moves 160 nm east of Saint Paul at 953 mb Sun evening and
then moves inland Sun night. A fourth 979 mb low forms 300 nm
southeast of Sand Point Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-301430-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
427 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 21 ft after
midnight. Rain and snow.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 25 ft.
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 55 kt. W of Chirikof Island, SW wind 65 kt
diminishing to 50 kt by midnight. Seas 35 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-301430-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
427 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight, Seas
28 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
27 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 65 kt diminishing to 45 kt by midnight. W of 
Sand Point, SW wind 50 kt diminishing to SW 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 37 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ160-301430-
Bristol Bay-
427 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Heavy
freezing spray near the ice edge before midnight. Snow and rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt becoming E 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas in ice
free waters 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 50 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 11 ft building to 16 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-301430-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
427 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming SW 35 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller E, SE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. From Port Moller E, S wind 25 kt becoming E
45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. From Port Moller E, S wind 30 kt
becoming SW 50 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft building to 18 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-301430-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
427 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight. Seas 15 
ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-301430-
Unalaska Bay-
427 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt by midnight. Seas 5 ft. 
Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-301430-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
427 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 29
ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt becoming NW 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 22
ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-301430-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
427 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-301430-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
427 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 40 kt after midnight. Seas
27 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-301430-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
427 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-301430-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
427 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-301430-
Adak to Kiska-
427 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Bering side, seas 24 ft subsiding to 18
ft after midnight. Pacific side, seas 30 ft. Snow showers and rain.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft Bering 
side...26 ft Pacific side. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ178-301430-
Kiska to Attu-
427 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. From
Shemya W, N wind 50 kt. Seas 37 ft Bering side...27 ft Pacific
side. Rain and snow.
.SUN...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 34 ft Bering side...26 ft Pacific side. 
Rain showers and snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. Snow showers.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-301430-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
427 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 20 ft. Rain 
with snow.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-301430-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
427 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray near the ice edge before midnight. Snow and rain.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas in ice 
free waters 13 ft. Rain with snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas in ice
free waters 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-301430-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
427 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Snow.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon.  Blowing
snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt.
.WED...W wind 25 kt.
.THU...E wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ185-301430-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
427 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 50 kt except SE 30 kt east of Saint Matthew Island. Seas
28 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 35 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 22 ft. Heavy freezing spray N of Saint 
Matthew Island.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
630 AM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The first synoptic feature to note is a negatively tilted long
wave trough that extends over the central and eastern Bering. An
increased band of absolute vorticity runs the length of the trough
axis. The increased vorticity coincides with a northwesterly
oriented arm of the jet where wind speeds are reaching 220 kts.
Cold, polar air is wrapping around the trough and advecting over
the entire Bering. This cold air is creating a polar front
positioned over the AK-Pen with an associated surface low just
south of the AK-Pen. The influx of cold air near the surface and
the warm air aloft is creating an inversion layer over the western
mainland. This has aided in fog development throughout the area.

A second and more intense front is moving over the western
Aleutians, which marks the start of the next storm in the Bering.
This front is associated with a deepening North Pacific low that
is advancing northward towards the chain. Scatterometer wind
detection has already observed storm force winds and a few
hurricane force gusts just offshore of the western most islands.

In the east, a short wave runs the length of the northern Gulf
coast. The deformation zone that brought snow Thursday afternoon
to Southcentral continues to to propagate eastward leaving much
of Southcentral dry. Similar to the western side of the state, an
inversion layer, which can be seen in the Anchorage morning
sounding, is creating fog through Cook Inlet, the western Kenai
Peninsula and through the Susitna Valley.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Synoptically, models are in decent agreement while when it comes
to the more important details, there is a lot of discrepancy. They
are handling the low south of the AK-Pen well through Saturday
when it moves into the Gulf and dissipates. However, with regards
to the next intensifying low, models differ greatly. In the
initial stages, models are fairly consistent with the low
location as it moves towards Shemya, but the strength of the low
still remains vastly different. Through Saturday however, the
solution is fairly consistent both in location and strength. In
general, the GFS is the strongest of these solutions producing the
highest wind speeds while the EC is the weakest. This pattern
continues through the next few days. A second low system forms
along the frontal edge of the initial storm force low Saturday
night. The models diverge even More so with the GFS taking a much
stronger route than any of the other solutions. Due to the
differences between all of the solutions regarding this system, a
blend was used of all of the models.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The low stratus deck currently over the Anchorage area
should help lower the chances of surface fog forming this morning,
however there is still of chance of visibilities dropping more as
well. A frontal wave lifting north late afternoon through this
evening will bring the chance of some light snow, however this
should primarily be west of the area with conditions likely
remaining VFR at PANC. A second trough with strong cold advection
moving through after midnight will bring a more widespread cover of
snow to the area, dropping conditions to IFR or lower at times
through Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2/Today
through Saturday night)...

As one storm exits across the Copper River Basin this morning,
another is beginning to impact Kodiak Island and the western Gulf.
Behind the first one, there are some lingering areas of light snow
across the southeastern Copper River Basin as well as eastern
Prince William Sound. Further west, low clouds with some embedded
fog extend across much of the Cook Inlet to Susitna Valley corridor.
Expect improvement later today as clouds and precipitation move in
from the south.

The next system consists of a strong upper level short-wave trough
over the eastern Bering Sea, a low level Arctic front just ahead
of the trough, a weak low lifting northward along the Alaska
Peninsula, and a separate weaker short-wave tracking northward
into the western Gulf. The interaction of all of these is quite
complicated and results in a challenging precipitation forecast
for Southcentral this afternoon through this evening. Precipitation
with the first short-wave will largely be of a showery character,
with steadier and locally heavier precipitation right ahead of
the short-wave. With cold air in place, expect precipitation type
to be all snow except for Kodiak island and the immediate coastline.
Snow showers will spread northward this afternoon and evening to
all but the Copper River Basin. A band of heavier snow will then
develop overnight as the much stronger trough becomes negatively
tilted and approaches Southcentral Alaska. It will move relatively
quickly, so storm total snow amounts through Saturday will
generally be on the light side.

Strong cold air advection across the Alaska Peninsula and into the
western Gulf will produce gale to storm force winds, with very
strong gusts through gaps in the terrain. Winds coming through
Kamishak Bay will bend northeastward to Kachemak Bay and Homer.
With cold advection kicking in there before the upper trough
passes, this looks like a great scenario for the combination of
falling snow and strong winds in Homer and vicinity. Thus, have
issued a Blizzard Warning for overnight tonight. With such strong
cold advection, would also expect low level showers to persist
behind the trough, so snow and blowing snow will remain a threat
through at least midday Saturday.

This system will exit to the north by late Saturday while a
frontal boundary originating from a deep Aleutian Low approaches
the western Gulf and Kodiak Island. With multiple systems forming
out over the bering Sea, there is quite a bit of uncertainty in
the details of this front. What we do know is that the shift in
pattern will lead to a warm-up in temperatures as we head to early
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Sunday)...

A very busy weather pattern has begun. An area of low pressure has
crossed the Alaska Peninsula and is currently near Pilot Point.
As the precipitation associated with the low meets up with an
Arctic front pushing inland across the Kuskokwim Delta, snowfall
rates are expected to increase from Dillingham northward today as
the two systems combine forces. Accumulations of 6 to 11 inches
are expected across this area. The low will dissipate this evening
as the Arctic front continues to slide eastward across Bristol
Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. This will lead to diminishing
snowfall rates as the entire area of snow moves east into Iliamna.
The snow will dissipate altogether later tonight. Behind the
Arctic front, as the name implies, very cold air will set up shop
for a brief time across Southwest Alaska, as temperatures once
again fall into the teens below zero tonight and on Saturday
night. The front should have some success, especially across
inland areas, with clearing out the clouds as the winds diminish
behind the front. Lots of sunshine is expected away from the coast
for at least the first half of the day on Saturday.

A strong front originating from a strong low over the Bering is
expected to begin making its presence known over Southwest Alaska
by Saturday afternoon in the form of increasing cloud cover
starting at the coast and moving inland Saturday evening. Snow
will begin at the coast on Saturday night, and will spread inland
through the overnight hours. Meanwhile, the strong front will also
feature strong winds with it, which will have some success moving
inland, especially across the Kuskokwim Delta. The combination of
the snow and the wind are expected to make for near-blizzard
conditions across the area Saturday night into Sunday. This front
will also bring warmer air along with it, so that will end the
threat of below zero temperatures for all of Southwest Alaska for
the time being. The areas that are most likely to have impactful
weather will be the Western Capes of Bristol Bay west of
Dillingham, and the Kuskokwim Delta. The Western Capes will likely
see winds of 35 to 50 mph, while winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher
gusts are expected in the Kuskokwim Delta. All the while, the
moisture-laden front may at times produce moderate to heavy snow
in those same areas. The models are still having a very hard time
with this system, and as such, pin-pointing further where
blizzard conditions can be expected is not prudent at this time.
This is largely in relation to where a new low forms, where it
tracks, and how strong it will be as it moves off the coast of
Southwest Alaska. The front pushing inland across Southwest Alaska
will lead to another widespread snowfall for most areas away from
the Alaska Range, though the most snow will be in the
aforementioned areas. Meanwhile, strong downsloping and warming
will lead to some above freezing temperatures and possible rain
along the Alaska Range through Iliamna and King Salmon. The warm
temperatures look to spread to large portions of Bristol Bay by
Sunday night as yet another strong low with even warmer air looks
to affect the area. Some areas of Bristol Bay may only have a
brief pause in the precipitation between the systems Sunday
morning and Sunday night. Stay tuned.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Sunday)...

A strong front currently over the western and central Aleutians
is currently causing storm force winds across the islands and
their adjacent waters this morning. This front is just the start
of a period of very active weather for that area. The front will
slow to a crawl and slowly weaken during the day today, so many
of the same areas seeing strong winds now will continue to do so
throughout the day. A secondary low is approaching the front from
out of the Pacific. This low will rapidly intensify as it merges
with the front late this afternoon and this evening. Thus, the
winds will reintensify across the western Aleutians tonight, as
they turn more into the northeasterly direction. Hurricane force
winds associated with the low are expected both north and south of
the western Aleutians, and as such, Hurricane Force Wind Warnings
have been issued for the western Aleutians and the central
Aleutians west of Adak. The strong winds affecting Shemya will be
on the north side of the low. On the south side of the low,
strong cold advection and the strong winds associated with the
low itself will cause even stronger gusts south of the islands
out of the southwest. With a long Pacific fetch included, waves on
the Pacific side of the islands may approach 50 feet with the
strongest winds in the portion of the low south of the center
known as a "sting jet", which is known to be associated with very
strong winds. Adak proper looks to be right on the
leading edge of the sting jet. As such a small eastward shift in
the storm track may bring hurricane force winds to Adak itself,
but there is a lot of uncertainty if that will happen. Thus, the
High Wind Watch has been maintained for now until there is more
certainty whether Adak will be impacted with the strongest winds.
The low will stall out with the center near the islands through
the day on Saturday, slowly weakening with time through the day on
Sunday.

Heavy snow is possible with the leading front ahead of the low
over the western Aleutians as it tracks eastward across the
Bering. Cold air is firmly in place across the Pribilofs, and as
the front approaches and it begins snowing, the strong winds and
snow will combine to result in periods of reduced visibility as
the front goes through. A Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow
has been issued for the Pribilofs for this. Fortunately this
looks to be a relatively short time when the worst conditions are
expected across the islands since the front will continue its
march eastward towards Southwest Alaska.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

A wet pattern is on tap for this forecast period. The forecast
period commences New Year's Eve day with a broad trough over the
Bering and Aleutians and a high amplitude ridge from the Eastern
Pacific to the Yukon Territory. Meanwhile at the surface at 12z
Monday, both the GFS and the ECMWF have a potent low west of Adak
and another low over SW AK/Bristol Bay with cyclonic flow
dominating the entire Bering and much of the North Pacific. At 500
mb at 12z Monday, both the GFS and the ECMWF have closed lows in
support of the surface lows with an amalgamation of embedded
shortwaves aloft.  Complicating matters, the GFS has an
additional closed low at 500 mb north of St Paul whereas the ECMWF
has a minor ridge axis. While the timing of the precipitation
shield may vary as it moves from west to east, what's noteworthy
is that warm air will be advected into the Aleutians, Southwest
Alaska and portions of Southcentral. By Tuesday, a new surface
low will spin up south of the AKPEN and this storm is headed to
the Gulf Of Alaska. By 00z Wednesday the GFS and the ECMWF progs
this new surface low 200 NM apart from the other at opposite ends
of the GOA. The timing of the sensible weather highlights are
dependent the placement of the lows that develop and on the
ensuing track.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning: 121.
         High Wind Warning: 191.
         High Wind Watch: 187.
         Winter Weather Advisory: 152 161 195.
MARINE...Hurricane Force Winds: 177, 178.
         Storm: 130 175 176 411 412 413.
         Heavy Freezing Spray: 160 179 180 185 412 414.
         Gales: 119 120 131 132 138 139 141 150 155 165 170 172
                173 174 179 180 185 351 352 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JPW
LONG TERM...PS