Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2018

Small Craft Advisory 652, NWS Anchorage, AK

August 23, 2018

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this small craft advisory at Aug 23, 2018, 3:09 AM AKDT. It was in force for 37 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Aug 23, 2018, 3:09 AM AKDT (11:09 UTC)
Expired
Aug 24, 2018, 3:48 PM AKDT
In force
37 hr
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted.

507 
FZAK51 PAFC 231109
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-240030-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front pushes into the Eastern Gulf for Fri afternoon. A second
front enters the Western Gulf Fri afternoon and pushes across the
Central Gulf by Sat morning.

$$

PKZ119-240030-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-240030-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-240030-
Resurrection Bay-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2
ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-240030-
Prince William Sound-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-240030-
Port Valdez-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-240030-
Valdez Narrows-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 
ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 
kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-240030-
Valdez Arm-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-240030-
Passage Canal-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-240030-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE by late morning. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-240030-
Barren Islands East-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ132-240030-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ136-240030-
Chiniak Bay-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-240030-
Marmot Bay-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-240030-
Shelikof Strait-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-240030-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft building to 5 ft after midnight.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-240030-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-240030-
Kachemak Bay-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft after midnight.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$
3 follow-up statements
890 
FZAK51 PAFC 232351
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
351 PM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-241215-
351 PM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front in the southwestern Gulf will move into the northern Gulf
Fri afternoon then it will dissipate Sat morning. A second front
will enter the southern Gulf Sat morning then it will move into
the central Gulf Sat afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-241215-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
351 PM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt becoming W by the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-241215-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
351 PM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-241215-
Resurrection Bay-
351 PM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2
ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-241215-
Prince William Sound-
351 PM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-241215-
Port Valdez-
351 PM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-241215-
Valdez Narrows-
351 PM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-241215-
Valdez Arm-
351 PM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-241215-
Passage Canal-
351 PM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-241215-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
351 PM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-241215-
Barren Islands East-
351 PM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-241215-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
351 PM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-241215-
Chiniak Bay-
351 PM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-241215-
Marmot Bay-
351 PM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-241215-
Shelikof Strait-
351 PM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-241215-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
351 PM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-241215-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
351 PM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.

$$

PKZ141-241215-
Kachemak Bay-
351 PM AKDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$
562 
FZAK51 PAFC 241116
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
316 AM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-250030-
316 AM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

An Eastern Gulf front pushes into Southeast Alaska Fri afternoon.
A Western Gulf front slides across the Gulf through Sat 
afternoon. A second Western Gulf front moves along the North Gulf 
Coast for Sun morning.

$$

PKZ119-250030-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
316 AM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-250030-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
316 AM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 
ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-250030-
Resurrection Bay-
316 AM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-250030-
Prince William Sound-
316 AM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-250030-
Port Valdez-
316 AM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-250030-
Valdez Narrows-
316 AM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. 
Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-250030-
Valdez Arm-
316 AM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-250030-
Passage Canal-
316 AM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-250030-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
316 AM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ131-250030-
Barren Islands East-
316 AM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-250030-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
316 AM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-250030-
Chiniak Bay-
316 AM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-250030-
Marmot Bay-
316 AM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-250030-
Shelikof Strait-
316 AM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-250030-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
316 AM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-250030-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
316 AM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.

$$

PKZ141-250030-
Kachemak Bay-
316 AM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$
779 
FZAK51 PAFC 242348
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
348 PM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-251315-
348 PM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front in the northern Gulf will dissipate Sat morning. A second 
front will enter the southern Gulf Sat morning then move into the 
central Gulf Sat night. The front will then move into the northern 
Gulf Sun morning.

$$

PKZ119-251315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
348 PM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-251315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
348 PM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-251315-
Resurrection Bay-
348 PM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-251315-
Prince William Sound-
348 PM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-251315-
Port Valdez-
348 PM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-251315-
Valdez Narrows-
348 PM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-251315-
Valdez Arm-
348 PM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE wind 10 kt
after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW wind 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-251315-
Passage Canal-
348 PM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 2
ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-251315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
348 PM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-251315-
Barren Islands East-
348 PM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-251315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
348 PM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-251315-
Chiniak Bay-
348 PM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-251315-
Marmot Bay-
348 PM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-251315-
Shelikof Strait-
348 PM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-251315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
348 PM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-251315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
348 PM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.

$$

PKZ141-251315-
Kachemak Bay-
348 PM AKDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to variable less than 10 kt by
midnight. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Patchy fog.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Aug 22, 4:51 PM AKDT, 10 hours 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 22, 4:51 PM AKDT, 10 hours 18 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
451 PM AKDT Wed Aug 22 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The remnants of the low that brought significant rainfall to most
of the Gulf Coast and Southcentral is now located over the Yukon
Territory and is slowly dissipating. This has allowed for rainfall
to finally end with clearing skies over Southcentral as a weak
shortwave ridge moves overhead. As a result of this clearing some
patchy fog developed around the Knik River this morning, but this
wasn't as widespread into Cook Inlet as was initially expected as
most of clearing held off until soon after sunrise this morning.
While many areas of Southcentral are enjoying the nicest weather
day of the week now, yet another front is racing through the
Eastern Aleutians. This system is already beginning to bring rain
for Dutch Harbor eastward, and will continue tracking eastward
into Southcentral for Thursday. This is part of a broad low
located in the Western Bering that dominates the weather of the
region.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Model agreement remains very good for the incoming Aleutian low
that will bring rainfall back to the South Mainland for the end of
the work week. As this has been the case for a few days now with
this particular system, confidence remains very good in the
rainfall forecast for all of the South Mainland through Thursday.
Even with little change in the overall pattern, model agreement
then begins to break down on Saturday as the Bering low moves into
the Eastern Bering. The EC in particular is an outlier by keeping
this low much further to the west. The forecast at that point
favors model consensus which produces a more broad brushed and
lower confidence rainfall forecast for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions with light winds will continue through
Thursday morning. Ceilings will then begin falling below 5000 ft
Thursday afternoon as the next system brings rain into the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A brief break from rain is expected across much of Southcentral
this evening and overnight as a weak ridge separates a
diminishing front across the northern Susitna and Copper River
Valleys from the next approaching North Pacific front. This next
front swings quickly across the southern gulf to the northern
coast Thursday morning. Kodiak Island will only see a chance for
rain as and the boundary paces quickly to the southern Kenai. The
highest rain accumulations are expected along the Eastern Kenai,
Prince William Sound and Northeast Gulf coastal locations for this
next system. Gusty southerly flow is expected to increase as the
frontal boundary pushes inland Thursday then diminish overnight.

Showers remain possible on Friday as low level moisture remains
high and upper level waves move ahead of a Bering low. The next
low pressure system organizes along the North Pacific Friday night
bringing the next front to the souther Gulf early Saturday. There
is still high uncertainty on the track of this front, therefore
only minor edits were made on this system to increase rain along
the Gulf waters.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Saturday)...

Four separate fronts and waves are expected to impact Southwest
Alaska over the next three days. The result will be a continuation
of cool and wet conditions for the entire area to round off the
workweek into the weekend. First up is a cold front approaching
the Bering coast this afternoon. As the front pushes inland, a
soaking rain will overspread the area from southwest to northeast.
The rain will begin at the coast this evening, reaching the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley by Thursday morning. The rain will also end from
southwest to northeast behind the front, taking until Thursday
evening to finally end in the Lower Kuskokwim Valley.

The second system will be associated with the decaying Bering low
itself, as it moves northeastward into the northern Bering Friday
morning. Precipitation from that is likely to be primarily
focused on the Lower Kuskokwim Delta, with much of the rest of the
area just seeing some scattered shower activity during the day
Friday. The models are having some trouble deciding how to handle
the third system which is a wave of upper level energy bringing
moisture from the next low moving into the central Aleutians
Friday evening. A couple of the models suggest a soaking rain for
6-12 hours Friday night, while others don't show any rain at all
with Friday night remaining relatively dry. Needless to say there
remains significant uncertainty with the third system. As the
central Aleutians low continued to track northeastward, the fourth
system moves in to Southwest Alaska Saturday afternoon and
evening. This system looks to be the wettest of the four, as
moderate to at times heavy rain moves into the coast of Bristol
Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim Delta Saturday evening, with steady
soaking rains continuing to spread inland through Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Saturday)...

The sprawling but relatively weak low over the western Bering this
afternoon is the dominant feature driving the weather across the
Bering today. The low is expected to begin a slow drift eastward
as it continues to weaken through Thursday, then speeds up as it
opens up into a trough by Friday morning across the northern
Bering, with its associated moisture moving into western Alaska. A
second stronger and moisture-laden low begins impacting the
central Aleutians Thursday night. This system quickly takes over
as the dominant low across the Bering by Friday. The low will slow
to a drift near Adak Friday night, as most of its moisture
continues spreading eastward along with the jet across the eastern
Aleutians during the day Friday and into the Alaska Peninsula by
Friday night. By Saturday the low gradually tracks into the
central Bering, but it will bring with it a slug of tropical
moisture right into the eastern Bering Saturday and Saturday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Sunday through Wednesday)...
Models continue to show a large blocking high anchored over the
Central/Northern Pacific this weekend extending up into the Gulf
of Alaska and parts of the southern mainland. A positively tilted
upper level trough over the Bering is still on track to move
northeast riding over the top of the ridge on Sunday. A front
out ahead of the low will push across the southern mainland bringing
with it widespread rain as a strong southerly jet taps into
subtropical moisture and injects it into the system. Models are
still showing some disagreement regarding the timing of this front
on Sunday, with the GFS being the most progressive pushing rain
into southcentral by Sat night/early Sun morning while the
Euro/Canadian is a bit slower bringing the front through later in
the morning. Regardless, model trends over the past couple of days
have been speeding up the timing of the front, so most of the
southern mainland should expect a wet and soggy Sunday.

As the low center tracks inland on Monday, the subtropical plume
of moisture will shift its aim towards the Gulf Coast bringing
another round of heavy rain to the region, though this system
looks to be a bit more progressive that this week's so total QPF
amounts should remain lower. Models are in decent agreement
heading into Tuesday as the blocking high shifts to the west a bit
and re-amplifies over western and central mainland in response to
an upper level trough digging south across the Western Bering.
This should lead to a decent period of dry and theoretically
sunnier weather across most of the southern mainland as we head
into the middle of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW
LONG TERM...KVP

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2018Every small craft advisory in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.