Small Craft Advisory 628, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Aug 16, 2018, 3:09 AM AKDT (11:09 UTC)

Expired

Aug 16, 2018, 3:45 PM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

137 
FZAK52 PAFC 161109
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-162345-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1011 mb low 125 nm east of St. Paul will move to 115 nm
southeast of St. Paul at 1014 mb tonight then dissipate Fri 
morning. A front over the western Aleutians wil weaken Sat 
morning. A front associated with a 976 mb North Pacific low will 
move over the central and eastern Aleutians Fri night, 
intensifying through Sat.

$$

PKZ150-162345-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-162345-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-162345-
Bristol Bay-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-162345-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt in the morning becoming NE 20 kt. Seas 3 
ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-162345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt in the morning becoming NE 20 kt. Seas 3 
ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-162345-
Unalaska Bay-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-162345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt in the morning becoming N 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ173-162345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-162345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-162345-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-162345-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ177-162345-
Adak to Kiska-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ178-162345-
Kiska to Attu-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ179-162345-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-162345-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-162345-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ185-162345-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
309 AM AKDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Aug 15, 5:07 PM AKDT, 10 hours 2 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
507 PM AKDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A trough spans across Alaska this afternoon with a closed low
centered over the eastern Bering near the Kuskokwim Delta.
Scattered showers are developing along weak boundaries across the
southern mainland. West of this low, another front is situated
along the west and central Aleutians and is the next stronger
system to watch for as it stays on an easterly track through the
end of this week.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION... Models are in rather good agreement through the
first 48 hours. This is leading to moderate to high forecast
confidence regarding synoptic features, however pinpointing showers
across Southcentral and SW AK will remain tricky. Models are
struggling somewhat with fog across SW AK Thu morning, so used some
hand edits to incorporate that weather element. The low moving up
from the N Pacific Fri PM starts to cause some problems among the
members. There are some differences in timing associated with it and
strength on current runs ranges from 994 mb to 979 mb. Either way,
it does looks like it will be the next big weather maker as we head
towards the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions prevails through Thursday night, however
showers are possible through this time from low pressure moving a
front to the coast tonight. The front remains stationary along
the coast through Thursday while slowly diminishing. Light winds
may vary a bit as the surface gradient weakens as low pressure
sags southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Thu and
Fri)... Scattered shower will continue to develop through Thursday
as low pressure remains the dominant synoptic force over the
southern mainland. The main low center pushes a front across
Kodiak this evening and then swings it northeast to the coast
overnight. Only a few hundredths of new accumulation is expected
as the front quickly washes out as the low center is pulled
southeast and is absorbed into the next approaching storm system.
Friday will be the warmest and driest day of the week across the
region; however, this is only a brief break as the next storm
system moves to Kodiak Island by late Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Thu and
Fri)... A vertically stacked low will remain in place over the
Eastern Bering keeping the weather cool and unsettled for the next
couple of days. The low is readily visible just off the coast of
Cape Newenham. It will keep showers going through much of SW AK,
especially along the coast and the Aleutian Range, this evening.
The parent low will drift south towards Cold Bay on Thu. While
this should allow for a slight drying trend for most of SW AK,
there will still be a chance for some light showers throughout
Bristol Bay. Wind will be generally light across the area which
could lead to some patchy fog to start the day Thu.

For Fri, some weak, induced ridging will try to slide in from the
north. This could bring a better chance for fog Fri morning. The
day should generally be dry with the exception of a stray shower
along the higher terrain and the Bristol Bay coastline. A
developing N Pacific low will approach the area from south to
north late Fri. This will bring an increase in E to SE winds
across the area overnight into Sat. These winds will initially
provide some lee-side drying (downsloping) before rain moves back
into Bristol Bay Sat.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Thu and
Fri)...
The domain will be split by 2 separate weather systems. First is a
rather tight, vertically stacked low over the Eastern Bering. The
other is an elongating front over the Western Aleutians. The first
low will bring sub-small craft level winds and showers with it as
it drifts towards Cold Bay through Thu. The front along the
Western Aleutians will bring steady rain and small-craft
southeasterly winds through Thu morning. The front will weaken as
it stretches towards the Central Aleutians.

By Fri, the front will drift south of the chain and absorb the
previously mentioned low. This will leave the area rather quiet to
start the day. Attention will then shift to a developing N Pacific
low. This system looks to move towards Sand Point bringing gale-
force sustained winds with storm-force gusts. It will also have a
deep sub-tropical moisture fetch associated with it allowing for
another round of moderate-heavy rain across the Eastern Aleutians
and Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term beginning Saturday night has two dominant ridges
with a low in between. The first ridge stretches from the North
Pacific through the western Aleutians and into the western Bering.
The other ridge extends through the eastern Gulf and into the
southern mainland. The low in between the ridges will be south of
the Alaska Peninsula with its front pushing into southwest
Alaska. The front will track over the rest of the southern
mainland through the weekend bringing rain with it. With the
ridge to the east holding strong, moist southerly flow looks to
continue for the southern mainland through early next week.
Meanwhile out west, the ridge will flatten out allowing for
another system to move in from the west over the weekend. The main
low with this system looks to settle in over the central Bering
by mid week setting up for a rainy pattern.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH/MO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...DK

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2018Every small craft advisory in 2018

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.