Small Craft Advisory 704, NWS Anchorage, AK

967 
FZAK52 PAFC 161151
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
351 AM AKDT Sun Sep 16 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-170100-
351 AM AKDT Sun Sep 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front over the western Aleutians will move into the central 
Bering and weaken tonight. High pressure builds through Tue. 

$$

PKZ150-170100-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
351 AM AKDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ155-170100-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
351 AM AKDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ160-170100-
Bristol Bay-
351 AM AKDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-170100-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
351 AM AKDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-170100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
351 AM AKDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-170100-
Unalaska Bay-
351 AM AKDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the 
afternoon. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-170100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
351 AM AKDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-170100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
351 AM AKDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-170100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
351 AM AKDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ175-170100-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
351 AM AKDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-170100-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
351 AM AKDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ177-170100-
Adak to Kiska-
351 AM AKDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ178-170100-
Kiska to Attu-
351 AM AKDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-170100-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
351 AM AKDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-170100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
351 AM AKDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-170100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
351 AM AKDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-170100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
351 AM AKDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Areas of fog.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
416 AM AKDT Sat Sep 15 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Water Vapor satellite imagery shows the much anticipated pattern
change underway, as the troughing pattern across the Bering has
shifted to the eastern waters. The closed low center within the
trough is spinning on an eastward track just north of the Alaska
Peninsula. The mainland ridge is breaking down with its axis now
shoved south to the gulf. At the surface...a front has moved
inland across the Southwest with the leading boundary stretching
across from Aniak to Dillingham. Rain is most notable across the
Kuskokwim Delta and along the eastern Bering where a strong short
wave tracking around the core of the low.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in generally in good agreement through Sunday with the
synoptic pattern, then slightly diverge on solutions for the
diminishing storm as it tracks toward the Gulf on Monday. Only
minor changes were made for the morning package with the
NAM/NAMnest used for updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions are expected through Sunday morning however
mid level clouds overspread the region today as the next front
approaches from the southwest. Showers will develop tonight,
however there is still some uncertainty on the timing for light
rain. Added light rain early Sunday morning as the upper low nears
the Alaska Range. Southeasterly flow will prevail through the TAF
package with surface ridging along the gulf and low pressure
across the Southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
The ridging that extends across the western Gulf through the
Susitna Valley will continue to push off to the east today while a
front will track into the area from the southwest. The front will
move through Kodiak Island this morning then head towards
Southcentral Alaska tonight. This system will bring rain to much
of Southcentral Sunday, however it looks to be light as much of
the moisture will be blocked by the coastal mountains along the
north Gulf coast. Additionally, the parent low will dig south into
the North Pacific, limiting any upper level support over the
southern mainland. Rain will then diminish for the area through
Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A sharp upper level shortwave trough is moving into Southwest
Alaska this morning, sparking off showers and even a few isolated
thunderstorms near the Ahklun Mountains and southern Kuskokwim
Delta. Rain and showers will steadily fill into all of Southwest
today and tonight with widespread precipitation as the upper
trough moves inland. By Sunday, the upper level wave will begin to
shear out and weaken, but also slow down, as it moves toward the
AK Range. Precipitation will wane Sunday and last longest near the
AK Range with drying behind it. Expect cooler conditions to last
behind the trough as cooler and moist onshore flow will likely
keep clouds around.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The Bering low has now made it to the Pribilof Islands and will
move inland by thus afternoon. Broad westerly flow will setup
behind this low with precipitation moving inland with it. Small
craft westerly winds will encompass most of the Bering Sea and
parts of the Aleutian Chain as weak upper level shortwave troughs
move through the upper level flow. Otherwise, expect typical
development of Bering fog and sea stratus after some clearing
behind this first surface low moving inland.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Monday night through Friday)...
An upper level trough slowly dissipating over the South Mainland
will bring continued cloudiness and showery weather to most of the
area through early next week. The good news beyond that is that
confidence is increasing that ridging from the Bering Sea will
likely move over the South Mainland beginning Wednesday. This
will bring offshore flow and sunny skies back to most areas for
the middle to end of next week. One notable difference will be the
much more seasonable temperatures as 850 mb temperatures under
this ridge will be nearly 10 deg C cooler than during the record
warmth experienced this week. The western Bering/Aleutians on the
other hand will see more active weather beginning on Wednesday
into late next week as the storm track off the Northwest Pacific
will ride along the western edge of the Bering ridge.

The biggest question in the long term forecast surrounds how long
the stretch of quiet weather that develops on Wednesday over much
of the forecast area will continue. One important difference in
the models in the last 24 hours has been for much stronger ridging
over the Bering, leading to much quieter weather from the Central
Bering eastward into the end of next week. If this trend of
stronger and less progressive ridging continues (as had been the
case with the current warm/dry spell) then it certainly is very
possible that more prolonged stretch of quiet weather could occur
for much of the forecast area again.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...DEK