Storm Warning 143, NWS Anchorage, AK

053 
FZAK52 PAFC 221238
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
338 AM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-230145-
338 AM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Veniaminof Volcano, located 37 nm northeast of Sand Point, is 
currently active.

A 976 mb low 160 nm south of Adak will remain nearly stationary 
through Fri evening. The low will then move to 290 nm southeast of
Adak at 956 mb Sat morning.

$$

PKZ150-230145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
338 AM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-230145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
338 AM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. From the
Shumagin Islands E, N wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable
10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt except SE 15 increasing to 25 kt by midnight 
from the Shumagin Islands E. Seas 8 ft building to 12 ft after 
midnight. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. From
the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ160-230145-
Bristol Bay-
338 AM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray along the coast.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray along the coast.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-230145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
338 AM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...North winds 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-230145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
338 AM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ171-230145-
Unalaska Bay-
338 AM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt increasing to late morning 30 kt. Seas
building to 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ172-230145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
338 AM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-230145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
338 AM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ174-230145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
338 AM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt becoming SE 40 kt late afternoon. Seas 21 ft. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-230145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
338 AM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ176-230145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
338 AM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
22 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-230145-
Adak to Kiska-
338 AM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 45 kt Bering side...NE 30 kt Pacific side. Seas
22 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ178-230145-
Kiska to Attu-
338 AM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-230145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
338 AM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.  and rain.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain with snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-230145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
338 AM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-230145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
338 AM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-230145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
338 AM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

141 
FZAK52 PAFC 230022
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
322 PM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-231300-
322 PM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Veniaminof Volcano, located 37 nm northeast of Sand Point, is 
currently active.

A 966 mb low 85 nm South of Adak loops to 355 nm South of Adak at
969 mb for Sat afternoon. Its front arches across the Bering and 
Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf of Alaska through Sat afternoon. 
A 970 mb low 645 nm Southwest of Attu tracks to 365 nm South of 
Dutch Harbor at 959 mb by Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-231300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
322 PM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt in the morning increasing to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft 
building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-231300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
322 PM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 15 kt
increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 14 ft except 6 ft from the 
Shumagin Islands E. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt, except variable 10 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-231300-
Bristol Bay-
322 PM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-231300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
322 PM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt in the evening increasing to 30 kt. 
Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-231300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
322 PM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-231300-
Unalaska Bay-
322 PM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-231300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
322 PM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-231300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
322 PM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 19 ft subsiding to 14 ft after midnight.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-231300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
322 PM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-231300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
322 PM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-231300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
322 PM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-231300-
Adak to Kiska-
322 PM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-231300-
Kiska to Attu-
322 PM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-231300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
322 PM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-231300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
322 PM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas building to 6 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. Rain and snow.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-231300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
322 PM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-231300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
322 PM AKST Thu Nov 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
454 AM AKST Wed Nov 21 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A vertically stacked low is traveling southeastward from Mekoryuk
Island to the Lower Kuskokwim Delta. A negatively tilted, long
wave trough extends over mainland Alaska and over the entire Gulf
of Alaska. At 300 mb, the jet stream is oriented northwesterly-
southeasterly over the eastern Aleutians with a 120 kt streak
skirting the Aleutian chain. Increased vorticity is present in the
area of the low and the jet streak over the eastern Aleutians. A
front is moving over the western Aleutians which can be observed
in satellite imagery. Sandwiched between the long wave trough and
the incoming front, a ridge is quickly building over the Bering
Sea. The Bering remains relatively cloud free with mostly cumulus
present under the ridge and corresponding surface high pressure.
Stratus is making its way into the western Bering with the
associated front. Mainland Alaska is generally covered in stratus
and scattered precipitation as seen on radar imagery. In the
northern Gulf of Alaska, the low is in its final stages of
occlusion as it moves inland over eastern Prince William Sound.
Northerly flow continues to increase across the mainland advecting
a deep layer of cold air over the northern and western parts of
the state. Patchy clearing over Southcentral is leading to
increased surface cooling causing fog to persist for locations
along the the Cook Inlet/Kink Arm this morning. Thus, the Dense
Fog Advisory will continue for Anchorage through noon on
Wednesday.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

No major model discrepancies were noted in the short term with
decent consensus on the significant features impacting the area.
Some fairly significant differences begin to show up by the
weekend with the arrival of the next major system into the Gulf of
Alaska from the North Pacific. The NAM seems to be the outlier
right now as it depicts a 975 mb surface low moving north over
Kodiak Saturday morning with an associated front pushing across
the Gulf Coast later in the day. The EC/GFS are in better
agreement and keep the low out over the southern Gulf with a later
arrival of the front to the coast. The current forecast leans
towards the later solution.

&&

.AVIATION...

Dense fog is expected to persist through most of the day today
with little change in the overall pattern expected. There could
be some temporary improvement and lifting of the fog later this
afternoon but weak winds and a strengthening surface inversion as
ridging builds in from the west will promote fog redevelopment tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Stable conditions across the Anchorage Bowl/Kenai Peninsula have
given rise to fairly widespread fog. Little changes
atmospherically tonight in these areas so we may see a repeat
performance. Gusty northeasterly winds are expected over the
Matanuska Valley today and tonight, so any fog around this morning
is not likely to reappear tonight. Light snow will continue
across the Copper River Basin into the early afternoon hours. Snow
accumulations should be fairly light. Patchy fog will likely
develop in that region overnight with decreasing upper cloud
cover.

A weakening surface low retrogrades west today the dissipates
tonight. An upper level low center moves from the Southwest
Mainland to south of the Gulf tonight. In response, a broad
inverted surface trough will setup over the Gulf and encompass
several small low centers. The net effect will be increased
offshore flow with local gusty gap winds across the north Gulf
Coast and brisk northwest winds over the western Gulf. These
conditions should diminish later Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Snow develops across Bristol Bay this morning as a surface low
slowly slides southeast to the Gulf. The upper level low driving
the front may initiate a few showers through tonight as it shears
apart. Patchy fog should improve tonight as subsidence mixes dry
air down to the surface ahead of an approaching Bering ridge. A
dry cold air mass advects across the region tonight through Friday
night bringing colder than normal temperatures for the end of the
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Snow showers will develop along the eastern Bering through the
afternoon as an upper level shortwave overhead elongates on the
backside of a closed low, which exits southeast later today.
A cold dry air mass vies for dominance across the Bering
as it drops southward behind the exiting low; meanwhile, a strong
warm front pushes across the western Aleutians. The colder air
mass begins to lose its hold tonight as the subtropical jet pushes
the warm front eastward. This front will bring gusty gales along
with rain as the boundary undercuts the cold air mass across the
southern Bering; although a brief period of mixed precipitation is
possible at the onset. The front progresses to the Alaska
Peninsula and the Pribilof Islands Thursday night with a mix of
rain and snow along the boundary as it slows and re-organizes
through Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

A series of fronts and areas of low pressure are expected to
impact Southern mainland Alaska and will make for a warmer,
cloudier, and wetter second half of the Thanksgiving holiday
weekend. A front over the southern and central Gulf Saturday
morning will initiate the process of warming temperatures and
returning the area to a wet pattern. The front will track
northward into the north Gulf Coast by Saturday evening. As the
warmer air moves in, downsloping will likely help to keep
Anchorage and the surrounding areas drier, though perhaps not
entirely precipitation-free. The downsloping will also help to
quickly scour out any cold air as well. A second front will follow
right on the heels of the first for Sunday. However, by then the
models are in disagreement as to how quickly that front will move
through the Gulf into Southcentral. This is largely due to
disagreements on the track and strength of a much stronger 950 mb
low which will be centered near the Alaska Peninsula Sunday
morning. This low is likely to remain nearly stationary or follow
a looping pattern around that area, which in turn will keep
southerly flow of warm air moving into southern mainland Alaska
while winter-like cold air remains well out west over the Bering.
This pattern is likely to persist through much of the rest of the
final week of November, which will keep the area much more wet and
icy than snowy.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory 101.
MARINE...Gales 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 411 413 .

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KVP/RA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...JW