Storm Warning 105, NWS Anchorage, AK

651 
FZAK52 PAFC 102353
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-111300-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 985 mb low 100 nm southeast of Unalakleet moves 100 nm west of 
Hooper Bay at 987 mb Wed night. A 988 mb low 50 nm north of Saint 
Paul moves 100 nm west of Hooper Bay and merges with the first low 
Thu afternoon. This merged low moves 150 nm north of Saint Paul at 
995 mb Fri afternoon. A 993 mb low forms 100 nm southwest of Dutch 
Harbor Wed night and moves 220 nm east of Saint Paul at 988 mb Thu 
evening then dissipates. A front approaches the western Aleutians Fri
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-111300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-111300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 16 ft subsiding to 12 ft after midnight.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ160-111300-
Bristol Bay-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 
10 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-111300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt.Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-111300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E of Dutch Harbor, SW wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt after 
midnight. W of Dutch Harbor, SW wind 25 kt in the evening becoming NW
20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. E of Dutch Harbor, SE wind 20 kt in the morning
becoming NW. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-111300-
Unalaska Bay-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming W 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain
showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-111300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 
ft subsiding to 13 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ173-111300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 10 ft. 
Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-111300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 13
ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ175-111300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-111300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 30 kt, except W wind 20 kt E of Atka. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ177-111300-
Adak to Kiska-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt, except NW wind 20 kt Bering side. Seas 
11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ178-111300-
Kiska to Attu-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ179-111300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 14
ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-111300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-111300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ185-111300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...N 30 kt W of 
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
420 AM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A storm force surface low is in the process of crossing the Alaska
Peninsula early this morning. Ahead of and to the north of the
low, east to northeasterly winds are increasing across much of
Southwest Alaska and coastal Southcentral particularly through
channeled terrain and downwind of gaps and passes. To the south
and west of the low the ASCAT scatterometer indicates storm force
west to northwesterly winds with strongest winds to the south of
the tip of the bent back occlusion. Along the eastern portions of
the Alaska Peninsula and in the greater Bristol Bay area there
have been a couple isolated thunderstorms embedded in the
precipitation along the back edge of the front. To the east of the
low, the ridge aloft has shifted east over the Southeast Alaska
Panhandle and Yukon Territory, while to the west a multi-center
upper level low stretches across the Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good synoptic agreement regarding the current low
and the next two troughs which follow it. By Thursday night and
Friday, some differences start creeping into the model runs
regarding which features become closed triple point surface lows
as opposed to remaining open troughs however the timing of the
waves does remains similar between models.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Wind shear will become an increasing concern this morning
as east to southeasterly gap winds strengthen through Turnagain
Arm. Northerly down inlet surface flow however, should keep these
strong winds from surfacing until after the front moves through
midday. Following that expect strong, gusty southeasterly winds
turning more southerly through the afternoon and early evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The front stretching across the Kenai Peninsula and northern Gulf
will move rapidly northward today, pushing across the Alaska Range
this afternoon. The main surface low associated with this front
will move from near King Salmon this morning to the Yukon Delta
this afternoon. A triple point surface low forming on the front
near Kamishak bay this morning will race up Cook Inlet to near
Denali this afternoon, though this feature is somewhat obscured by
the terrain in the model plots. The result of all of this will be
windy conditions over most of the area. Ahead of and with the
front, the winds will be easterly, and favor gaps in the terrain.
Behind the front and triple point low, the winds will be southerly
and more widespread with the strong pressure rises as surface high
pressure follows the front. Rain will also be more widespread with
and just behind the front, as the flow aloft becomes southwesterly
and downsloping ends. Winds will diminish through tonight into
Thursday as the pressure gradient relaxes. Some showers will
continue as the southwesterly flow aloft remains. Another front
will approach from the southwest Thursday and Thursday night. This
front is not as strong as the Wednesday front. The low level flow
with this front will be more easterly, and thus favor gaps in the
terrain. Some downslope drying will occur, but with plenty of
moisture and fast upper level flow, some showers are still
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Today through Friday) The much-talked about remnants of the
former typhoon are working across the AKPEN now, spreading
widespread light to moderate rainfall across almost all of the
region, with even a few lightning strikes from the AKPEN to north
of King Salmon. This general theme of wet weather looks to
continue over the next few days, as this system lifts north before
retrograding towards Saint Matthews Island, with another
developing low moving from the central Aleutians into the Bristol
Bay region for Thursday into Friday. The combination of cyclonic
flow around the first storm and a renewed moisture surge with the
next low will maintain a chance of rainfall across all of
southwest Alaska through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
(Today through Friday) The remnants of the former typhoon are
moving ashore along the peninsula now, with sustained storm force
winds expected to continue through late morning for locations near
Shelikof Strait, before gradually subsiding this afternoon.
Sustained gales will continue for Bristol Bay on the bay side of
the ex-tropical system, with widespread rainfall continuing from
coastal locations of the AKPEN north across the eastern Bering
Sea.

Farther west, sustained low-end gales are expected on the Bering
side of the central Aleutians, as disturbances rotating around the
Bering low help mix down some stronger winds aloft. Otherwise,
precipitation will be more showery compared to locations further
east. Heading into Thursday and Friday, look for winds to be at or
below small craft conditions with no significant seas expected,
and showers continuing.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The mid to long term begins Friday with the models in overall
agreement with a low over the eastern to northern Bering Sea and
a ridge of high pressure extending into southeast Alaska. The
models have also come into good agreement with respect to the next
storm on tap for the western Bering Sea, moving into the western
Aleutians late Friday. This storm is taking a track along the
Aleutian chain to the western Alaska Peninsula through Monday
morning. This is where the models then begin to show more
significant differences in the solutions for it. At that point the
ensemble and WPC solutions will be used. The current forecast have
a slightly faster track for the low along the Aleutians, and we
will nudge toward this solution, primarily resulting in adjusting
the wind direction to better align with the WPC solution.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 119 120 125 130 131 136 137 139 140 141 150 155 160.
		 Storm 132 138.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...SA