Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2018
Small Craft Advisory 754, NWS Anchorage, AK
NWS Anchorage, AK issued this small craft advisory at Oct 3, 2018, 3:51 PM AKDT. It was in force for 24 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 3, 2018, 3:51 PM AKDT (23:51 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 4, 2018, 3:56 PM AKDT
- In force
- 24 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Anchorage, AK
The text
As transmitted.
172 FZAK51 PAFC 032351 CWFAER Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018 Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet. Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ197-041315- 351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+ COOK INLET... A front pushes across the Gulf through Fri afternoon. A 997 mb low forms along the front 120 nm Southwest of Cordova Thu morning and moves to 80 nm Northwest of Sitka at 1012 mb for Fri afternoon. $$ PKZ119-041315- Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare- 351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018 ...GALE WARNING THURSDAY... .TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain. .THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Widespread rain showers. .THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Near the coast, E wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft. .FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. .FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. .MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ120-041315- Cape Cleare to Gore Point- 351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY... .TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers. .THU...E wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. .THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. .FRI AND FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ121-041315- Resurrection Bay- 351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018 .TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .THU...N wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ125-041315- Prince William Sound- 351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018 ...GALE WARNING THURSDAY... .TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain. .THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Widespread rain showers. .THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain showers. .FRI AND FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ126-041315- Port Valdez- 351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018 .TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .THU...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers. .FRI AND FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ127-041315- Valdez Narrows- 351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY... .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. .THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers. .THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers. .FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ128-041315- Valdez Arm- 351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018 .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. .THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers. .THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers. .FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ129-041315- Passage Canal- 351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018 .TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers. .THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .FRI AND FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ130-041315- West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay- 351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain showers. .THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ131-041315- Barren Islands East- 351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY... .TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain. .THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. .THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. $$ PKZ132-041315- Marmot Island to Sitkinak- 351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 13 ft. .THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. .THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. .FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. .MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ136-041315- Chiniak Bay- 351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers. .THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ137-041315- Marmot Bay- 351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. .THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ138-041315- Shelikof Strait- 351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Rain showers. .THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ139-041315- Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede- 351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY... .TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Widespread rain showers. .THU...NE wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. .THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ140-041315- Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- 351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY... .TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Widespread rain showers. .THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain. .THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ141-041315- Kachemak Bay- 351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018 .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt early becoming E 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. .THU...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. .THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$
3 follow-up statements
841 FZAK51 PAFC 041147 CWFAER Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet. Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ197-050030- 347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+ COOK INLET... A front in the central Gulf moves to the northeastern Gulf Thu evening. A 998 mb low forms 60 nm west of Middleton Island Thu afternoon and moves inland Fri morning at 1009 mb. A second front enters the southwestern Gulf Fri night. $$ PKZ119-050030- Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare- 347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Near the coast, E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft. Widespread rain showers. .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Near the coast, SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas subsiding to 11 ft. .FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. .FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. $$ PKZ120-050030- Cape Cleare to Gore Point- 347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY... .TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. .FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. $$ PKZ121-050030- Resurrection Bay- 347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 .TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. .FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ125-050030- Prince William Sound- 347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain showers. .TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers. .FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ126-050030- Port Valdez- 347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 .TODAY...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers. .FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ127-050030- Valdez Narrows- 347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY... .TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers. .TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers. .FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ128-050030- Valdez Arm- 347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 .TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers. .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers. .FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ129-050030- Passage Canal- 347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers. .TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. .FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ130-050030- West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay- 347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 .TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. $$ PKZ131-050030- Barren Islands East- 347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY... .TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. $$ PKZ132-050030- Marmot Island to Sitkinak- 347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. .TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. .FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. .MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. $$ PKZ136-050030- Chiniak Bay- 347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 .TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. .FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ137-050030- Marmot Bay- 347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 .TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ138-050030- Shelikof Strait- 347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY... .TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. .FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ139-050030- Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede- 347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY... .TODAY...NE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 3 ft. .FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ140-050030- Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- 347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY... .TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. .FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ141-050030- Kachemak Bay- 347 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 .TODAY...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$
641 FZAK51 PAFC 041556 CWFAER Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 756 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet. Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ197-050315- 756 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+ COOK INLET... A front in the central Gulf moves to the northeastern Gulf Thu evening. A 998 mb low forms 60 nm west of Middleton Island Thu afternoon and moves inland Fri morning at 1009 mb. A second front enters the southwestern Gulf Fri night. $$ PKZ119-050315- Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare- 756 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Near the coast, E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft. Widespread rain showers. .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Near the coast, SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas subsiding to 11 ft. .FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. .FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. $$ PKZ120-050315- Cape Cleare to Gore Point- 756 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY... .TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. .FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. $$ PKZ121-050315- Resurrection Bay- 756 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 .TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. .FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ125-050315- Prince William Sound- 756 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain showers. .TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers. .FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ126-050315- Port Valdez- 756 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 .TODAY...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers. .FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ127-050315- Valdez Narrows- 756 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 .TODAY...NE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. Widespread rain showers. .TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers. .FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ128-050315- Valdez Arm- 756 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 .TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers. .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers. .FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ129-050315- Passage Canal- 756 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers. .TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. .FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ130-050315- West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay- 756 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 .TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. $$ PKZ131-050315- Barren Islands East- 756 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY... .TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. $$ PKZ132-050315- Marmot Island to Sitkinak- 756 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. .TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. .FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. .MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. $$ PKZ136-050315- Chiniak Bay- 756 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 .TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. .FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ137-050315- Marmot Bay- 756 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 .TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ138-050315- Shelikof Strait- 756 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 .TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. .FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ139-050315- Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede- 756 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY... .TODAY...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 3 ft. .FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ140-050315- Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- 756 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY... .TODAY...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the late afternoon. Seas 6 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming Variable 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. .FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ141-050315- Kachemak Bay- 756 AM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 .TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$
310 FZAK51 PAFC 042356 CWFAER Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet. Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ197-051300- 356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+ COOK INLET... Low pressure in the northern Gulf will move inland Thu night. A front will enter the southwestern Gulf Fri night, then it will move into the central Gulf Sat afternoon. $$ PKZ119-051300- Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare- 356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Near the coast, SE wind 35 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft. .FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. .FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. $$ PKZ120-051300- Cape Cleare to Gore Point- 356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming SW 15 kt. Seas 11 ft diminishing to 8 ft. .FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. .FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. $$ PKZ121-051300- Resurrection Bay- 356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 .TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming variable wind 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. .FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ125-051300- Prince William Sound- 356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers. .FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ126-051300- Port Valdez- 356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 .TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers. .FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ127-051300- Valdez Narrows- 356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 .TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers. .FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ128-051300- Valdez Arm- 356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers. .FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ129-051300- Passage Canal- 356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 .TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ130-051300- West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay- 356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. $$ PKZ131-051300- Barren Islands East- 356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. .FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. .SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. $$ PKZ132-051300- Marmot Island to Sitkinak- 356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. .FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers. .SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. .SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. .MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. .TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. $$ PKZ136-051300- Chiniak Bay- 356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 .TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. $$ PKZ137-051300- Marmot Bay- 356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 .TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. .SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. $$ PKZ138-051300- Shelikof Strait- 356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. .SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ139-051300- Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede- 356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 .TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming SE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. .FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. $$ PKZ140-051300- Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- 356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. .FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. .SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ141-051300- Kachemak Bay- 356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 4 2018 .TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. .FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. .FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Oct 3, 4:28 AM AKDT, 11 hours 23 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 3, 4:28 AM AKDT, 11 hours 23 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
428 AM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A large upper level low over the Bering continues to be the main
story for our weather today. The leading frontal boundary is
currently lifting inland over southwest Alaska, spreading in rain
across the AKPEN and along the southwest coast. Surface
observations indicate persistent southeasterly winds along
coastal areas of the AKPEN.
Ahead of this front, the remnants of an occluded front have moved
into the central Gulf, generating a weak shortwave over
Southcentral. As a result, a few showers are visible on radar
imagery this morning along the southern coast of Kenai Peninsula
and over Prince William Sound. Some showers are also spreading in
across the Susitna Valley.
&&
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in generally good agreement with large scale
synoptic features. The forecast challenge continues to be the
timing of the front associated with the Bering low moving into
Southcentral on Thursday. At this time, the GFS solution was
preferred.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light winds will persist.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The weather the next few days will be the story of a series of
fronts that emanate from a large low in the Bering Sea which move
from south-to-north over Southcentral Alaska. The first front
moves over the region yesterday and is weakening over the inland
part of southcentral Alaska and Prince William Sound. This weak
front is bringing some rain to the windward sides of the Kenai
and Chugach Mountains with only a few sprinkles making it to the
leeward sides.
A second, and stronger, front will be moving over Kodiak Island
later this morning and to the Barren Islands by the evening. This
front should bring Gale force winds to marine areas north of
Kodiak beginning this evening and then spread Gales to the north
Gulf Coast with the development of a barrier jet. Also of note is
that there will be an area of instability along the front in the
Gulf of Alaska which may be enough to kick off some isolated
thunderstorms over parts of the Gulf on Thursday.
Once again, the rain will start off on just over the mountains and
windward slopes, but on Thursday an upper level wave will increase
the lifting over Cook Inlet and the Susitna Valley. This wave will
likely bring some rain to the lee of the mountains as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A negatively tilted shortwave continues to move closer to
Southwest Alaska this morning bringing showers to the central
AKPEN and west coast this morning. A few embedded thunderstorms
are also possible throughout the Bristol Bay region this afternoon
as the surface trough moves into the Southwest. The surface trough
and upper-level shortwave will weaken as it moves further north
and west across the interior late Wednesday and becomes absorbed
into the longwave pattern. Another shortwave trough quickly
advancing east underneath the broad low over the Bering will
follow in its wake, bringing another round of showers, gusty
southerly winds, and a few isolated thunderstorms along the
surface front. This storm will advance quickly bringing another
round of gusty winds and a moisture rich frontal boundary to the
region Wednesday night into Thursday. As this trough lifts north
on Thursday, another shortwave will move into the Southwest behind
it, reinforcing the precipitation and southerly winds through
Thursday night. By Friday, the main upper-level low over the
Bering retreats to the west, allowing a more organized north
Pacific low to move across the eastern Bering. This low will
weaken as it enters the eastern Bering, but more rain will move
over the region for Friday as its associated occluded front slides
across the AKPEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
A long-wave trough with a vertically stacked low sitting over the
central Bering will continue to dominate the weather pattern over
the region through the end of the week. A vigorous shortwave
undercutting the low will produce showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the central Bering, Aleutians, and Pribilofs
today. This system will also continue to produce storm-force
winds across the western and central Aleutians with hurricane-
force wind gusts likely at Adak this morning. This shortwave lifts
northeast into the eastern Bering tonight with another following
on its heels into the eastern Bering for Thursday as the main low
lifts north toward Saint Matthew Island. As it does, a second
upper-level low will drop south over the western Bering and
Aleutians, bringing more showers and gusty westerly winds. Farther
east, a north Pacific low will quickly strengthen as it moves
north toward the eastern Aleutians with showers and gusty
southerly winds developing east of Nikolski late Thursday. Both
the low over the eastern Aleutians and the shortwave father west
lift northeast for Friday as the axis of the longwave trough drifts
west. As this center moves west, it will help steer a Kamchatka
Low into the western Aleutians and a second low into the eastern
Aleutians and AKPEN as the work week draws to a close.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
The picture is beginning to become a little more clear for the
long range portion of the forecast. Todays models runs of the GFS
and ECMWF (Euro) have a much improved agreement amongst each
other compared to days past, with the Canadian still vastly
different, and thus will be discounted. The only fly in the
ointment is the 12z Euro does try retrograde a closed mid-level
low from the northern Yukon into northeast Alaska before lifting
it north into the Arctic. Still, the overall height fields are in
reasonable agreement for the remainder of the state and the
region in general.
There are still a few question marks though regarding 3 tropical
interactions. The first is the much-talked about former Super
Typhoon Trami, with the left over parent low anchoring a deep
trough across the western Bering and extending into the western
Pacific. Next is Super Typhoon Kong-Rey, which will track from the
Sea of Japan into the western Pacific before getting absorbed
into the Bering trough. This system will lead to surface
cyclogenesis south of the western tip of the AKPEN, before
deepening as it lifts across the eastern Bering. Gale to Storm
force winds and heavy rain will accompany both the trough and this
system as it rides the eastern flank of the trough. Multiple
fronts from each vort lobe cycling around the trough does look to
induce surface low pressure development with its associated
fronts lifting north through southwest and southcentral Alaska
next week with rounds of rainfall developing.
Finally, where does the remnants of category 4 Hurricane Walaka
(southwest of Hawaii currently) go, as it gets absorbed into a
central Pacific mid-level low. The past few days the models
tracked the remnants towards south central, with today it getting
shunted to the east as the east Pacific ridge tries to build
across south central. This would decrease our rainfall potential
and warm temperatures some. However, this is a new wrinkle in the
forecast and confidence in this is very low compared to the
previously mentioned two systems.
&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 187.
MARINE...Storm 173 175 176 177 178
Gale 160 165 170 172 174 179 181 185
&&
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TM
LONG TERM...PDIn the hours before
Local storm report, Oct 3, 11:54 AM AKDT, 3 hours 57 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1154 AM AKDT WED OCT 3 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0412 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ADAK 51.87N 176.64W
10/03/2018 E86 MPH ALEUTIANS WEST AK C-MAN STATION
&&Local storm report, Oct 3, 12:02 PM AKDT, 3 hours 49 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1202 PM AKDT WED OCT 3 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0412 AM MARINE TSTM WIND ADAK 51.87N 176.64W
10/03/2018 M86 MPH ALEUTIANS WEST AK C-MAN STATION
&&
KUTZThe office that day
Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 10:24 PM AKDT | High Wind Warning | AFC | 14 hr | |
| Oct 3, 3:49 AM AKDT | Gale Warning | AFC | 48 hr | |
| Oct 3, 3:49 AM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 28 hr | |
| Oct 3, 3:50 AM AKDT | Gale Warning | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Oct 3, 3:54 AM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Oct 3, 3:54 AM AKDT | Storm Warning | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Oct 3, 3:54 PM AKDT | Gale Warning | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Oct 3, 3:58 PM AKDT | Gale Warning | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Oct 3, 3:58 PM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 4 days |
Nearby
Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2018Every small craft advisory in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.