Small Craft Advisory 960, NWS Anchorage, AK

630 
FZAK52 PAFC 060014
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
314 PM AKST Wed Dec 5 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-061300-
314 PM AKST Wed Dec 5 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 991 mb low 160 nm southwest of Dutch Harbor will move to the 
North Pacific Fri morning. A front over the central Aleutians will
move over the eastern Aleutians Fri afternoon. 

$$

PKZ150-061300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
314 PM AKST Wed Dec 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ155-061300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
314 PM AKST Wed Dec 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 11 ft toward
morning.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ160-061300-
Bristol Bay-
314 PM AKST Wed Dec 5 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Areas 
of fog.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-061300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
314 PM AKST Wed Dec 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 25 kt after midnight.
From Port Moller E, N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-061300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
314 PM AKST Wed Dec 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ171-061300-
Unalaska Bay-
314 PM AKST Wed Dec 5 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 
3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-061300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
314 PM AKST Wed Dec 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 14 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ173-061300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
314 PM AKST Wed Dec 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-061300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
314 PM AKST Wed Dec 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 17 ft after
midnight. Rain showers and snow showers.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ175-061300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
314 PM AKST Wed Dec 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-061300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
314 PM AKST Wed Dec 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt becoming NW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft
building to 15 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ177-061300-
Adak to Kiska-
314 PM AKST Wed Dec 5 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 11 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft Bering side...22 ft Pacific side.
Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
22 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ178-061300-
Kiska to Attu-
314 PM AKST Wed Dec 5 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 35 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ179-061300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
314 PM AKST Wed Dec 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-061300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
314 PM AKST Wed Dec 5 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
4 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog and freezing fog.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-061300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
314 PM AKST Wed Dec 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft. Snow.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ185-061300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
314 PM AKST Wed Dec 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
500 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad vertically stacked low over the the central Aleutians
remains nearly stationary this evening. The circulation
encompasses all of the Bering Sea and is pushing into the western
Gulf. Within the flow around the low, a short wave stretches over
western mainland Alaska and into Southcentral. This shortwave is
associated with an occluded front at the surface which is
migrating northward bringing precipitation to western mainland
Alaska and Southcentral. The lower Kuskokwim Valley is
experiencing some light snow along the coastline while inland is
more freezing rain as there is warmer air aloft with a shallow
pool of cold air at the surface. As the occluded front processes
into the northern Gulf, isobaric packing along the coastline is
creating strong easterly winds across the Gulf coast, Portage
Valley, and along Turnagain Arm. Southerly flow aloft is advecting
relatively warmer air and moistening the once very dry air column
that persisted over Southcentral. While southerly winds are
prevalent in the upper levels, near the surface, weak northerly
flow is allowing the shallow cold air pool near the surface to
persist through the greater Anchorage area.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models overall are trending in the same direction with the latest
runs. This has lead to a higher confidence forecast for Thursday
and Fri with a developing low heading north across the western
Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC... Generally light winds and VFR conditions are expected to
prevail across the airport complex. LLWS will continue to be a
concern with northerly winds at the surface with strong and gusty
southeast winds aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A front is moving inland as we speak, bringing coastal rain and
higher elevation coastal snow (except snow at MSL in Valdez).
Inland, strong downsloping is keeping most locations dry, and will
continue to do so, but areas near the shortwave trough from the
Chugach west (including Anchorage) will see a chance of wintry mix
this evening (graupel, rain, freezing rain, or maybe a bit of
snow). The only areas of decent inland accumulating snow will be
the northern Susitna Valley.

Thereafter, a series of waves will move north through Southwest
Alaska and into the Gulf of Alaska through Thursday, bringing
periods of rain/snow to the coast, but largely remaining dry
inland. This will keep daytime highs and lows well above average
but with periods of mostly cloudy skies. The next strong gale
force low moves into the Gulf of Alaska Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An active weather pattern continues tonight as a strong upper
level disturbance propagates overhead from the North Pacific. Rain
is expected to spread north along the eastern Alaska Peninsula
and Bristol Bay this evening. The rain band moves across the
Kuskokwim Valley late tonight and may mix with snow at times
during the early morning on Wednesday. The main stream of moisture
remains stretched across the aforementioned region through
Thursday afternoon, then tapers off briefly. The upper level jet
begins to convey the next frontal occlusion across from the
western Gulf Thursday night through Friday across the same
locations. Winds generally remain out of the south, then become
northerly on Friday with the next approaching surface low.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The stacked low over the southern Bering slowly fills to 990 mb as
it crosses back over the the Pacific waters Wednesday afternoon.
Winds taper down, especially heading into Wednesday evening. The
next two low pressure systems move toward the western and northern
waters Wednesday night. The front dropping across the northern
Bering advects a cooler air mass across into Friday bringing a
change of precipitation back to all snow.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
(Friday through Tuesday)

The numerical guidance continues to come into better agreement,
which shows a wet and stormy pattern looks to continue through
early next week for the region. The first system of significance
will be a rapidly strengthening low that moves north to near
Kodiak Island, as a piece of energy from the current central
Aleutians low phases with energy ejecting north in the front edge
(of the trough) southerly flow. The strengthening low will also be
positioned close enough to the rear entrance region of a 70 knot
upper jet to our north/northeast, and in the left exit region of
an incoming 130 knot jet streak. Although these two jets are
somewhat more displaced that one would normally prefer to maximize
a coupled jet dynamics, they appear close enough to have some
degree of interaction, increasing the amount of lift available for
the developing storm.

Adding to the mix is a strong mid-level disturbance dropping
southeast to near Nunivak Island. This system will bring down a
shot of much colder air from the Arctic, which looks to encompass
the eastern two-thirds of the Bering/Aleutians and southwest
Alaska through Friday, spilling into southcentral during your
Saturday, and the Copper Basin (at least the northern part) on
Sunday. With colder air in place, some wintry type precipitation
will likely develop. It'll be interesting to see how much of the
tropical moisture affecting the coastal locations gets advected
into this colder airmass, as current indications are moisture
values being 400 percent above normal or more.

Then, the central Bering trough will get kicked eastward for the
weekend as both the Nunivak disturbance and a strong storm near
the Kamchatka Peninsula move east. This transient trough will
absorb another disturbance moving into the Gulf from near the
tropics, helping to bring added warmth and moisture into yet
another developing cyclone that rapidly deepens as it tracks from
the eastern Gulf towards Prince William Sound (PWS) in the Friday
afternoon into Saturday time frame. Then, as the PWS low wobbles
in place as it slowly fills, a third and fourth storm eject
northward while phasing, reaching eastern PWS for the end of the
weekend.

This whole entourage of systems finally gets shoved east as a
pair of systems move into the western Bering and Aleutians. The
first feature of interest here is a strong front attached to
another Kamchatka low, as it rapidly sweeps eastward across the
Bering/Aleutian chain during the weekend. Following quickly on its
heels is a strong storm that enters the picture south of Adak on
Sunday, riding the island chain eastward to Kodiak by Monday. Both
of these systems will have at least sustained gales, with the
latter likely being of storm force strength and widespread
precipitation.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 150 170 172 175-178 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RA/BC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...PD