Small Craft Advisory 673, NWS Anchorage, AK

419 
FZAK51 PAFC 312342
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
342 PM AKDT Fri Aug 31 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-011300-
342 PM AKDT Fri Aug 31 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front sweeps across the southern Gulf through Sun afternoon. A 
1010 mb low 15 nm west of Seward moves to 90 nm south of Middleton
Island at 1012 mb and dissipates Sat afternoon. A 1012 mb low 
forms along the front 285 nm south of Middleton Island for Sat 
morning and moves onshore 70 nm southeast of Sitka at 1006 mb by 
Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-011300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
342 PM AKDT Fri Aug 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-011300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
342 PM AKDT Fri Aug 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 7 
ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt in the morning becoming W 15 kt. 
Seas 3 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ121-011300-
Resurrection Bay-
342 PM AKDT Fri Aug 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt in the evening increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5
ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-011300-
Prince William Sound-
342 PM AKDT Fri Aug 31 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after 
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-011300-
Port Valdez-
342 PM AKDT Fri Aug 31 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-011300-
Valdez Narrows-
342 PM AKDT Fri Aug 31 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 
ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming NE 20 kt. Seas 3 
ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-011300-
Valdez Arm-
342 PM AKDT Fri Aug 31 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt in the evening becoming NE
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-011300-
Passage Canal-
342 PM AKDT Fri Aug 31 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-011300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
342 PM AKDT Fri Aug 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-011300-
Barren Islands East-
342 PM AKDT Fri Aug 31 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ132-011300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
342 PM AKDT Fri Aug 31 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ136-011300-
Chiniak Bay-
342 PM AKDT Fri Aug 31 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.

$$

PKZ137-011300-
Marmot Bay-
342 PM AKDT Fri Aug 31 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-011300-
Shelikof Strait-
342 PM AKDT Fri Aug 31 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after
midnight.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-011300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
342 PM AKDT Fri Aug 31 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-011300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
342 PM AKDT Fri Aug 31 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-011300-
Kachemak Bay-
342 PM AKDT Fri Aug 31 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

661 
FZAK51 PAFC 011141
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
341 AM AKDT Sat Sep 1 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-020100-
341 AM AKDT Sat Sep 1 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front moves across the southern Gulf through Sun afternoon. 
A 1010 mb low 60 nm east of Middleton Island moves inland 50 nm 
northwest of Klawock at 1004 mb by Sun morning.

$$

PKZ119-020100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
341 AM AKDT Sat Sep 1 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ120-020100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
341 AM AKDT Sat Sep 1 2018

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ121-020100-
Resurrection Bay-
341 AM AKDT Sat Sep 1 2018

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-020100-
Prince William Sound-
341 AM AKDT Sat Sep 1 2018

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-020100-
Port Valdez-
341 AM AKDT Sat Sep 1 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-020100-
Valdez Narrows-
341 AM AKDT Sat Sep 1 2018

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-020100-
Valdez Arm-
341 AM AKDT Sat Sep 1 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-020100-
Passage Canal-
341 AM AKDT Sat Sep 1 2018

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Gusts to 20 kt near Whittier. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt near Whittier. 
Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Gusts to 25 kt near Whittier in the morning. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-020100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
341 AM AKDT Sat Sep 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-020100-
Barren Islands East-
341 AM AKDT Sat Sep 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-020100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
341 AM AKDT Sat Sep 1 2018

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ136-020100-
Chiniak Bay-
341 AM AKDT Sat Sep 1 2018

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Gusts to 25 kt in the morning. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-020100-
Marmot Bay-
341 AM AKDT Sat Sep 1 2018

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt in the morning. 
Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-020100-
Shelikof Strait-
341 AM AKDT Sat Sep 1 2018

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt out of bays and passes 
in the morning. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-020100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
341 AM AKDT Sat Sep 1 2018

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming SW 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. 
Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-020100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
341 AM AKDT Sat Sep 1 2018

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. 
Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-020100-
Kachemak Bay-
341 AM AKDT Sat Sep 1 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 15 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas building to 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
820 PM AKDT Thu Aug 30 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is an upper low over the Bering Sea. There is a trough over
mainland Alaska associated with a low in the Arctic Ocean. There
is a very large ridge over the northern Pacific. The flow aloft
over southern Alaska and the southern Bering/Aleutians is
westerly, with some embedded weak upper level troughs. At the
surface, there is a fairly strong low (999mb with Gale force
winds) in the Bering Sea. There is a low in central Alaska with
fairly strong onshore southwesterly winds over much of the
mainland. The exception is in the Prince William Sound area and
the northern Gulf, where a lee trough is forming, with associated
outflow winds. Showers and/or rain cover a decent portion of the
southern mainland and Bering Sea, but most of this is pretty
light.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in good agreement through the short term
portion of the forecast (Saturday afternoon). They now agree
pretty well on the details of the Bering low moving into the Gulf
Friday night and Saturday, with a ridge building in from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Gusty southerly winds will
continue this evening, diminishing later tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A shortwave trough moving through Southcentral will continue to
produce areas of scattered rainfall and a few isolated
thunderstorms from the Susitna Valley across the Talkeetnas
through the evening. These areas of showers and storms will
diminish in coverage as the shortwave slides into northern Gulf
for Friday morning. A second shortwave currently over Bristol Bay
will slide west on the heels of the first and swing into the
western Gulf for the first half of Friday. Although the best
dynamics with this system will stay south of of the coast, clouds
will linger over Southcentral through Friday due to a persistent
cyclonic flow aloft. Showers will also be less numerous and
confined more to the higher terrain as the wind profile with this
system lacks the more moist, southerly fetch. A ridge will then
build into the region from the north and west beginning Friday
night and linger over the southern half of the state through the
weekend.

The other story with these shortwaves is the formation of a pair
of lee-side surface lows helping to enhance the offshore flow
across Southcentral Alaska. The first is currently developing over
the western half of Prince William Sound. As it spins up this
evening, offshore winds will increase from Turnagain Arm and
Passage Canal south to Seward. A second, weaker, surface low will
develop late Friday. This will keep the offshore winds going and
help produce some patchy fog along the eastern shore of Prince
William Sound Friday night. Low temperatures Friday and Saturday
night could drop into the middle to upper 30s for locations in
the Knik River Valley and around east Anchorage with clearing
skies and calm winds under the ridge. Some locations in the Copper
River Basin could see overnight lows dip below freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An elongating upper trough over the central and eastern Bering
Sea, with shortwaves rotating inland, will dominate the pattern
through early Saturday morning as it tracks southeastward across
the Alaska Peninsula. High pressure begins to build in over the
southwest Mainland Saturday morning through early next week.
Gusty onshore winds out of the southwest will begin to diminish
overnight tonight into Friday morning, with showery conditions
lingering through Friday afternoon before tapering off for the
weekend. A dry and offshore flow pattern sets up over the area
Friday night through Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A gale force low over the northcentral Bering will continue to
slowly weaken as it progresses southeastward across the eastern
Bering through Friday night, and across the AKPen Saturday. As a
result, gusty winds will begin to diminish slowly tonight through
Friday. The flow over the Bering Sea will gradually shift to
northerly through Saturday, before winds slacken as high pressure
builds in from the west through much of the weekend. The next
frontal system encroaches on the western Aleutians Sunday night,
bringing some gusty winds and rain to the area.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

The long-awaited period of dry, seasonable, and downright pleasant
weather across all of southern mainland Alaska remains on track
this afternoon. A large area of high pressure over the central
Bering, centered right over the Pribilofs on Monday will only
drift eastward to the coast of Southwest Alaska through Thursday.
While the high pressure won't be centered right over Southcentral,
it will still be effectively acting as a giant wall, protecting
southern mainland Alaska from any lows that attempt to move
eastward out of the Pacific and western Bering. A low and its
associated frontal precipitation move into the western Aleutians
during the day Monday. The high pressure block causes it to track
southeastward, which will allow the precipitation to get into the
central Aleutians by Wednesday, but then stall out and perhaps
even retrograde back to the west on Thursday. The one notable
exception is the EC, which in a large shift from yesterday, now
allows that low to track into the eastern Bering, and slug some
rain into Southwest Alaska Wednesday night and Southcentral by
Thursday morning. As this solution is a big outlier and a large
shift from previous runs, it was discounted today, but worth
mentioning.

With that weather setup in place, the only weather hazard across
the southern Mainland will be the potential for gusty northerly to
westerly gap winds through Prince William Sound, southern Cook
Inlet/Barren Islands, and Kodiak by Thursday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 199 120 138.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...JW