Small Craft Advisory 577, NWS Anchorage, AK

112 
FZAK51 PAFC 282336
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
336 PM AKDT Sat Jul 28 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-291245-
336 PM AKDT Sat Jul 28 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front in the western Gulf remains nearly stationary through Sun 
afternoon and then moves further west Mon afternoon. High pressure 
builds over the Gulf Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-291245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
336 PM AKDT Sat Jul 28 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-291245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
336 PM AKDT Sat Jul 28 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-291245-
Resurrection Bay-
336 PM AKDT Sat Jul 28 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-291245-
Prince William Sound-
336 PM AKDT Sat Jul 28 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming 
variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-291245-
Port Valdez-
336 PM AKDT Sat Jul 28 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming 
variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-291245-
Valdez Narrows-
336 PM AKDT Sat Jul 28 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-291245-
Valdez Arm-
336 PM AKDT Sat Jul 28 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming 
variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-291245-
Passage Canal-
336 PM AKDT Sat Jul 28 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-291245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
336 PM AKDT Sat Jul 28 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-291245-
Barren Islands East-
336 PM AKDT Sat Jul 28 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-291245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
336 PM AKDT Sat Jul 28 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-291245-
Chiniak Bay-
336 PM AKDT Sat Jul 28 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog in the morning.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-291245-
Marmot Bay-
336 PM AKDT Sat Jul 28 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog in the morning.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-291245-
Shelikof Strait-
336 PM AKDT Sat Jul 28 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-291245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
336 PM AKDT Sat Jul 28 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less 
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-291245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
336 PM AKDT Sat Jul 28 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less 
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-291245-
Kachemak Bay-
336 PM AKDT Sat Jul 28 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in 
the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

790 
FZAK51 PAFC 291143
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
343 AM AKDT Sun Jul 29 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-300045-
343 AM AKDT Sun Jul 29 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front over the North Gulf Coast through the Central Gulf slips
Westward and dissipates by Mon morning. Eastern Gulf high 
pressure spreads Westward across the Gulf through Tue morning.

$$

PKZ119-300045-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
343 AM AKDT Sun Jul 29 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-300045-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
343 AM AKDT Sun Jul 29 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-300045-
Resurrection Bay-
343 AM AKDT Sun Jul 29 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-300045-
Prince William Sound-
343 AM AKDT Sun Jul 29 2018

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Patchy fog. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-300045-
Port Valdez-
343 AM AKDT Sun Jul 29 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-300045-
Valdez Narrows-
343 AM AKDT Sun Jul 29 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-300045-
Valdez Arm-
343 AM AKDT Sun Jul 29 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-300045-
Passage Canal-
343 AM AKDT Sun Jul 29 2018

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. Widespread rain
showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-300045-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
343 AM AKDT Sun Jul 29 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-300045-
Barren Islands East-
343 AM AKDT Sun Jul 29 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-300045-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
343 AM AKDT Sun Jul 29 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-300045-
Chiniak Bay-
343 AM AKDT Sun Jul 29 2018

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-300045-
Marmot Bay-
343 AM AKDT Sun Jul 29 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-300045-
Shelikof Strait-
343 AM AKDT Sun Jul 29 2018

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-300045-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
343 AM AKDT Sun Jul 29 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-300045-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
343 AM AKDT Sun Jul 29 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-300045-
Kachemak Bay-
343 AM AKDT Sun Jul 29 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
443 PM AKDT Fri Jul 27 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper level low centered over Bristol Bay continues to drive
moisture from the Gulf into the southern Mainland. At the surface,
a weaker low has formed just south of Kodiak Island. Radar
imagery shows scattered showers across the Cook Inlet region and
areas in and around Prince William Sound. Surface observations
also confirm some lingering showers in the southwestern part of
the state.

To the west, the leading front of the Kamchatka low has pushed
across the Bering and is clearly defined on water vapor satellite
imagery over the central Aleutians. Also of note is the upper
level jet over the western Aleutians with max values near 90
knots that is working to steer the Kamchatka low southeastward.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement through the early weekend. Model
solutions indicate the upper level Bristol Bay low will phase into
the upper level Kamchatka low in the southern Bering beginning
Sat afternoon. For early next week, models disagree slightly on
the exact location of this large Bering low by Mon afternoon. At
this time, the GFS and NAM place the low center just west of Saint
Paul while the EC places the low center northwest of Saint Paul.

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers this afternoon and evening will taper off overnight. With
the lower atmosphere remaining moist there is a possibility of
patchy fog forming anywhere with breaks in the clouds overnight,
However, for PANC a persistent VFR ceiling will likely keep skies
cloudy and fog less likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3...Sat
through Mon)...
Several waves of rain will push from south to north through the
area until ridging starts to build back in early next week. First
things first, scattered rain showers have once again established
residency across much of Southcentral. These will be on and off
through most of the evening before finally waning overnight. A
slightly stronger area of low pressure then starts to approach
Kodiak Island during the night. Models have trended a tad stronger
with this low, so we have increased winds to gale-force for the
Eastern Barren Islands Sat. Because of the fairly tight gradient
associated with it, southeast flow over the Kenai and Chugach
Mountains look to set up the typical downslope range shadow across
much of Cook Inlet. So while some scattered showers are possible
in these areas, the steadiest and heaviest rainfall will certainly
be across the Gulf Coast into Prince William Sound.

Rain will linger across Prince William Sound and much of the Gulf
Coast to start Sun. Conditions will be very slow to improve as
onshore flow persists ushering in many weak pieces of energy.
Expect widespread cloud cover to persist. But higher heights
start to slide back over the area from the Eastern Gulf as we
head toward the start of the work week. This should allow for a
drying trend across just about all areas. The further east in the
domain you are (Copper River Basin), the better chance of seeing
sunshine. This sunshine will likely help enhance instability and
could lead to some gusty southeast winds and better chance for
convection along the mountains by Mon afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
The long-wave trough over the Bering will remain in place through
the weekend. At the surface, a series of surface lows pinwheeling
around the periphery of the trough will keep clouds and periodic
showers over the AKPEN and southwestern coast. The first of these
lows will continue to lift north away from the coast tonight,
limiting showers to the immediate coast. A second low move into
the eastern Bering early Saturday bringing another round of rain
across the Alaska Peninsula and western coast with scattered
showers for the middle Kuskokwim Valley. As the low approaches,
the pressure gradient between it and an amplifying ridge over
the Gulf of Alaska will tighten, resulting in an increase in
southeasterly wind gusts across the region. This repeats for
Sunday as the second low lifts northwest and is absorbed into
a third strengthening low moving into the southern Bering. This
system will swing a front along the southwest coast and produce
another round of rain and gusty southerly winds. Gale-force winds
are possible in line from western Bristol Bay to south of Nunivak
Island Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
A low northeast of Atka will continue to track toward the eastern
Bering overnight. This will bring rain and gusty southerly winds
for the eastern Bering through Saturday. A weak ridge over the
central Aleutians will weaken and slide south tonight as a
developing low over the western Aleutians advances east. This low
will continue to strengthen through Saturday as it lifts north
into the southern Bering by early Sunday morning. Widespread
precipitation and small-craft advisory winds will develop around
the low as it slows and becomes nearly stationary through Sunday.
Winds begin to diminish Monday as the low fills and lifts to the
northwest. A building ridge upstream of the low slides over the
western Aleutians for Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term outlook is showing a bit of a pattern change as a
more progressive pattern is taking shape over Alaska next week.
Starting Monday night, a persistent upper level low will continue
to rotate over the Bering Sea while an upper ridge will dominate
the eastern half of Alaska and the panhandle, with axis located
directly over southcentral. This means cloudy and wet weather will
continue over the Aleutians, Bering, and western Alaska, while
dry conditions will be seen east of the Alaska Range. By Wednesday
morning, a ridge begins to build over the western Aleutians which
will push the upper low east over mainland Alaska spreading rain
from southwest east across southcentral Wednesday into Thursday.
Models begin to diverge some at this point as to where the low
goes, though there is some consensus that a secondary upper low
will ride over the top of the ridge building over the Bering and
drop southeast down across the western mainland and southcentral
towards the end of the work week. A stout cold front looks to
sweep across the area ahead of the low which would bring colder
air (850 mb temps below 5 C) and widespread precipitation. The
good news is models do show the Bering ridge pushing east over
the mainland by the weekend which could bring a few days of
sunny warm weather.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 131.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JR
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MSO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TM
LONG TERM...KVP